Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[2603] 25/7/2020 15:58

We need a pull back or consolidation, to get out of over sold conditions. Also so I can efin top up.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 25/7/2020 09:43

Give it up t180. For what is left of your mental stability. Again for the record:

When have I ever claimed to some sort of genius trader? As opposed to yourself - Post 10423.

Obviously I do not buy at 1100 and sell them at 700 - a bit more to it than that. And obviously I don't have any losses at all. Unlike you, if you do what you say you do. Posts 10635 and 10893.

But this is not about me. It's about you. Your issue with me is that I pointed out that you tell porkies (10329-10344). Your ineptitude is a separate albeit related issue. You just can't accept that you told porkies, were wrong, caught at it and have a pathetic response of attempting to shoot the messenger. Posts 10217, 10294, 10416 by you, 11257 and 11265 by me.

And no mention of the volume point? You being a brilliant trader and able to change 'in the blink of an eye'? Never mind how that invalidates all of the 'trading insight' you claim to have, because it is out of date the moment you decide you have 'changed your mind', how do you actually change your position on the volumes you would have to be trading to make the sort of returns you claim to be making?

And don't forget the still-ignored occasion when you made your claim that FRES was going down (the day after still predicting 3000+), you sold at 760 because the production outlook had changed with the results in February. Even though they put the same slide up in early December. Which you didn't read or notice in December due to incompetence, or chose to ignore because at the time it was published you were pushing the 'share price to infinity' theme (as you are now doing again). But you continue to ignore that point.

I point this stuff out because you are dangerous to others, with your claims of what will happen here, and your lies, distortions and omissions to suit your own ends. Most people are aware that you are a personality disorder with a tenuous relationship with reality - but some are not.

Call it a public service, if you will.

[trader536] 24/7/2020 22:05

Gold 2016 breakout and all time high close now....

[trader536] 24/7/2020 21:33

The smart traders are looking at the 2016 highs in PM's and PM miners as a reference point. PM's have broken out of the 2016 highs, the likes of CEY and POLY have already reached or exceeded the 2016 highs. FRES is still traveling while others have arrived.

Its far more profitable to buy a stock while its traveling rather than buying after its arrival.

FRES 2016 high is 68% ahead and FRES foot is on the gas pedal, run your winners....


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[jono123] 24/7/2020 19:08

Copy and paste the address into archive.is and the page will come up. This one is it:hxxp://archive.is/ooVYiWorks for the DT too.

[ashwani01] 24/7/2020 08:15

Need subscription

[lovewinshatelosses] 24/7/2020 07:20

Thanks - I will make a note of it.

[ukgeorge] 23/7/2020 22:11

Read Reminiscences of a Stock Operatorby Edwin LefevreIt is fantastic although it makes you want to go all in on shares.

[lovewinshatelosses] 23/7/2020 20:25

Just read up on Jesse Livermore. Not sure if it was the multiple bankruptcies or the multiple women troubles that led to his end. Joking (in poor taste) aside, I guess he went out on his own terms, but equally a cautionary tale for all traders too. What a genius though. If only he could have tempered things a bit - but not in his nature I suppose.

[15glenrose] 23/7/2020 15:21

Poor man's precious metal will make Fresnillo and silver backers rich nowhttps://www.ft.com/stream/bb32468d-9aa2-4c64-87c3-9c9a516f8c08

[roguetreader] 23/7/2020 14:45

That was my thoughts. Prior to the recent significant increases in Au and (especially) Ag prices (if they hold)I think they were possibly getting nervous re the level of capital spend relative to earnings and potential increase in debt levels, over the next 12 - 24 months. They may therefore be / have been considering pushing out Orisyvo to reduce this at the expense of bringing on replacement production 2+ years out. Just guessing, will be interesting to see if there is any more detail in the H1 financials.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 23/7/2020 12:31

Yeah, I don't think it's much, but it's more that they're not including the numbers in their projections for 2021 and 2022, when they should be purchasing and installing significant amounts of hard physical machinery and incurring pre-production capex spend. I don't think the issue is that they may not go ahead - they need to to replace Herradura output.

They say production isn't included either, but then there won't be any in 2021 and 2022. And not in 2023 unless they spend capex in 2021 and 2022...

Just seems a bit odd to me, not least as it seemed to get them out of a bit of a hole in their numbers when they first omitted it.

Maybe I wouldn't be surprised if it somehow goes back in with current levels of cash generation?

[roguetreader] 23/7/2020 12:15

IMA
they still have the following statements re Orisyvo in the 2020 May 'BofA: Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference' presentation:

- 'Following improved metallurgy recovery results in 2019, full scale metallurgical test work is to be undertaken over the entirety of the main ore bodies in 2020'

and

- 'Initial PEA complete - further work underway'

this suggests to me that some capital will be spent on Orisyvo in 2020, exactly how much will be interesting to see.

[plunger2] 23/7/2020 11:39

A tad wrong there Boris.
Your hair is a covidian masterpiece by the way.
Long on lawnmowers.

[plunger2] 23/7/2020 10:25

NO DOUBT ABOUT IT!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 23/7/2020 10:19

Well, there is nuance and detail on production volumes, both this year and through to 2024, particularly with regard to gold. See their outlook slides - slide 43. This was also published in December, but not everyone noticed that.

There is also complexity on the costs side, including CV19 costs, but also everything they have previously outlined in their results presentations (which not all of us read). See their analysis slides from the 2019 results - slides 32-36.



And there is the future capital commitment, and their ability to fund it, and indeed execute it without ballsing it up. I did have concerns about that in 2019, but obviously this is mitigated as detailed in previous posts. People might have noticed that they stopped including Orisyvo capital costs in their future capital funding slides (Slide 44, and in earlier presentations.) Or they may not.

But nuance, detail, complexity, exceptions, uncertainty - all dwarfed by the impact of the higher metals prices. For now, anyway. Which is why some of us manage our holding levels as part of risk management - taking profits.


(Incidentally, some of us find, in the real world that we inhabit, that it's quite difficult to buy - and sell - 40,000 to 50,000 of these 'in the blink of an eye'. And that it is maybe best done gradually, over time, at different prices.

But if you are punting 500 or 1000 shares around, it can be done instantly. And as an alternative to being a brilliant trader, which not all us can manage to achieve, maybe that's what some people do - as part of holding much larger numbers overall. Many times. And again. And they keep on doing it. And make a lot of money out of it.

Just musing…)

[plunger2] 23/7/2020 10:12

So in summary:

Revenues:
PM prices absolutely ROCKETING

Costs:
MXN well down on previous
PoO well down on previous

Therefore:

It just doesn't get any sweeter - it is the sweetist of sweet spots: