Frontera Share Discussion Threads

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 20:47

regdik1,164 postsHow long - part twoNow Georgia are welcome guests in Washington and there is and acceptance that they may have more than dirt beneath their feet. Delegations met in both Georgia and Washington both political and big business. FRR have friends in high places and great contacts in O&G industry and the time was right to share their latest testing results and invite majors to come, see, feel and participate in upgrading the CPR. I understand that this has been going on for over a year. The majors have technical folks in Georgia and they have suggested additional tests and methods. FRR had to invest in similar expertise to ensure that they to fully understood what was required and how best use the data to formulate a plan to conduct a sensible commercial discussion (O&G are hard negotiators). This probably prompted the GG to look at arbitration as it is/was going very slowly and the $$$ that they would see in investment and eventual share of the product slipping. So why no deal to date I assume is around how do you value the asset in the ground the cost of extraction as the amount they seem to have increased as more data is produced. The more we have the more the majors will want in and the more they will seek a JV/FO arrangement. So ZaZa has two aces in his hand and is playing poker with all comers. YA and Outrider have been caught cheating and may be thrown out of the game. Lets hope its a winning hand and not a busted flush, So how long – as long as it takes.

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 20:47

regdik1,164 postsHow long - part oneThe next instalment in my how series Lots of speculation of when will a deal will be struck. First you got to understand that majors have been looking at Georgia for a long time due to the similar topography to Azerbaijan. Russia tried and had initial success extracting oil but the pressure, mud issue and lack of good transportation (access to market) slowly drained interest as the wells silted up and the flows became a dribble. Gas actually was an issue as it caused complications no local market and hindered oil extraction. If the Russians had todays drilling and separation technologies then Georgia will still be a Russian state (or run by the Oligarchs).Independence and a gradual move o the West and NATO has given the majors greater confidence to look to invest in the country. Some will say that BP are in Georgia and have invested billions in the country but that has mainly been on a pipeline that traverses across the country to take other Nations product to Market. Then about 3 years ago a man with a yellow tie stood up at a meeting with a CPR and said we have found what would be the fifth biggest gas field in the world oh and a few billion barrels of oil too. AC said well done and the minister from Azerbaijan looked shocked. Georgia Energy minister rubbished the claim whilst signing a hydro energy project that he had a personal interest. The POO fell to all time low and the majors cancelled many new development projects. FRR had to turn to fund by BoD loans and then the dreaded YA. At the time we thought SN had shares in YA. Dilution followed and followed as FRR fought to keep the lights on and creditors from taking the asset for next to nothing (sounds current). The majors did get copies of the CPR back then but the pesky Russians decided to annex a big chunk of Ukraine and political volatility came to the fore (majors are risk averse around politically stability issues)

[jayrh] 17/10/2018 20:40

News of 1000bopd will silence the many. Gla

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 19:49

The majors are in the progress of a revised cpr now with the extended testing and changing different things hence no flow rates thats what zaza has said

[loglorry1] 17/10/2018 19:28

Mick why would a major provide a "big injection of cash"? They know FRR is on its knees. I'd say a very small carry on a well would be enough to get a sizable chunk of the license IF they were interested.

I can't imagine that can happen when a court is yet to decide who owns the license FRR or Outrider and even then the result of arbitration to decide if FRR can still retain it.

I forget the history but hasn't FRR been kicked out of another country in the past?

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 19:23

I know what it mean kid itll get put into p1 category when further development wells are done

[loglorry1] 17/10/2018 18:57

@Mick just so you are clear the numbers you quote are prospective resource numbers from a paid for CPR. Go look up what that means.

[tune player] 17/10/2018 18:27

Jaknife

Trick or treat?

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 18:22

Kevin Your right the half year results are shocking and would suggest that no extra oil has been sold Guess im still here for this lottery type win when the majors take over and sort it out properly with a big injection of cash to get Georgia energy independent and eventually export to Europe with its 18 bil of oil and 202tcf of gas

[wshak] 17/10/2018 17:52

Thefozzer,You say that my best hope as a bear is Outrider causing a fuss but that situation has only become apparent a few days ago. Why would that be my best hope when I've been a bear for so long and FRR do everything I could ever want them to do.Next up, YA or someone else will start a new death spiral.With no oil flows and no cash, bears only have to wait, as we obviously think there is little to no chance of any major farming into FRR's acreage at a level that justifies the share price, especially in light of the doubt over title.

[thefozzer] 17/10/2018 17:46

Jack,

Ud2 found commercial quality deep gas for the first time in Georgia's history. The reason the gas did not flow in commercial quantities (We are told) is that the 30yr+ oil well was shot to pieces.

Zaza said the next gas well will be commercial.

Something has got the attention of the majors in Georgia, think about it.

[thefozzer] 17/10/2018 17:41

WShak,

I don't believe there's an NDA notice preventing flow rates to be released. My interpretation of the situation is that due to the extensive testing of wells it is not pruduant to yet reveal the flow rates. If FRR and Exxon (for example) are performing extended extensive tests on the T wells then the release of premature flow rates could be misleading.

WShak, I keep stating this but it rings true. Either Zaza is an amazing liar on a level I've not seen before or he is telling the truth about the Super Majors. Don't forget the two Majors interest has now been vetted twice by the Nomad.

Your best hope now is that Outriders recent actions derail the deal with the majors. I'm not a legal expert so I don't know how strong a case Outrider could have. To me it appears to be a case of Mr Hope "trying it on".

[ngms27] 17/10/2018 17:05

What oil? Its all gas

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 16:30

Kickmuck39 postsRE: Evening allWell, things are progressing nicely here.Firstly, just lets recap on the last two and a half years of technical progress in Block 12. This is a petroleum engineering story at its best – we finally figured out how to drill clean holes in this tricky geology and we got zones to flow that have baffled drillers for decades. The Soviets fooled around for so many years washing out the sands and spitting cement; this really is a classic story of how one of the worlds great under-developed regional plays gets conquered. It's taken years for Frontera to get to this place, but then it took years to realize that the Permian in West Texas could do what it's doing now – read, understand and see the similar story.OK, on a very basic evidential level:Q: Is the oil there in the Block 12 license area? A: NSA have presented cautious oil and gas in-place estimates based on data they have audited from the Frontera drills and data they have generated themselves. We also have some Ryder Scott work. These data estimates are staggering and no one can deny this is not absolutely world class land with several great plays – based on the petroleum consultants data.Q: Can we drill holes, work the rock and sustain a major field set of commercial flows?A: Frontera have presented an exploitation & development methodology for a super-multi-well strategy which has excited certain parties to take an interest in Block 12 over recent years, from MND Group / VTB, through to the recently announced majors – these are the ones the market knows about... OK, I totally agree that retail stockholders are lacking straightforward data to reassure the exploitation and development story, but if you step back (or talk to the right people) it's now clear to see that the Block 12 geology has been capitulating like a woodchuck since 2016 and the grind of it all has been getting the deals to plug the whole thing in. It just needs a whole lot of money throwing at it now.Next, a deal was finally nailed with mucky old Yorkville to help clean up and ready the Frontera balance sheet (announced in early June) and a little tussle subsequently developed with Yorkville (thru August and into Sept). My understanding is that this is not complicated stuff and an explanation on Thursday next at the stockholders meeting needs to be listened to really carefully to make sure there's no misunderstanding by retail - I understand that a sensible outcome has already presented itself and just needs working through with the lawyers. Like someone said on here, you don't fight over an empty box.

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 16:30

Kickmuck39 postsRE: Evening allWell, things are progressing nicely here.Firstly, just lets recap on the last two and a half years of technical progress in Block 12. This is a petroleum engineering story at its best – we finally figured out how to drill clean holes in this tricky geology and we got zones to flow that have baffled drillers for decades. The Soviets fooled around for so many years washing out the sands and spitting cement; this really is a classic story of how one of the worlds great under-developed regional plays gets conquered. It's taken years for Frontera to get to this place, but then it took years to realize that the Permian in West Texas could do what it's doing now – read, understand and see the similar story.OK, on a very basic evidential level:Q: Is the oil there in the Block 12 license area? A: NSA have presented cautious oil and gas in-place estimates based on data they have audited from the Frontera drills and data they have generated themselves. We also have some Ryder Scott work. These data estimates are staggering and no one can deny this is not absolutely world class land with several great plays – based on the petroleum consultants data.Q: Can we drill holes, work the rock and sustain a major field set of commercial flows?A: Frontera have presented an exploitation & development methodology for a super-multi-well strategy which has excited certain parties to take an interest in Block 12 over recent years, from MND Group / VTB, through to the recently announced majors – these are the ones the market knows about... OK, I totally agree that retail stockholders are lacking straightforward data to reassure the exploitation and development story, but if you step back (or talk to the right people) it's now clear to see that the Block 12 geology has been capitulating like a woodchuck since 2016 and the grind of it all has been getting the deals to plug the whole thing in. It just needs a whole lot of money throwing at it now.Next, a deal was finally nailed with mucky old Yorkville to help clean up and ready the Frontera balance sheet (announced in early June) and a little tussle subsequently developed with Yorkville (thru August and into Sept). My understanding is that this is not complicated stuff and an explanation on Thursday next at the stockholders meeting needs to be listened to really carefully to make sure there's no misunderstanding by retail - I understand that a sensible outcome has already presented itself and just needs working through with the lawyers. Like someone said on here, you don't fight over an empty box.

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 16:30

Kickmuck39 postsRE: Evening allWell, things are progressing nicely here.Firstly, just lets recap on the last two and a half years of technical progress in Block 12. This is a petroleum engineering story at its best – we finally figured out how to drill clean holes in this tricky geology and we got zones to flow that have baffled drillers for decades. The Soviets fooled around for so many years washing out the sands and spitting cement; this really is a classic story of how one of the worlds great under-developed regional plays gets conquered. It's taken years for Frontera to get to this place, but then it took years to realize that the Permian in West Texas could do what it's doing now – read, understand and see the similar story.OK, on a very basic evidential level:Q: Is the oil there in the Block 12 license area? A: NSA have presented cautious oil and gas in-place estimates based on data they have audited from the Frontera drills and data they have generated themselves. We also have some Ryder Scott work. These data estimates are staggering and no one can deny this is not absolutely world class land with several great plays – based on the petroleum consultants data.Q: Can we drill holes, work the rock and sustain a major field set of commercial flows?A: Frontera have presented an exploitation & development methodology for a super-multi-well strategy which has excited certain parties to take an interest in Block 12 over recent years, from MND Group / VTB, through to the recently announced majors – these are the ones the market knows about... OK, I totally agree that retail stockholders are lacking straightforward data to reassure the exploitation and development story, but if you step back (or talk to the right people) it's now clear to see that the Block 12 geology has been capitulating like a woodchuck since 2016 and the grind of it all has been getting the deals to plug the whole thing in. It just needs a whole lot of money throwing at it now.Next, a deal was finally nailed with mucky old Yorkville to help clean up and ready the Frontera balance sheet (announced in early June) and a little tussle subsequently developed with Yorkville (thru August and into Sept). My understanding is that this is not complicated stuff and an explanation on Thursday next at the stockholders meeting needs to be listened to really carefully to make sure there's no misunderstanding by retail - I understand that a sensible outcome has already presented itself and just needs working through with the lawyers. Like someone said on here, you don't fight over an empty box.

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 16:13

Kickmuck39 postsRE: Evening allWell, things are progressing nicely here.Firstly, just lets recap on the last two and a half years of technical progress in Block 12. This is a petroleum engineering story at its best – we finally figured out how to drill clean holes in this tricky geology and we got zones to flow that have baffled drillers for decades. The Soviets fooled around for so many years washing out the sands and spitting cement; this really is a classic story of how one of the worlds great under-developed regional plays gets conquered. It's taken years for Frontera to get to this place, but then it took years to realize that the Permian in West Texas could do what it's doing now – read, understand and see the similar story.OK, on a very basic evidential level:Q: Is the oil there in the Block 12 license area? A: NSA have presented cautious oil and gas in-place estimates based on data they have audited from the Frontera drills and data they have generated themselves. We also have some Ryder Scott work. These data estimates are staggering and no one can deny this is not absolutely world class land with several great plays – based on the petroleum consultants data.Q: Can we drill holes, work the rock and sustain a major field set of commercial flows?A: Frontera have presented an exploitation & development methodology for a super-multi-well strategy which has excited certain parties to take an interest in Block 12 over recent years, from MND Group / VTB, through to the recently announced majors – these are the ones the market knows about... OK, I totally agree that retail stockholders are lacking straightforward data to reassure the exploitation and development story, but if you step back (or talk to the right people) it's now clear to see that the Block 12 geology has been capitulating like a woodchuck since 2016 and the grind of it all has been getting the deals to plug the whole thing in. It just needs a whole lot of money throwing at it now.Next, a deal was finally nailed with mucky old Yorkville to help clean up and ready the Frontera balance sheet (announced in early June) and a little tussle subsequently developed with Yorkville (thru August and into Sept). My understanding is that this is not complicated stuff and an explanation on Thursday next at the stockholders meeting needs to be listened to really carefully to make sure there's no misunderstanding by retail - I understand that a sensible outcome has already presented itself and just needs working through with the lawyers. Like someone said on here, you don't fight over an empty box.

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 16:13

Kickmuck39 postsRE: Evening allAnd on the subject of that box, which quod erat demonstrandum is not empty... A comment on the arbitration issue with the Georgia State agency & the GOGC. Here, my understanding is that the issue is not so much about the contents of the box, which is now well understood by the relevant stakeholders, but about the pace and nature of the manifestation event; the exploitation timescales and how the PSC should be interpreted regarding certain territories in the block, for example, what Frontera refer to as the Basin Edge Play. So, the Miocene horizons at Basin edge (above the gnarly Cretaceous) are now extremely relevant by extrapolation from the staggering technical success at the Miocene Taribani zones. Read the 2005 NSA report on the Sarmatian horizons (S3) at the Basin Edge areas and feed that with the Taribani work into the declaration objectives under Article 9.4(c) of the PSC:1) There's not a lot of seismics for Basin Edge2) We now see a lot of oil in play in the Sarmatian 3) There's not much time with the Study period.4) How does that box get opened?And now understand: There are many juicy boxes in Block 12!And finally regarding the current pressure on the shareprice of FRR shares (with reverent sunlight on folks buying shares in London who have carried this work to here), as I understand it, certain commitments with regard to vendor stock are being processed, and other pre-agreed sellers are working through their deals – honestly I don't understand the details. Also, we know that all markets have the derivatives traders like the short selling guys who play their part and spin their story. I have to say; there is a lot of BS in some of the online news websites in the UK and a lot of BS gets posted on Twitter too. This pressure wont last forever - they'll take their turns and we'll get shot of them. It sounds trite to say a little bit of patience now, but go along next week, hear what Zaza has to say at the meeting in London and try once again to get your heads around 18 billion barrels oil and 202 tcf natural gas.

[mick1909] 17/10/2018 16:11

Madpunter1,118 postsRE: A LoanWhy is FRR now producing more oil?Perhaps after an EWT on T39 to get the descriptive test results, FRR are now doing productivity testing at much higher rates by reducing the choke and opening the size of the bore. The descriptive testing will enable FRR and the two super majors to calculate reservoir size, decline curve, flow rates and permeability, both horizontal and vertical. Whereas the productivity testing requires transient pressure changes, through varying choke sizes and stopping and starting the flow, to check if there's an homogeneous formation or low permeability zones.https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b4d2/d236dcd461181b957acc499f9cb4722740e6.pdfAssuming that FRR has been increasing the flow rate from T39 by altering the choke (at full bore 8 x 529bopd = 4232bopd, except the equation is not linear due to other factors), then after the 1st October auction, we would expect another within a month. Zaza did state 4 - 6 weeks to fill a trainload and there's an auction on the 22nd October. This time the quantity has increased to 9,000t = 69,390bbls. I wonder why two majors are interested and Zaza is so confident about paying the bills?

[wshak] 17/10/2018 15:58

Jaknife,

Do the bulls have any evidence that during well testing material quantities of oil are being pumped? Solid evidence (not pictures of trains!) of that would shut the shorters up.

You were at the meeting, weren't you? Did you not read Zaza's body language correctly?

What more solid evidence do you need when you had the chance to gaze into Zaza's eyes and see the promised land?

It sounds as though you weren't paying attention ...

[loglorry1] 17/10/2018 15:46

It's hilarious the way the bears plead with the bulls to show them evidence which supports their claims. We welcome proof that will burn us to a crisp. We say bring it on show us the oil gushing.

What we get is one excuse after the next. Never ending delays.

Meanwhile just about everyone that Frontera has a contract with is suing them or taking them into arbitration.