Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[alphorn] 28/5/2020 13:05

Here is the clickable link:



Interesting approach for a product - not a vaccine itself though.

[quepassa] 28/5/2020 13:01

GSK to produce a billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine booster by 2021.

See full 28/5 article here


hXXps://pharmaphorum.com/news/gsk-to-produce-a-billion-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-booster-by-2021/

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[robbiekeane] 27/5/2020 18:19

A very interesting report. The only bright spot for GSK is that it has fallen so far behind it might be ripe for a takeover...Also some very interesting comments at the end of the article.

[abdullla] 27/5/2020 17:06

Monty has posted an FT link below .

[essentialinvestor] 27/5/2020 16:27

For anyone interested, FT running a detailed report today on how AZN overtook GSK.

[spud] 27/5/2020 15:52

Made my stash with growth companies Monty (as you know). Now I'm into low maintenance income stocks. It can stay at this price until I die providing there's a steady quarterly dividend payout. spud

[abdullla] 27/5/2020 12:19

Looks like pharmas have lost their footings,shares are rapidly losing their values fast.

[montyhedge] 27/5/2020 11:45

Like I said GSK shareprice below what it was 20 years ago. Will be like it for the next 20 years. Only saviour is a 4.5% yield.

[abdullla] 27/5/2020 10:49

I think some one in AZN is cooking the books.

[spud] 27/5/2020 10:07

At least the overvaluation criticism can't be levelled at GSK....spud

[montyhedge] 27/5/2020 10:06

Astra left GSK behind.https://www.ft.com/content/20bd997e-d26a-4cf6-8f2e-3cf35784669e

[buywell3] 26/5/2020 23:21

buywell has been looking at what might be coming down the road over the next 6 to 9 months. IMO it gives rise to some concern re lockdowns being relaxed .

Covid-19 case numbers are still running at circa 100K a day worldwide after hitting the worst ever number of 106k since the outbreak started less than a week ago.

Clearly Covid-19 Wave 1 is not yet over

USA daily case numbers are running at circa 20K a day , it is not yet over there also.

Latin America and India are now in crisis , Russia is around 9K cases a day and 6M cases by the end of this week looks a given. A Covid-19 kill rate of 6.66% will then equate to 400k deaths.

buywell is now of the opinion that this Wave 1 will most likely hit 10M cases by mid July .

Hopefully hot weather will then ease numbers downwards till the fall when it gets colder.

buywell expects numbers to begin to rise once more by the end of September in the absence of no vaccine peaking around Xmas/mid Jan 2021.

Now here comes the nasty bit

Just how high case numbers rise in Wave 2 will depend upon when or indeed lockdown Mk2 gets implemented by politicians. Some will some won't but buywell feels that the economic damage will be so great by say end of October/start November crunch time will have arrived.

Assuming that most by then in the absence of a vaccine will opt for the 'herd immunity' goal , which was attained in 3 waves in the last pandemic 1918/1919 in around 15 months , the politicos will roll the dice and Wave 2 will be a bad one as it was with Spanish Flu , 6 X the size of Wave 1.

Will Hospitals and Health Services cope ?

They just did in the UK , USA and EU . But whether they do next time depends upon Health Ministers and Governments preparing them over the next few months both with extra staff, extra ICU beds , extra ventilators and equipment that Wave 1 has indicated works best , and adequate PPE in quality and quantity.

The potential size of Wave 2 could be 60M people and 4 Million deaths

In the absence of a vaccine another Wave 3 could follow as per the Spanish Flu model , that thankfully should be the last as 'herd immunity' gets attained.

As long as SARS-COV-2 has not mutated into something worse in terms of its kill rate.

A vaccine has never been successfully made to date for any Coronavirus , the odds are therefore not good that one will be made this time. Plus the fact that there have been 3 distinct mutated strains in evidence in China , the EU and the USA , plus another 27 mutated strains to date also brings into prospect that current vaccines now in production ( yes they are assuming testing on humans is ok) works on the mutated strains killing humans in March 2021.

This is also why buywell believes the dice will be rolled for no more lockdowns by most countries ie the no vaccine scenario.

It is a UK fact that 'herd immunity' is the goal
Boris Johnson's Talk of 'Herd Immunity' Raises Alarms
www.courthousenews.com › boris-johnsons-talk-of-her...
Boris Johnson's Talk of 'Herd Immunity' Raises Alarms.

A last thought re those countries that do NOT want to do more Lockdowns.

These might include places like Australia, New Zealand , Taiwan and other island nations like those in the Pacific.

Whilst 'Herd Immunity' would have been attained by the greater part of the world at the cost of circa 100M cases in 3 Waves together with circa 6.66 Million deaths.

NO Herd Immunity will exist in those countries that locked down hard again.

Hence they will be sitting ducks when airplanes carrying the odd asymptomatic case of Covid-19 ( Covid carrier shows no symptoms) in the event of no vaccine roll out .



Plan and Prepare for the worst outcome/s is what Politicos should now be doing IMO


boris - Laura Doomsburg is out to get you

You need to get out a statement laying out your plans to rebuild the NHS to be fit for purpose in a world of Coronavirus Pandemics , SARS-COV-3 is coming.

All IMHO , dyor

[robbiekeane] 26/5/2020 14:58

grahamburn - apologies if I misinterpreted, thanks for clarifying.

[grahamburn] 26/5/2020 14:53

robbiekeane 21367

Think you misheard AZN CEO on Marr programme. What he actually said was that due to the spread of the virus (the R0 rate) dropping so quickly the current human trials of the Oxford vaccine candidate might not provide sufficient evidence to prove its validity and safety. In effect, the trials require the virus to be reasonably virulent otherwise not enough of the participants are exposed to it.

A vaccine will, however, still be required as the virus will not have "died a natural death", so to speak.

[ric0chet] 26/5/2020 13:54

Totally agree with you Montyhedge. GSK has continued to be the pharma laggard. AZN and HIK, for example, hitting all-time highs recently, whilst GSK expecting to be range-bound again...!

[gateside] 26/5/2020 13:43

Currently yield 4.9%

[dr biotech] 26/5/2020 13:38

Investomania is a lot like the motley fool. Fairly anodyne formulaic posts with little in depth analysis. His opinion is as valid as anyone’s though.

[montyhedge] 26/5/2020 12:51

Gsk ord shares like buy a bond, but with more risk, 4.5% yield, but no growth in 20 years, shareprice below what it was 20 years ago. So much for tuck away for long term.

[robbiekeane] 26/5/2020 12:31

hxxps://investomania.co.uk/2020/05/do-ftse-100-stocks-gsk-imperial-brands-and-bats-have-defensive-appeal/

Quite a bullish piece by Robert Stephens in Investomania (he also writes for the Telegraph's Questor column).

[montyhedge] 26/5/2020 11:52

Looks like a waste of time, GSK spending time and money looking for a Corona vaccine, Astra got the money from US.

[robbiekeane] 24/5/2020 17:53

Interesting today was the Andrew Marr interview with AstraZeneca's CEO, Pascal Soriot. This concerned the Covid-19 vaccine his company is rushing into production with little apparent evidence currently available that it will be efficacious.

Marr asked what the hurry was and the CEO was candid. Unless, he said, this got to market quickly there was a very real chance that the vaccine will arrive too late to be required. There would not, he said, be enough of the virus left in the community to prove whether the vaccine had ever been required.

Maybe it's just as well we haven't gone all in developing a vaccine....time will tell.

[spud] 22/5/2020 18:42

Monty, you old scoundrel. Lord Haw Haw reborn!spud

[rikky72] 22/5/2020 18:40

Part of it is that AZ have a much higher proportion of R&D staff whereas GSK have cut more than half in the past 10 years. They also seem to embrace risk more. Lastly I think the Pfizer takeover gave them the impetus they needed. Try as they might, GSK have never improved at anywhere the same scale which is why I'm concerned about them becoming a stand alone pharma without the crutch of consumer and vaccines..