Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[slapdash] 23/7/2007 21:29

people betting on results??? Slap

[luckyjonah] 23/7/2007 14:44

There are a lot more trades than usual today, I wonder if GOC were tipped somewhere at the weekend?

Re the BDI, GOC's new management have been securing long term charter contracts which smooth out the volatility of the BDI - in terms of the raw numbers the current net profit is about 30% of revenue, so they could remain profitable with quite a big drop in long-term rates. I think there could be an element of negativity on the sector should rates fall, but the profit coming through is paying down the debt fast (c $11m pa on forecasts). Roll on the 31st and hopefully some decent coverage!

[saucepan] 23/7/2007 13:44

Courant: agreed. There is a lot of transparency on the GOC website, too: including a detailed table of all GOC's ships, duration of charters, rates, etc.

I do think things are looking good; not least the buying interest that has come onto the thread today.

[slapdash] 23/7/2007 11:42

luckyjonah - this is an AIM stock so it could be a con. I don't know how but wily management always finds a way. We shall see.

Slapper

[luckyjonah] 23/7/2007 11:39

slapdash, how can it be a con? The cashflows are very transparent, the contracts are booked and disclosed, and everything is spelt out in the accounts. So it just comes down to valuation - you either think a PE of 4 is correct or you think it's too low.

[slapdash] 23/7/2007 10:01

I have also gone long....

I think this is one of those.. you either sell quickly as it is a con... or stay in and get some big gains kind of stocks...

slapper

[cactus100] 23/7/2007 09:56

Have just joined here - bring on the results

[tinker] 23/7/2007 08:36

And the chart looks excellent. Holding above the 120p breakout and showing a golden cross between the 20 day and 50 day moving averages.

[saucepan] 22/7/2007 17:15

Looks like GOC are determined to pay a maiden dividend. There is even a special section to this effect now on the company's website:

Investor relations: dividend policy

We expect to generate relatively predictable cash flows and net income as a result of our operations and chartering policy. Whilst wishing to retain sufficient cash flow to generate growth in the business and remaining mindful of the cyclical nature of the industry, we consider it appropriate to return a portion of our income to investors by way of dividend.

Accordingly, we intend to pay as dividend, approximately one half of our net income, excluding profits or possible losses (at the discretion of the Board) from vessel acquisitions/disposals.

The dividend shall be paid semi annually commencing from the year end i.e. May 31, 2007. Typically we would expect to declare approximately one third of the annual dividend at the release of our half year financial statements with the balance being declared at the year end.

[www.gocarriers.com]

[saucepan] 20/7/2007 13:11

A reminder of what was said in the 21 February Interims:

The successful rights offering last October has enabled us to expand the fleet with the acquisitions of GO Patoro and GO Trader. With these additional vessels we can now expect to deliver significant profitability for the forthcoming period and we look forward to growing our fleet through further timely and selective acquisitions.

The Company expects to generate relatively predictable cash flows and net income
as a result of its operations and chartering policy. Whilst wishing to retain
sufficient cash flow to generate growth in the business and remaining mindful of
the cyclical nature of the industry, the company considers it appropriate to
return a portion of its income to investors by way of dividend.

Accordingly, the Company intends to adopt an initial dividend policy of paying
approximately one half of its net income, excluding profits or possible losses
(at the discretion of the Board) from vessel acquisitions/disposals, as a
dividend.

The company has delivered on the promise of acquiring more vessels.

What I shall be looking for on 31 July is confirmation of increased profitability and a dividend. If both of these are delivered, I think the market will really wake up.

[saucepan] 19/7/2007 16:18

GOC inching up to 52-week highs, and it looks like previous 120p resistance has turned into support.

Results due on 31 July, of course. Exciting times

[luckyjonah] 13/7/2007 08:46

I thought you needed 75% to take it private (ie. de-list) and 90% for compulsory purchase - and their latest purchase was at £1.18 which would set the floor price for any buy-out in the next 12 months. However, I would have thought with $57m-odd in bank debt that the listing is vital for them at the moment in terms of their credit rating - the listing gives them superior access to funds, so I can't see how they will benefit particularly from de-listing... they have already stated their dividend policy which will provide significant income and attract institutions (hopefully!), FWIW I just think they are running the company properly and efficiently like they should!

[wilddonkey] 12/7/2007 17:38

What really scares me is the possibility of them being taken private by the two directors with the huge shareholding - what are the rules for this kind of thing. I mean they could in theory say if the price got down to 1 quid or something "ok we're taking this thing private at 105p" and the resulting vote would have their 70% holding saying "Yes". What's the security against that happening ?

[h d shoring] 12/7/2007 16:28

Count me in as the last rights was at 60+p and they have not done bad since then .

[courant] 12/7/2007 16:24

Quick thought... the results conference call and webcast sounds remarkably switched-on for a relatively illiquid 50m AiM company. I wonder if the GOC are upping the ante with regards to financial PR? Maybe a placing is on the way, or they may want to raise some more cash from the market at some point in the future, to fund expansion?

Any comments?

Courant
(fully aware that this is mere speculation, but it's not often small AiM companies do this!)

[h d shoring] 12/7/2007 15:21

Twice it has bounced off the 120p glass roof ,but I think the results should achieve the break through at the end of the month .

[tuckswood8] 11/7/2007 10:09

Notice of 2007 Results
11 July 2007

Global Oceanic Carriers Ltd. Announces Date for the Release of 2007 Annual Results, Conference Call and Webcast

Earnings Release: Tuesday, July 31, 2007, before the market opens in London.

Conference Call and Webcast: Tuesday, July 31, 2007, at 4:00 p.m. GMT, 11:00 a.m. EDT, 6:00 p.m. Athens time.

Global Oceanic Carriers Limited (AIM:GOC), a global provider of marine transportation services for dry bulk cargoes, announces today that on Tuesday, July 31, 2007, before the market opens in London, it will release its Preliminary Results for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2007.

The same day, at 4:00 p.m. GMT, 11:00 a.m. EDT, 6:00 p.m. Athens time the company's management will host a conference call to discuss the results.

Conference Call details:
Participants should dial into the call 10 minutes prior to the scheduled time using the following numbers: 0800-953-0329 (from the UK) 1-866-819-7111 (from the US), or [phone] (all other callers). Please quote "Global Oceanic Carriers".

In case of any problem with the above numbers, please dial 0800-694-1503 (from the UK) 1-866-223-0615 (from the US), or [phone] (all other callers). Quote "Global Oceanic Carriers".

A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available until August 7, 2007 by dialing 0800-953-1533 (from the UK), 1-866-247-4222 (from the US), or [phone] (all other callers). Access Code: 6478074#

Slides and audio webcast:
There will also be a live -and then archived- webcast of the conference call, accessible through the Global Oceanic Carriers website (www.gocarriers.com). Participants to the live webcast should register on the website approximately 10 minutes prior to the start of the webcast.

For further information:

Global Oceanic Carriers Limited
Michael Tartsinis, Chief Executive Officer Tel: [phone]
[e-mail] www.gocarriers.com

Jefferies International Limited
Nick Davies Tel. + 44 (0) 207 618 3706
[e-mail] www.jefferies.com

Media enquiries:

Taylor Rafferty - Capital Link (London)
Devina Artley Tel. [phone]
[e-mail]

Capital Link, Inc. (New York)
Paul Lampoutis Tel. [phone]
[e-mail] www.capitallink.com

Notes to Editors

Global Oceanic Carriers Limited is a global provider of marine transportation services for dry bulk cargoes through the ownership, management and chartering of dry bulk carriers. The company is incorporated in Jersey and has its principal executive offices in Athens, Greece.

The company's current fleet includes five dry bulk carriers, comprised of one Capesize, two Panamax, one Handymax and one Handysize vessel. Global Oceanic Carriers has also entered into two agreements to acquire two Handymax vessels scheduled for delivery in August and October 2007, thereby expanding its fleet to a total of seven dry bulk carriers with an aggregate carrying capacity of 456,273 dwt.

[rafieh] 11/7/2007 08:36

Idioterna,
Institutios wanting to sell their holdings would not change the fundamentals of the company in question. It may only temporarily delay the advance in the share price. Remember what happend a few weeks ago when an instituion sold more than 5m of GOC shares, apparently at a discount. It only stopped us for a few weeks.

[h d shoring] 10/7/2007 21:53

Why would they want to dump the stock .they are getting capital rise with plenty more probably to come .there is a previously announce dividend policy in place.
Surely if you buy at 118p and it looks like reaching 200p+ you will only think of dumping when it gets there .To get rid of a large % of the company would probably need a takeover to achieve .

[idioterna] 10/7/2007 13:10

Yes & no. The problem is that we have one massive shareholder with a purchase price of 118 and he can dump into the market wenever the price suits him. And, let's be honest, this ain't exactly a big volume share.

[courant] 10/7/2007 13:10

This is excellent news. FWIW, I'd expect these to be rated on a PE of around 10, given the transparency of earnings and the peer group average PE. So, fair value for these, in my book is around 270p. These are still at a substantial discount!!!

Clearly, there's also the growth potential from them taking on extra ships at earnings enhancing rates (their stated aim). There's also the opportunity (and some risk) in the renegotiation of charter rates. Judging by the recent charter rates, compared to legacy, the BDI would have to drop by around 30% before this started becoming an issue. So, way more upside than down in my book!

Courant

[saucepan] 10/7/2007 11:52

It looks like we are now on the point of a breakout to 52-week highs, which won't do any harm either.

[luckyjonah] 10/7/2007 10:01

After plugging in the figures, I make this acquisition worth 2.1p EPS next year (partial year as the ship will only operate for 8 months of it) taking the 0708 EPS figure to 27.1p. Although the share price has gone up nearly 9% since the previous RNS in June, this still leaves them on a forward PE of 4.1.

[saucepan] 10/7/2007 08:11

Having now had time to review, this looks yet another great and value enhancing deal.

With such visible, extensive, and secured forward earnings, this stock has to be re-rated soon, surely?

This is especially when we are still below floatation price, yet the prospects of the company have been transformed.