Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[lonrho] 31/7/2007 10:22

Slapper

You could be right as baltic index is now at a high but that is irrelevant as they are still on a prospective p/e of under 5.Company news releases show ships ,weights,charter rates and duration.Anyone can work out what next years profits and 2008/9 are likely to be.These are contained earlier in this thread.

[slapdash] 31/7/2007 10:17

sure but WHAT is the fixed rate they secured the ships under for the next two years....

slapper ... could be at lower frieght rates than we have now.... Slapper

[rafieh] 31/7/2007 10:09

I think there will be a delayed reaction to the results over the next few days. We should not forget this is a company which deals with greasy non-glamerous ships rather than microchips.

[giddygoat] 31/7/2007 09:05

Looks good to me. Results as expected IMO.

Now puts us on a Current Year to 08 P/E of 5 and a Forward Yr to 09 P/E of 3

I like these bits

"Our objective has been to create a solid foundation which will enable our
company to continue growing prudently, taking full advantage of the positive
fundamentals of the dry bulk shipping sector. Our management team has a
substantial ownership stake in the company thereby aligning our interests to
those of all shareholders."

"We seek to employ our vessels under medium to long term period charters with
reputable charterers. This strategy enables us to generate visible and
predictable cash flows and enhances our profitability. In this context, 100% of
our fleet operating days for calendar 2007 and 83% for calendar 2008 are already secured under fixed rate period employment."

"We seek to employ our vessels under medium to long term period charters with
reputable charterers. This strategy enables us to generate visible and
predictable cash flows and enhances our profitability. In this context, 100% of
our fleet operating days for calendar 2007 and 83% for calendar 2008 are already secured under fixed rate period employment."

[slapdash] 31/7/2007 08:09

so is this good or not??? slapper

[saucepan] 30/7/2007 12:48

Thanks for the feedback. Good luck for tomorrow everyone. I shall be travelling, so probably will not get the opportunity to review and comment until the evening.

[slapdash] 30/7/2007 11:20

agreed - it is all about the forward looking statement and sentiment...

anyone following ACMG shipping... are ship brokers not owners but appear to be hitting new highs and had good results... also appear to be more highly rated than here..

Slapper

[luckyjonah] 30/7/2007 11:12

I think the data on ShareScope looks duff. Even the revenue looks wrong, bu the EPS looks totally wrong. The number of shares in issue has risen:

Nov 2005: 18,542,556
May 2006: 20,016,396
Nov 2006: 23,352,462
Present: 40,032,792

My own figures for the last 6 months figures (ie. 2H2006) are:

Revenue: $18.7m
Profit: $ 6.6m
EPS: $ 0.16 = 8.3p

If I add this to the last published figures from 1H2006 I get these full year figures:

Revenue: $27.6m = £13.8m
Profit: $ 6.7m = £3.3m
EPS: $ 0.21 = 10.7p

I think these are quite close to Jeffries' figures - anyone looking at these figures will still think GOC is about fully priced at 122p. But of course the interesting bit is the future earnings, since the extra ships really start to contribute in 0708 - that pushes my full year figures for 0708 to:

Revenue: $55.4m = £27.7m
Profit: $21.7m = £10.9m
EPS: $ 0.54 = 27.1p

...which leaves the current price on a forward PE of 4.5.

[rafieh] 27/7/2007 19:09

Well, the markets have tanked across the globe, but GOC has barely fallen. Isn't it the sign that those in the know have a clear idea as to what the results may bring for the sp?

[rafieh] 27/7/2007 08:52

A drop this morning, but not much sales. People who know basic maths would be very reluctant to sell "half price".

[courant] 26/7/2007 20:59

Or, indeed, a glass of Ouzo ;-)

Just read the Shares magazine article. A bit of a poor piece of journalism, no mention of forecast PEs or anything and, yes, they did mix their ships up, didn't they!

Courant

[fussball] 26/7/2007 19:35

A "no movement" day today counts as a very positive signal to me in an otherwise drastic market.

Roll on the 31st. I'm planning on settling down with a beer (glass of grog?) to watch the live feed.

[luckyjonah] 26/7/2007 14:22

I wrote to the Editor of Shares magazine last month "complaining" at the lack of coverage for GOC when they have given positive write ups to Goldenport (GPRT) and Globus Maritime (GLBS) who are on twice the PE - I also provided latest figures for comparison. They replied to say the company looked very interesting and said they would try to provide coverage at the next piece of news... true to their word they have given GOC a third of a page relating to the new ship in today's issue. The mention of June's RNS confuses the details on new ships and they didn't really mention any figures or forecasts, but generally very positive and given a BUY recommendation. Hopefully spreading the word a bit further!

[h d shoring] 24/7/2007 13:40

Quite right lonrho he was not prepared to audit invisible stock .With goc I never worry .

[lonrho] 24/7/2007 13:08

it is bent but accountants spend all their time making the figures look better than they really are and since the prospective p/e on this share is amazingly low already i wouldn't worry too much.

[h d shoring] 24/7/2007 13:04

Cheers Courant had me worried for a while.Predictable the figures may be, but how the accountants present them is not.[My son left that profession because he felt it was bent ].

[slapdash] 24/7/2007 11:13

all will be revealed on the 31st as they say... but with the BDI at a high (possibly and all-time high if they mess things up they have got what is coming to them...

Slapper

[courant] 24/7/2007 10:42

Yes, absolutely! I was just disagreeing with your "how long is a piece of string" sentiment. In GOC's case, your piece of string is of a pretty predictable length. Sorry for the lack of clarity!

Courant

[h d shoring] 24/7/2007 10:35

Sorry you have lost me Courant.
Are you saying you agree the results will be better than last time and better still next year or not .??

[h d shoring] 24/7/2007 10:10

I think the question with the results is how long is the piece of string ?
We are happy that they will be better than last time due to increased turnover and better rates ,but how much better remains to be seen .12 months from now we should have a whole bale of string .

[courant] 24/7/2007 10:04

An interesting comment on the BDI came my way by virtue of the fullermoney daily email. There were three main points:

1) Although new shipping growth seems set to outstrip predicted demand growth, a key factor (as highlighted in GOC's reports too) is the underexpansion in port facilities. I read somewhere else that at any point in time, there are something like 70 ships waiting outside Newcastle, Australia:



This reduces the effective supply of shipping and should keep the BDI supported, despite the growth in supply.

2) A short term factor is the recent earthquake in Japan, which forced the closure of a Japanese nuclear power plant. Thus, they may be forced to buy coal to keep up their power generation. (Japan is the world's largest importer of coal and thermal coal makes up something like 25-30% of BDI trade)

3) A longer term factor is the rise in temperatures in Japan (and the Far East in general) is causing increased power consumption through the increased use of air conditioners. Apparently, June this year saw a 3.5% increase in fuel consumption over a year ago. This is set to continue.

In summary, all looks "good" for the BDI!

Courant

[luckyjonah] 24/7/2007 09:01

Personally I think it's the over-hyped shares that rise on rumour (and are sold on news). The undiscovered gems with little hype will only bring new buyers on results - unless of course they are bad :-)

[kneath] 24/7/2007 08:25

Guys - one thing I can never seen to get quite right - is selling immediately prior to results a good move?