Frontera Share Discussion Threads

[loglorry1] 12/9/2018 15:22

>as it doesn't fit their agenda
It's called confirmation bias. We all suffer from it. The skill is trying to ask yourself the right questions.

I'd be very quick to close my short if FRR just announced in an RNS good, sustained flow rate of oil from the T-wells. They won't because they can't. It's really that simple.

[thefozzer] 12/9/2018 15:21

"The NDA doesn't prevent them releasing flow rate news."

How do you know is doesn't?

Ref YA payment. My response is sound and robust. Why issue a monthly RNS saying YA has or hasn't been paid. It's ridiculous and you know it Loggy.

Ref arbitration, it's all speculation but the Georgian gov seems to be making all the right noises about US companies. Two Majors have now given FRR permission to issue the RNS that a JV or other deal may occur. No court papers have been issued. This is obviously your trump card Loggy but I think you know deep down it's come to nothing.

Seriously, if I was short I'd make sure I had a guaranteed stop and that the amount gambled was small.

"That" RNS could land at anytime.

[jackthelad5] 12/9/2018 15:16

Well answered Foz seems that some here just don't take notice as it doesn't fit their agenda - dodge yeah right dream on fella

[dodge city] 12/9/2018 15:08

In the absence of news this is drifting down.


This is looking to go back to the low 20's until another update. I don't see any news coming until at least October.

[loglorry1] 12/9/2018 15:07

@fozzy very weak answers but well done for having a go. You think FRR care about the cost of issuing an RNS vs the value to shareholders? If they can show that they are paying YA in cash they'd be a huge boost to the share price. Massive! It would be a massive return on the cost of an RNS. When have FRR ever held back news that was positive? Never ever! Find me an example. Go through all the years of RNSs and find me a single example where good news was held back. It just never ever happens.

"less said the better now" - Oh c'mon! It's a legal requirement for them to release this news if arbitration has ended. It's not something they can ignore.

"Testing still on-going for the oil wells and NDA now entered into with two Oil Majors (Speculation one is Exxon)"

The NDA doesn't prevent them releasing flow rate news. Testing was 60 days they said they would update. They have 60 days of data they should update the market. They can say so far its X but we are still testing.

If you think they are prevented from releasing flow rate news cos of an NDA I can't help you.

[thefozzer] 12/9/2018 15:01

Good luck with GKP Loggy.

To much civil unrest and polital risk for my liking. Huge potential though with oil prices soaring

[thefozzer] 12/9/2018 14:59

If the T wells are flowing commercially why not give the rate?

Testing still on-going for the oil wells and NDA now entered into with two Oil Majors (Speculation one is Exxon)

If the arbitration is over or only about a small point why not say so?

Fair point but i suspect the whole thing is massively sensitive for the Georgian government and could be a case of less said the better now.

If the Niko money has arrived why not say so?

Niko money hasn't arrived. Everything now up for discussion now two Oil Majors are looking to do a deal with FRR. Niko may never get drilled with FRR as the lead operator.

If they are paying YA in cash why not say so?

Why do FRR need to say so? Every RNS issued cost money, you want FRR to issue a separate RNS every month stating YA is or isn't paid? Seriously Loggy?. I dont see other companies issuing an RNS every time a bit of debt is paid down.

Just a view.

[loglorry1] 12/9/2018 14:27

From April’s RNS -

The Company considers the Request to be without merit and has engaged legal counsel to protect its rights. The Company intends, if the administrative formalities are followed through and the statement is submitted by the authors of the Request, to respond to each point and ensure that the Company's rights are protected. The Company is confident of its standing and complete compliance with the PSC.
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Yes @tickboo they were forced to admit they were in arbitration with the Georgian state when it was leaked elsewhere. The NOMAD would have insisted because price sensitive news like this must be delivered timely and through a regulated RNS channel. Of course FRR say they are confident it has no merit. They always would say this. It's the default position of any company going into an argument. Make no mistake though that this sort of very expensive arbitration doesn't happen over a minor disagreement as you seem to want to pretend.

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From Sept’s RNS -

At this stage the Company has continued to see consistent oil and gas delivery from the relevant wells but is not yet in a position to report volumes until such time as the longer term tests are completed as described above
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So what's the flow rate? The above is equally true for 10 boepd as 500 boepd. It doesn't even say "consistent commercial oil and gas delivery" If it was at a commercial rate why not say so and give the rate? FRR have form in this sort of thing. I'd go as far to say they do very little else.

If the T wells are flowing commercially why not give the rate?
If the arbitration is over or only about a small point why not say so?
If the Niko money has arrived why not say so?
If they are paying YA in cash why not say so?

Sadly (for them) the bulls can't answer any of these questions except to rely on carefully worded RNSs and add huge dollops of supposition e.g. YA are being paid in cash because otherwise they'd have to RNS that shares had been issued. Or the arbitration is over because they've not told us what it's about (laughable when you consider they were forced to RNS they were in arbitration it in the first place).

Mole is a bit of a daftie but he's right about one thing, oil majors are very conservative. They don't enter into a JV with a company with a history like FRR especially when FRR are in arbitration with their host government.

Good luck

[mick1909] 12/9/2018 12:07

Buys and sellsBusiness is business and the MM's 100's of companies in their portfolio and they will have allocated accounts to traders who in turn will have a revenue target to hit. These account managers do not care if it is a buy/sell related to a short (or ramp) as long as targets are hit or exceeded as their next new expensive car is on order. FRR must be a dream account for one of them as you have shorts in play and a seller that keeps dropping significant quantities that are absorbed quite quickly. They will know the broker selling and buying in all cases so a picture will emerge that helps them understand the account trading pattern and they will adjust plans to optimise the best returns. The MM's will not employee rampers or derampers as FCA will remover their licence and they do not need them as long as we have shorters, day traders and LTH in play as enough incentive to wind each other up. Trading is a game payed with real money and will break a lot of hearts unless you try and do a lot of research and reduce risk. FRR have a large band of LTH that have looked at the company/people/politics/market and decided that its worth a punt (as does Bod share trades, Outrider, GG, AC, US gov, ii, others investing in Georgia O&G blocks and now two majors looking at FRR "empty box"). Will this change the trading pattern or stop the shorts/ramp – no even when we get the news we have been waiting for – just that it will be in a different share price range. Business is business.

[ccr1958] 12/9/2018 10:17

Anyone else feel the room shaking 😉

[ccr1958] 12/9/2018 10:13

We’ll see

[tickboo] 12/9/2018 10:11

1 codes mean sod all mate!

[ccr1958] 12/9/2018 10:09

1 code just gone thru RNS lodged ?

[ccr1958] 12/9/2018 09:39

There ya go done ... another 830880

[tickboo] 12/9/2018 09:37

The bears also wanted an RNS to confirm an NDA was in place. Originally we were told there was 1 and I assume as another one was in place and things had moved along since that attended management meetings and extended site visits they out out an RNS also to explain why no flow rates and the wells are testing for longer. You can't please some.

[ccr1958] 12/9/2018 09:37

I am just about to put some of my GKP profit right in here ... Thankyou very much .

[thefozzer] 12/9/2018 09:27

Tickboo if that were true the arbitration would be over and that would require an RNS.

You say consistent oil and gas production, what's the rate?
_________________________________________________________________________

Loggy the share price is up 60% from last week...if that's bombing I'll have a bit of that.

Tickoo, can you sense the bears are getting increasingly desperate?

"That" RNS could land at any moment. I've been waiting a few years for this moment...Am I selling? Nooooooo Chance.

Good luck

[jackthelad5] 12/9/2018 09:05

You just can't please some people tickboo lol

[tickboo] 12/9/2018 09:03

From April's RNS -The Company considers the Request to be without merit and has engaged legal counsel to protect its rights. The Company intends, if the administrative formalities are followed through and the statement is submitted by the authors of the Request, to respond to each point and ensure that the Company's rights are protected. The Company is confident of its standing and complete compliance with the PSC.Further details will be provided to the market in due course when available to the Company.From Sept's RNS -At this stage the Company has continued to see consistent oil and gas delivery from the relevant wells but is not yet in a position to report volumes until such time as the longer term tests are completed as described above

[loglorry1] 12/9/2018 08:59

Tickboo if that were true the arbitration would be over and that would require an RNS.

You say consistent oil and gas production, what's the rate?

[ccr1958] 12/9/2018 08:54

The Georgians smell money and they would very much like a bit of the action...as at least 2 majors sniffing

[tickboo] 12/9/2018 08:45

The bears have talked about a placing for months on end. Nowt. Zaza said the wells continue to produce consistent oil and gas.The Georgian gov have not put forward their arbitration points so FRR don't know what they are. Maybe they won't with the US gov meetings.

[ccr1958] 12/9/2018 08:42

If the MMs let this go we are in for a good day .

[thefozzer] 12/9/2018 08:35

Dodge 55m you mean.

Anyway that's the AIM. Frontera could have a billion dollar market cap in a few months so is 55 cheap now or expensive?

Zone 19 doing 250 bopd suggest other wells could the same. Payback in 8 months then tens millions in profit.

Free market, free BB, still "just about" freedom of thought and speech.