Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[generalcuster] 29/6/2006 08:40

so Tartsinis became the CEO? i was right - for the first time ever. and surprise surprise he ditched the results of the strategic review that shareholders money has been spent on. Vintiadis was bad and the saviour he had thought he had found kicked him out. He should have done a deal with Globus who had money, were transparent and had a plan. Now GOC has a CEO who's experience in shipping is extremely limited and experience of the capital markets is zero. great.

he appears to have contacts tho so I reckon he will find some sucker to pour money into the company.

at least this company is never boring.

[debbiegee] 19/5/2006 10:07

morning is anybody going to the EGM today ?

[sharegod] 16/5/2006 17:08

seem to be doing all right charter wise

[calumofthenorth] 11/5/2006 19:31

The Globus statement can be found here:



I'm quite glad that Globus have been seen off (although Trafalgar may still vote yes at the EGM). I think their offer was an attempt to get a knockdown price for some vessels due to the low share price which turned out to be stronger than they anticipated. I'm still happy with the cash flow and remain a happy holder. I think the company will make £3m FCF this calender year, if they have a 50% dividend that equates to a 10% yield at the current price. They may impair the vessel values but that has no effect on cash flow, and everyone is already aware that it might occur.

[generalcuster] 11/5/2006 16:01

Bruce - Globus issued an RNS on May 8 (number 6295C). I saw it on the LSE site under GO news but strangely it seems to have disappeared.

It could have been their intention to make a quick buck but I doubt they would have gone through the hassle of getting themselves nominated at the EGM with the possiblility of them actually being voted for, without having an interest in the company. Probably the 70p was just too attractive a return to refuse.

Good luck to you - I've enjoyed reading your thoughtful posts and I hope you make a bit of money out of the stock. Just don't hold it for too long if, in the next few months, nothing material has changed. But shipping stocks can surprise - look at Goldenport - so maybe I'm wrong.

[debbiegee] 11/5/2006 14:41

dont understand the world,held at 69 because it seemed obvious that stake building hadnt slowed down ,now weve got the proof !
Can anybody offer any ideas why the share price is down today ?

[bruce the goldfish] 11/5/2006 13:01

General, where did you hear about Globus selling their entire shareholding? and the fact that it was at "a substantial premium to the current NAV". If they did sell their shares at the reported 70p then I do not believe that it is too concerning given that there was a buyer for them (possibly in the Trafalgar Funds, who have today announced that they have increased their holding in the company to 32.85% of the issued share capital). I wonder whether Globus had any intentions in the first place re: the company other than making a quick buck from actually trading the shares on sentiment. As for NAV it is one story from the directors and another from speculative investors.

It was unlikely that the share price was going to increase every day upto the EGM, so you should expect a little shakeout. I still think imo that there is more to come from GOC and continue to be a willing holder...

BTG

[bruce the goldfish] 08/5/2006 12:15

Well as expected the gains have continued with a sure pace over the past few trading days. In the meanwhile we have had an announcement regarding a substantial holding in the company - acquired by two Trafalgar Asset Manager Funds of 19.8% but no mention of what price was paid for the shares. I expect other announcements to follow in due course as there have been some significant transactions recently (and again today at the time of writing this post) and there still appears to be a willing buyer out there, which is further pushing the share price upwards.

If the sustained rise in the share price continues over the next couple of weeks in the run up to the EGM on 19th May then it is anyones guess really where the share price will end up. I now think the likelihood of a deal at NAV is remote imo and personally think that there are some value investors out there (like Trafalgar) who can see a much brighter future for the company (probably under new management) leveraging the existing assets of the company to deliver on the significant cash flow ability of GOC.

Agree with generalcuster in that the shares are probably now trading around NAV (c. 70p imo) and imo this will act as a support level in the lead up to the EGM.

BTG

[calumofthenorth] 02/5/2006 17:16

BTG,

As far as I am aware the 3% etc. rules is a condition of the Takeover Panel, I suspect that Ian Barcaly's broker was unaware the Company was not covered and made a disclosure. I imagine he won't be making any further disclosures. I've debated sending a letter to GOC HQ in Jersey and get a shareholder register but I suspect it may just say 'HSBC Global Nominees' etc.

I'm pondering the significance of the dates that are being used here, the EGM will occur approx. 1 week before the results are given (which are likely to show substantial cashflow given 2 ships were still on their expensive contracts). The Company says it will consider options in early June, just after the results are out.

Not sure about the share price movements, I suspect it'll keep moving up as we approach the EGM.

Calum

[bruce the goldfish] 02/5/2006 17:02

Share price keeps going from strength to strength and some very substantial buying yet again today, with again some late trades. There appears to be a very keen buyer lurking in the background.

However, I do have a couple of queries. Both in relation to the recent significant buying. Firstly, where are the MM's actually getting their stock from as imo surely there is no overhang to clear. The fact that the MM's are buying stock as well suggests that this is not the case. Secondly, surely whoever is doing the buying (if it is one party) has gone way past the disclosure limit of 3%.

Would appreciate anyones insight on this...

BTG

[bruce the goldfish] 28/4/2006 14:22

Camy, with the recent strength in the shareprice I think the first barrier to be really tested will be around 70p, which is circa NAV.

However, I believe that a free cash-flow based valuation would be a much more appropriate bases on which to value GOC. On estimated cashflows of circa £3million for 2006 a reasonable multiple of say 6 would give you a company valuation of around £18million - around 88p a share. A multiple of 8 gives a value of £24million, which equates to circa £1.18 a share. These are not particularly optimistic multiples, just reasonable given the current market conditions.

As far as I can see there is still plenty more to come from GOC imo, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

BTG

[camy] 28/4/2006 13:47

More heavy buying at offer. Looks more like we are headed for at least 68.6p

[bruce the goldfish] 28/4/2006 13:43

General, points well made.

Has anyone else noted that trade of 2.33 million shares at current offer of 55p. From my calcs based on current ordinary shares in issue of 20.4 million shares that represents circa 11.3% of the issed share capital of the company, a hefty buy by any standard.

I believe there may be a willing seller in the wings or a possible overhang to be cleared, hence the fact the shareprice has not shot up by 50% on this trade alone.

BTG

[generalcuster] 28/4/2006 12:49

Bruce

I agree that it's not all the management's fault that the share price has fallen so much - the market does have a lot to do with it - but if you compare the fall against DryShips, which has fallen the most amoungst US drybulk shippers, it is much more severe. IMO, this is a reflection of Go's management's incompetence.

What gets me is 2 things:

1. Management have had months to come up with some sort of strategic alternative and the best they can do is hire someone else to do the thinking for them.
2. That the best argument against the Globus offer is that it is not structured. Its certainly far more structured than anything management have to offer i.e. "please wait until June for us to come up with something." Probably Globus will respond with a clear proposal.

This is the same as it has always been with this management - they tell the market very little and when they do, there is nothing of substance.

At least with Globus we'll get an experienced management team and some more cash. Ship values are falling so cash is better than ships now anyway. If anything, the fact that the Globus offer has changed to cash rather than ships, is better.

[bruce the goldfish] 28/4/2006 11:20

The pre-EGM letter certainly makes interesting reading. The director's really appear to have gone cold on the Globus proposal after they have sold the fleet that they were originally planning to bring under the remit of GOC. To be honest, imo with Globus not clearly defining any form of future strategy (particularly with respect to crystallizing shareholder value for current shareholders) I have now taken a more firmer stance against the Globus proposal myself.

As for the current director's of GOC I think the demise of the company's share price since floatation is more due to the downward trend of the Dry Bulk index rather than their incompetence. The shipping industry itself is very much cyclical and difficult to predict and is obviously outside the control of the company. Although you could argue that they were indeed the people who overpayed for the GOC fleet in the first place.

GOC has received a number of different proposals re: the future direction of the company. Again I think the prospect of a further equity fundraising is unlikely given the current sentiment surounding the company and with the depressed Dry Bulk Index. The main strategic options for the company based on a number of different proposals received are detailed as:-

* the outright sale of the Company;

* the injection of further vessels and/or cash into the Company; and

* the injection of further vessels and cash and an offer to shareholders to purchase their existing shareholdings.

The letter also stated that "in principle the Directors favour defined approaches of this nature as they demonstrate a willingness to inject cash or assets and/or crystallise shareholder value" - an assumed swipe at the Globus offer.

It will be interesting to see the exact details of these proposals, particularly in relation to either the possible take-over price or the extent of control any new investor will obtain and the terms involved if this is the favoured option.

BTG

[maksud] 28/4/2006 07:38

well guys i recon they have a better offer for them to reject this one .any views.

[camy] 27/4/2006 15:43

Bruce: Fair assessment. Sorry I can't help on take-out price or RNS timing.

[bruce the goldfish] 26/4/2006 19:51

Camy, what are your expectations re: a possible take-out price?

I posted this a couple of weeks back re: my estimates for a winding-up of the company and the distribution of surplus cash to shareholders.

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At the interims the NAV of GOC was $42.6 million (c. £23.5 million at forex rate of $1.81/£ @ 30/09/05) of which $62.6 million was the carrying value of the 3 vessels. However, the directors announced on 5 Jan 2006 that the fleet had been independently valued at in excess of $40 million.

With a fleet value of say pessimistically $40 million and net debt of $15.5 million (as announced yesterday) this gives an estimated NAV of circa $24.5 million (c. £14 million based on today's forex rate of $1.75/£).

With shares in issue of 20,404,595 and a NAV of £14 million this equates to a NAV per share of 68.6p. A substantial discount to the current share price.

I actually wonder whether the investor that has requisitioned the EGM is an asset raider (possibly Ian Barclay who announced in early March 2006 a shareholding of 815,000 shares – which represents approx 4.3% of the issued share capital of GOC).

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Still speculation on that last point, but surely with all the large recent trades we are due an annoucement re: someone who has taken a sizeable holding in the company. Does anyone know how long a shareholder has before it has to inform the company it has passed the 3% shareholding point.

Thanks in advance

BTG

[camy] 26/4/2006 16:28

More heavy buying near offer. Time to buy some more. Up again tomorrow.

[camy] 20/4/2006 16:01

Now a T trade buyer as well. All the ducks in a row. Onwards and upwards.

[bruce the goldfish] 20/4/2006 11:12

Bang on Camy, someone was really building up a position there. I am assuming that all of those buys were from the same source (or possibly entities acting in concert). My previous post (no. 154) details some of the recent significant trades of late. Very interesting anyway and further gains increasingly likely if the buyer still intends to purchase further shares.

BTG

[camy] 19/4/2006 20:19

Heavy buys/swaps at offer. Nice rise tomorrow.