Whilst currently we have no way of knowing if, when and to whom US tariffs will apply GAW wouldn't be immune to any blanket tariff. The pricing and nature of the product and with no US alternative do probably mean they may cope better than most. |
Any thoughts on potential impact of Trump tariffs on Games Workshop ?
My feeling is that they could be vulnerable inasmuch as 40% sales are to the USA,they export a physical product rather than a service and there is no possibility of them being able to circumvent tariffs by switching production to USA. |
Brokers have around £5m pencilled in for H2 (after £30m in H1), now with the success of SM2 in H1, H1 is unlikely to replicated outside of Amazon royalties but last year GAW did £9m FY in mobile & other (toys, clothing etc).
The success of SM2 is likely to lift all games titles a little, the tail of SM2 sales could also catch H2 and there's the possibility of new contracts being signed generating MIG's.
I'm happy to wager H2 royalties revenues will be closer to £15m than £5m. |
Forgot to mention Darktide was released on PS5 3rd December. Should do well after the raised exposure for all things 40k after SM2.
Brokers f/c's for H2 royalty revenue are laughable. |
That is an excellent article by CITYam. |
hTTps://www.cityam.com/how-games-workshop-worked-its-magic-to-join-the-giants-of-the-ftse-100/ |
Officially confirmed, GAW joins FTSE100
hxxps://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2024/ftse-uk-index-series-review-december-2024 |
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14154309/MARKET-REPORT-Warhammer-leads-Games-Workshop-FTSE-100.html |
This is well worth a read if you can get past the paywall. I always find his company write-ups are well worth 10 mins of one's time..
hxxps://findingmoatsinternational.substack.com/p/games-workshop-gaw |
I don’t have insights on GW/Amazon other than to say it would baffle me a little if a deal could get done (ie completed early next year) but were unable to get it done by now. They have been partnering on this for a year although I could be way off mark. |
The 12 months to agree creative guidelines expires on 18th December so I expect 1 of the 3 following outcomes.
a) a deal to be agreed and announced
b) an extension to the negotiation announced
c) the cancellation of the deal
IMO a) or b) are by far the most likely. |
Have GAW formally committed to a December update on Amazon, even if it's just "not quite finished, we'll have more to say in January"? |
One of the founders interviewed on Today by Sean Farrington.
Looking good. No...looking very good |
Space Marine 2 has now sailed through 5 million copies sold.
Amazon Secret Level trailer drops on 10th December.
News on the Amazon/Cavill deal arrives by 18th December.
Some really exciting 40k releases scheduled for H2. |
6671 from you and 6699 from fenners66 |
6705, what conspiracy theory would that be?
Good and relevant point about 250 trackers selling, while 350 trackers just sit on their hands. All depends on fund size of course. Using your numbers, if held in proportion, then 250 tracker sellers would hold about 4/310 (say 1.3%) of their holdings, while 100 buyers would acquire 4/2000 (say 0.2%) of theirs. |
The mcap of the FTSE 100 is 2,000bn, the mcap of the FTSE 250 is 310bn so there would have to be 6.5 times more investment in FSTE 100 trackers than FTSE 250 trackers to be neutral. |
I am curious following the debate on here…there is 100% definitely more money invested in FTSE100 than FTSE250 trackers and it isn’t close. I have just checked the market caps and GW will definitely be announced as “promoted̶1; tomorrow after close of business (as before - it moves across to the new index on Dec 23rd). |
To illustrate take the Vanguard Tracker ETF's
FTSE 100 is £1.3bn, FTSE250 (which GAW will be leaving) is £2.8bn and GAW was a larger proportion of the 250 than it will be of the 100 so Vanguard will be net sellers. |
The hole in your conspiracy theory is that there is very little cash in FTSE 100 trackers so the promotion will have little effect on the share price Any tracker buying will be after inclusion in the Index. |
Thing is, if the expectation is FTSE promotion then buying pressure makes 'materially ahead', immaterial.
If tracker funds and the like expect to have to own the shares from tomorrow, have they already done their buying? I.e. if promotion is confirmed will we see further large buys or have these likely to have been done? (I'm read somewhere that the promotion is decided today.) |
Generally 10% variance up or down |
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