 Peel Hunt comments:Upgrades on impressive 1H Core sales grew 11% in actual currency to at least £260m. This is despite the tough comp from the 40k launch and currency headwinds. Royalties should be no less than £30m in 1H vs £13m in 1H24 and £31m in FY24. The company expects 1H PBT to be not less than £120m, a 25% increase vs the prior period. We are upgrading FY25E PBT 6% to £210m. This leaves plenty of room for upside if the Christmas trading period goes well. On a roll Games Workshop has delivered an exceptional 1H performance despite tough comps. We increase our TP from £120 to £135 and retain our Buy rating. Strong sales growth. The company expects core sales to grow c.11%, and we estimate a 1-2% currency headwind. This is highly impressive in our view, given the strong comp from the 40k launch last summer. The hobby remains in excellent health, and the success of Space Marine 2 has increased its profile and helped short-term revenues. Impressive royalties. There was a material boost from Space Marine 2, which was released in September and reported to have over 4.5m unique players in just over a month post launch. Upgrading forecasts. We are upgrading our FY25E PBT 6% to £210m. The company next plans to update in January, when we should have greater clarity on the potential for the full year. |
90th position qualifies for automatic entry I think. Who knows if it'll stay that way, but if it does it'll be interesting to see how the valuation settles once its in. |
Fun Fact - as of now, GW has the 88th/89th ish biggest market cap in the FTSE. |
Fantastic result. I do wish they could be more forrhcomimg with news.
And a share split should be done. Say 20 for 1. |
Increasingly close to ftse100 |
Great news!
Warhammer maker Games Workshop lifted half-year guidance after trading in the last two months exceeded expectations. The company on Friday forecast pre-tax profit of at least £120m for the six months to 31 December, compared with £96.1m a year earlier. Core revenue was estimated at not less than £260m and licensing revenue of at least £30m. |
That's a massive rise! Profits up 25% on prev year (budget small increase). Licensing income (almost no costs, just income) over double previous year. This is wonderful news :-) |
Great trading update - ahead of expectations.
Nice.
Suet |
Interesting read.... |
The telegraph article I read separately goes on to say Ukrainian soldiers were doing the same, who would refuse such a simple comfort to a human being in such times. He added that it reflected the huge popularity of the game in Russia and Ukraine and purity seals have been worn by soldiers on both sides as far back as February last year. |
Something tells me that they may not be very effective in the real world at protecting canon fodder! |
I hope we will be taking steps in Court to protect our intellectual property |
Didn't expect to see Warhammer being extensively profiled as part of the Ukraine war! |
Obviously the institutions have different pricing to the retail investors but there was a spike of buying ahead of the ex-div date and some selling when it went ex-div, the price dropping by more than the dividend, now it is creeping up again.
I think timing the market is another mugs game, one which seems perfectly easy using a rear view mirror but is just impossible looking at today's market. Look at any given share today and ask what is it going to do tomorrow, in a month, in a year; go up, go down, stay the same? We retail investors can never know. Buy and hold is the only game for small fry ("time in the market").
That said, there are always anomalies, sometimes a share goes up or down for no apparent reason or for reasons which don't make sense, if you are confident in your scepticism then it may be a good selling or buying opportunity but it is still a gamble.
I always look at the fallers and risers pages and check any large movements, sometimes they are over-reactions. A couple of years ago, UPGS (now ULTP) had a sharp fall based on a 'revenues might be a bit flat' RNS. That seemed overdone to me so I got some. They went down for a couple of days but I was in profit in a few weeks, my holding has now nearly tripled in value and I have also had about 1/3 of my purchase price in dividends. I continue to hold because I think their business model is sound.
Back on topic, I'm surprised that there hasn't been a bid for GAW from a major US media company. Were there any such rumours I'd probably sell into any rise because I couldn't see a bidding war happening and if the bid came to nothing there would be a share price drop. |
mid 80 pound and 50 pound .. it doesn't like the sterling symbol |
I post not to convince or drive a short term profit or short, it's because I love the product .. I have a small basic car worth of shares and have held them since mid £80 not that long sgo, why i sold mine at £50 ish a long time ago was pure greed and some fear it was to good to be true , how wrong i was... for me the fundamentals are the belief in growth of a product not the charts or the algorithms of the market movers .. some products stand out . I am just sharing my thoughts on one of them . |
I was looking at their store the other day , they were charging 25 pound sterling for some plastic components for the raven guard space Marine.. unpainted .. if it costs more than 50p to produce I would be amazed . The hobby is many fold , from young pc gamers and the rest, then table toppers who all play streaming online now mostly anyway so no geographical restriction.. to the painters who don't even play .. just a painting hobby . And then for the readers and lore fantasists the literature .. the horus legacy .. with another 370 odd titles .. with the wealth of lore attached .. it is like LOTR meets Star Wars ... how big was LOTR before the films.. all they need is a receptive media producer .. they will surely find one if Amazon get to pawsy .. If you think Games Workshop is just a game , it isn't. |
fenners66 - "what about when to invest?" should be purely based on current valuations of a company. A company is worth its future free cash flows discounted by cost of capital. I used to do DCF analysis. However,I figured out recently that its just a waste of time. Extrapolating current trends linearly in a cyclical economy is a fools paradise imo. So I would look at some key valuation metrics especially like FCF yield and P/E ratio and compare them against the 5y average of the company and the industry. After all, a great business does not mean a great investment. Warren Buffet's biggest regret was not selling Coca-Coca in 1999 when trading at PE 50. In the subsequent 25y, the share price only rose 50% (c.$40 to c.$60). There is a silver lining to that too. It was a mature business trading at 50x which is extremely high. A small-mid cap stock at 50x is not the same as large cap stock at 50x where growth opportunities are way limited. What I meant by technical analysis was just looking at charts and seeing 'patterns'...oh this is a flag, oh this is a pennant,,oh head and shoulders etc. Everyone can see these patterns which means that if everyone was doing the same thing, there would be no liquidity in the market. And that is clearly not the case. Algorithms are based mostly on macro news so for instance weak Chinese data meant less demand for luxury and as a result whole luxury sector took a beating last couple of weeks. This is the opportunity for long-term investors to jump. I wanted to start my own fund but couldn't gather the required AUM. Investing is my passion and so if anyone wants to share/exchange ideas, you can email me at akhilsoni86@gmail.com. I have a concentrated portfolio of few stocks. Have a good day. |
I take your point Fenners but I personally do very little (near zero) assessment of “when to invest” ie I invest when funds allow in companies that I believe have a great long term future. I began investing in GW in 2019 and have gradually accumulated over time. If Warren Buffett doesn’t believe in timing the market then I am not going to try. |
Whilst I wholeheartedly agree that you should invest in a company based on fundamentals - what about when to invest?
That is where at least for large cap shares that attract institutions there must be some milage in the technicals.
You see shares go up and down all the time. The fundamentals are unchanged - or by the time we see the results twice a year they are, but in the interim the share prices are volatile.
Much of that volatility must be driven by algorithms. So if the "technicals" are mimicing the algorithms used to drive institutional trading that will be where they add value. After all the algo's are using the same data.
Surely everyone does their own "technical" analysis to some extent ? Like should I buy today but the chart looks like its going down ? Maybe wait and buy tomorrow cheaper ? |
I have always been skeptical about threads as most people I feel are short-term investors/traders (though they like calling themselves quite the opposite). But reading through some of the posts here, I feel some do care about fundamentals too. Anyways, for those who are not on FB community group 'The Imperium of Man', I highly recommend to join to see what are fans upto. I strong believe there are fans and then there are Warhammer fans. Fanatic to another level. Some fan recently posted a pic with a girl crying and written above "Super Horny" and then a guy next to her (presumably her bf/partner) smiling and written above was "Explaining Warhammer 40k" - no pun intended and the fan who posted this pic wrote the comment "Who can relate to this" and the comments section was overwhelming responded by so many fans (more than 300 comments. Like I said above, there are fans and then there are Warhammer fans. Anyways, as long as the CEO who IMO is one of the best CEO's (massive fan of his annual reports)currently in the world keeps prioritizing his employees and his long-term vision, we are in very good hands. He reminds me very much of Jeff Besos's quote in his early days at Amazon saying "you take care of your employees and your employees will take care of the customers" and the rest is history as they say. I was shocked at the massive revolt at the shareholder meeting about compensation but again these so called "institutional investors" wanted more to themselves without realising that without the contribution of the employees, GAW would never be in its best shape its ever been. Incentives are so important. So overall, it is a solid company. I'll quote Pat Dorsey, "Big fish in small pond make big money". It very much has a monopoly in its niche so BUY and HOLD. Wishing all long-term investors good fortune :) |
All I know is it's a cash rich company with a great product loyal consumers and IP rights that's growing in supply side with 2 factories and with no other evidence a desire to collaborate with a major media market be it Amazon or anyone other that may follow. It's going to be worth more than it is now, its growing, and then we can throw in potential for ftse 100 as the cherry on top in a few years if not sooner. The graphs will follow the reality, imo. |
I have to say I love the exchanges on here. I occasionally access a thread on a US Sportsbook firm and it is completely toxic plus nearly everyone focused on “head and shoulders” etc and hardly anyone actually interested in the fundamentals. |
Sorry, I meant £120. Yeah, I agree with you. I don't agree with technical analysis as I mentioned earlier. It will work 1 out of 10 times and people focus on that one time it worked. I was more curious about high volume traded today and closed at ATH. If Warren Buffett can't predict the share price movements, who are we?! Interesting to see price action in the next few days. Having said that, it's a marathon, not a sprint :) |
120p would be eye watering! £120 perhaps? What support level? It is going up and now happens to be £120ish, at some point it will level off or fall back. Buyers and sellers!
The tea leaf readers just have stock phrases they use to try and sound as though they know what they are talking about, they don't. It is just people looking at the past and saying "oh look, that was a head and shoulders". If they had any value they'd look at today's chart and know what was likely to happen in the very near future with a reasonable degree of confidence, they can't. If they could the big boys would be all over it and the advantage would disappear within hours or days. |
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