Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 01/10/2021 21:30

The case for nuclear. And why wind and solar are not worth bothering with

[dogberry202000] 28/9/2021 10:56

I agree. Energy stocks including uranium should do very well over the next few years.

[7kiwi] 28/9/2021 10:19

New YCA investor pres out:



In August, SPUT in its own bought more than the entire spot market volume in July.

[7kiwi] 28/9/2021 10:03

bmcb,

I hope your sons do well. My (slightly older) kids have followed my advice and are also in GCL and YCA in their ISAs too.

[bmcb5] 28/9/2021 09:39

I’ve taken the opportunity on this weakness, to set up ISAs for my twin sons who turn 21 next month. 50% GCL & 50% YCA. Should set them up nicely

[dogberry202000] 28/9/2021 08:52

What's coming is a full blown energy crisis the likes of which hasn't be experienced since the early 1970s.China has been rationing electricity for several weeks and it's getting worse as the country deals with the results of its global warming policies. India is short of coal and the air in its cities is polluted. In Europe gas and oil prices are rising and it's only September. The stage is set for re-entry of nuclear power and uranium.

[dogberry202000] 23/9/2021 16:00

The cycle low and seasonality coming for the uranium sector from early October.

[7kiwi] 23/9/2021 14:19

New Cannacord report into the Uranium sector. Forecasts price spike to $80/lb in 4Q21 and long term $65/lb. Lots of miner upgrades too.

[dogberry202000] 22/9/2021 15:44

The new fact sheet for August is out listing the Fund's main holdings. Hat tip to the managers for holding such a large numbers of shares in some of the best uranium companies.

Happy to hold on for the ride.

[goodgrief] 21/9/2021 20:04

Uranium demand will double in 10 yearshTTps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tjgO26nQmnE

[7kiwi] 19/9/2021 18:03

Jonwig,

I am not saying that they're in danger of going bust. But the structure of their order book and production profile means that cashflow and profits will decline over the next couple of years if the Uranium price continues to rise.

If they get smart with future contracts and get McArthur River online without hitch, then they should be in a position to prosper from 2024 onwards.

[jonwig] 19/9/2021 08:34

P21 has:

Debt covenants
We are bound by certain covenants in our unsecured revolving credit facility. The financially related covenants place restrictions on total debt, including guarantees. As at June 30, 2021, we met these financial covenants and do not expect our
operating and investment activities for the remainder of 2021 to be constrained by them.

P20:

We use debt to provide additional liquidity. We have sufficient borrowing capacity with unsecured lines of credit totalling about $2.7 billion at June 30, 2021, unchanged from March 31, 2021. At June 30, 2021, we had approximately $1.5 billion
outstanding in financial assurances, unchanged from March 31, 2021. At June 30, 2021, we had no short-term debt outstanding on our $1.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, unchanged from December 31, 2020. This facility matures November 1, 2023.

I'd say the company is in a good financial state, and they must have weighed their strategy against continuing lossmaking operations.

I'm always happy to question orthodoxy, and I've some nascent concerns about the outcome of the Sprott strategy, but don't feel I'm on strong enough ground to voice them. Does the name Bunker Hunt ring any bells?

[7kiwi] 19/9/2021 00:21

Jon,

They need about $200m to reopen Mcarthur River. The "quite small" impact is predicated on small movements in the U3O8 price.

It's already moved big. $52m against them. Any further moves will be very difficult next year. And what covenants are on the debt?

[jonwig] 18/9/2021 19:02

Page 21 of your pdf shows cash, debt and inventories. On the face of it, C exceeds D quite comfortably, and I will be increasing in value. They do say that the sensitivities are quite small.

As I said, I haven't given much thought to the financial health of these companies, except for Kazatomprom, which is paying a considerable dividend.

[7kiwi] 18/9/2021 18:28

Jonwig,

They have been signing similar contracts this year. Spot Uranium up nearly $20 since their last report. Now becoming material and if this continues, they're in big trouble next year.

[goodgrief] 18/9/2021 16:20

Like I was saying on the YCA thread...

[jonwig] 18/9/2021 15:37

Kiwi - immediately after your table, they say this:

For the remainder of 2021, the volume of purchase commitments sensitive to the spot price is higher than the volume of committed deliveries that are sensitive to the spot price. As a result, our adjusted net earnings and cash flow are expected to move in the opposite direction from the uranium spot price. However, the impact on adjusted net earnings is expected to be very small with cash flow expected to be more sensitive to price changes.

I think (maybe naively) that when they suspended production, they had commitments to deliver uranium to customers. At the same time, they had to buy from the market to satisfy deliveries. Don't quiz me further on that - please! - as it's getting above my pay grade.

[7kiwi] 18/9/2021 15:00

I've been taking a look at Cameco. This from their latest MD&A.



For every $5 increase in the Uranium price, earnings fall $4m and cashflow $13m. How on earth did the world's second largest producer get itself in the position where its earnings move inversely to the price of its core product?

[steve73] 17/9/2021 03:33

kiwi - yes. It is to do with the new Subs being available...

When the NAV is higher than the exercise price, then it assumes they will all be exercised, but since that will be valued as cash only, the NAV increases at a lower amount than do the number of shares, so the NAV/# is reduced.

The FD one is the appropriate one to use.

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 21:20

Equities look to have taken a breather today. Meanwhile, according to BPI, U3O8 closed at $51 today (+2).

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 20:21

Hmmm,

Can anyone explain that new fully diluted NAV?

I wasn't aware of any options or warrants and can't find mention in the annual report and accounts.

Or is it something to do with the forthcoming ability for existing holders to buy new shares at a discount in the Spring?

[opaldouglas] 16/9/2021 08:16

Kiwi - Whoops! My mistake, I hold both.

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 00:19

brugen,

The management fees are going up much faster from the appreciation of the share price than new share issuance.

The shares have been issued at a premium to NAV each time, so that's accretive for existing shareholders. So it's a win-win.

[7kiwi] 16/9/2021 00:17

GG,

Indeed, I didn't get too many before the deadline for that offer. But it will make a nice bonus.