Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[lonrho] 08/6/2007 11:33

mm 70p now that would be a pe of less than three and a yield of over 15% ,do you really think it will go that low before people catch onto this.

[the drewster] 08/6/2007 11:08

pb, unlike us to be so much in agreement. If 100 doesn't hold, 90 is a given, then 80 is likely in my opinion.
70 looks a good strong long term support line, but not clear if it wants to go that low and test it. Would be a buyer if there was a clear and successful test of 70p, probably in large blocks too.

[pbracken] 08/6/2007 10:39

You shouldn't be so dismissive of the great unwashed. If this level diesn't hold, 85/90p remains a distinct short term possibility.

[henryatkin] 05/6/2007 21:15

PP when I buy for value, I tend to stay in untill value is achieved or bad news is reported - which ever is first. Can take a long time but that's the slow drip of wealth from the impatient to the patient.

[abubryn] 05/6/2007 15:08

Glad that the rabble has been and gone .Now as quiet reigns we can start the slow move north .
Surely the first target has to be the 140p float price ?

[papalpower] 05/6/2007 14:41

henry, news will of course be very slow, its the nature of the business. The next news should be results, which should spark a new broker price target. So, all quiet to then. You either build a long term holding and ignore short term moves, or try to wait to buy just before the news.

[henryatkin] 05/6/2007 14:39

I know that volumes have been very small, but I find it strange that some p/i's would be selling at a price less than that which the directors purchased just a few days before. I guess they are looking at something other than long term value. I wonder if by the nature of the fixed long term contracts news might be a bit slow. But given the earnings visibility this may be a good stock to increase holdings in the build up to future results.

[johne1] 02/6/2007 11:59

Thanks Tadtech.

I assume a large amount of orders for the fleet are secured, at an established price and that the BDI index is only indirectly related to the revenues returned.

[tadtech] 02/6/2007 11:24

Kevin Depew
May 02, 2007 11:36 am

2. Baltic Dry Index Surges on Customers' Yacht Orders

Ok, the Baltic Dry Index doesn't really have anything to do with yacht orders... much. But there's no doubt it's smoking. What gives?

First, what is the Baltic Dry Index?
The Baltic Dry Index is a number issued daily by the Baltic Exchange, a London-based organization whose members arrange for ocean transport of industrial bulk commodities from producers to end users.
Every day they survey brokers around the world to find out how much it costs to book cargoes of raw materials on a variety of shipping routes.
The answers are then reformulated as the Baltic Dry Index.
Now, why is the Baltic Dry Index considered important?
Well, first off, it's not a speculative index. In other words, no one is out there bidding up the Baltic Dry Index because they believe shipping costs will change in the future.
Instead, it tracks the actual cost of shipping raw materials by sea based on real cargo bookings and is therefore considered a pretty good indicator of global trade volumes.
For those without access to Bloomberg, the Web site Investment Tools.com has updated Baltic Dry Index data available.
Second, as Minyanville Professor Sally Limantour has explained on the Buzz & Banter, the Baltic Dry Index reflects global demand for "stuff."
Interestingly, an article in today's Financial Times notes that demand for stuff may not be the sole explanation for the surge in the Baltic Dry Index.
According to the FT, slow growth in the supply of bulk carriers to the market and underinvestment in port facilities is also fueling the rise in the shipping index.
"The lack of investment, not only in new bulk freighters, but also in the facilities to load and unload them has led to the recent highs in shipping rates," Steve Rodley, joint managing director of M2M told the newspaper.
Now, here's something to consider going forward:
- The ISM yesterday noted higher prices paid for materials.
- In addition to higher prices for raw materials, shipping rates are going up as apparently shippers are having little difficulty passing through their increased costs to buyers of raw materials.
- Yet further down the line in the production process, sellers are having great difficulty passing through their increased costs to Mr. and Mrs. Jones.
Stay tuned, these ingredients are only now getting mixed together.
We'll see what comes out of the oven later this year.

[abubryn] 02/6/2007 10:10

Yes keep it up, i will be happy to buy more, at the price that you will hopefully talk it down to .

[johne1] 01/6/2007 22:53

Good posts Tadtech and pbracken.

Contrasting opinions but, good nonetheless.

[pbracken] 01/6/2007 17:45

When GOC came to the market, the BDI was around 4500, not 1500. It subsequently fell to around 1700, which coincided with the nadir of GOC's fortunes.

The recovery of the BDI to its current level directly explains the resurgence in GOC's share price. That means that anyone buying GOC today is effectively betting that the BDI will stabilise or move upwards from here (notwithstanding the fact that GOC has 'locked in' revenues for the next 18-24 months based on exisitng charters).

I'm not saying GOC is not decent value; I'm just saying be wary of the impact of any correction in the BDI. That correction seems to have started.

[tadtech] 01/6/2007 17:29

pbracken

Agreed the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is falling somewhat currently. However GOC was floated around May 2005 at a price of £1.40p when then BDI index was 1500 (approx) it is now over 5000 !!

Also re Trafalger 'jumping ship' as you put it. I personally prefer investors putting their money where there mouths are. The new investors paid £1.18p for most of the recent large holding. They are now running the company as opposed to having an outside investor interfering.

There have been many positives recently and I feel the small fall back was not due to the BDI but the large transfer that temporarily spooked the market. Also a number of short term investors entered this stock (due to a tip sheet) for a quick turn, they have possibly exited over the last week as things have not quite worked out as they expected due to the transfer trade.

Whilst this sector is volatile the fact that a similar company is joining the market next week at a rating of nearly double satisfies me that this is currently undervalued significantly.

Time will tell in due course.

[pbracken] 01/6/2007 16:12

...except to say that the BDI looks set fair for a healthy correction. 122p was below my predicted high, but I can see why Trafalgar jumped ship, as it were. A pull back to 85p is not out of the question, especially if the BDI falls as precipitously as it rose.

[tadtech] 01/6/2007 16:08

henry

The key here is the thin market in the shares. Only 20% (8 million shares) free float. Any steady buying will moved this fast. I feel confident this will be a great deal higher in due course.

My short term target is a return to the IPO price of £1.40, it should not be trading below that IMO after the positive vibes from the board. Further news could come at anytime after the Board changes.

I see £2 easily achievable 3/6 months if results match the Boards words, remember they own 80% and paid £1.18p for most of that.

[henryatkin] 01/6/2007 15:58

Tad, I agree. Both companies have a fleet of five albeit Globus will soon have a sixth, but that knowhere near accounts for market cap difference. I will sit this out until value is achieved or bad news is reported, which ever comes first. Looking at shipping generally and dry bulk in paticular I reckon this is worth at very least 250p. With all our fleet contracted out news may be in short supply unless management are eyeing up aquisitions. They seem a pretty sharp outfit so it wouldn't suprise me.

[tadtech] 01/6/2007 07:33

Greek registered Globus Maritime floating on 5th June with a market cap of nearly DOUBLE this company!! Shows that this is more than undervalued. Its model is similar, read the below link.

[tadtech] 30/5/2007 12:54

Doubled my holding today. Feel confident this will breakout shortly. Possible press comment could be expected shortly too re the change of ownership.

[papalpower] 30/5/2007 11:52

L2 all blue.

4 v 5 @113/120

Buys been going through at 118p, if we see that rise to 120p for buys we could be on for a few more ticks up.

[saucepan] 30/5/2007 10:29

Looking very good medium/long term, IMHO, now last week's muddied waters have cleared.

[tadtech] 30/5/2007 09:35

konkel

I agree totally the shareholding has changed fundamentally for the positive. No longer outside investors but investors now directly involved with the company putting firm cash down on the table implies they intend to grow this for their benefit. This increases the markets confidence.

I expect the market to continue to re-rate now this somewhat previous 'alarming' trade has been fully explained.

This shold be trading well above the £1.40 issue price IMO.

[konkel] 30/5/2007 09:26

ABUBRYN....no nothing's changed at all......oh apart from the small issue of the now 2 major shareholders, who represent 80% of the issued share capital, being associated with the management. So now the board's interests are perfectly alligned with other shareholders which is rather better than having 2 outside shareholders stirring things up. It's now only a matter of time before the minority shareholding is bid for....the bad news being that this will be done just as things are getting interesting. Anyway, should they wish to bid £2, I'll be happy to rip their arms off!

[abubryn] 30/5/2007 09:15

Looking at it logically there were 3 major holdings and now there are 2 .
together they control 80% of the company and really nothing much has changed.
I am already saving for my next rights chance ,when they buy more ships ..

[tadtech] 30/5/2007 09:14

Well if nothing else the announcement allays any fears or shocks. I can see no reason why the uptrend cannot continue now. Any buying in this extremely thin market could move this big time.

Now over 80% of shares tightly held and decent growth expected together with a likely dividend to boot.