Foresight Solar Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 24/11/2022 09:52

Levy to have negligible effect:

[carterit] 18/11/2022 17:55

The exclusion of battery storage is clearly good for funds in this sub-sector: Gresham House (GRID), Gore Street (GSF) and Harmony Energy Income (HEIT).

Winterflood also pointed out that if biogas was confirmed as exempt, it would benefit JLEN Environmental Assets (JLEN), a diversified fund that generates some of its revenue from the sale of heat and biogas and enjoys some subsidy in the form of the feed-in-tariff scheme.

With its portfolio focused on Ireland and Europe, Greencoat Renewables (GRP) is also in the clear.

Chande said other funds with less than 30% UK exposure and at low risk from the levy were Thomas Lloyd (TLEI), Ecofin US Renewables (RNEW), Aquila European Renewables (AERI) and SDCL Energy Efficiency Income (SEIT).

VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities (GSEO) should also be excluded as its only UK asset is a gas-powered plant with carbon-capture facilities, said Chande.

‘While we do await finer details of the levy, the initial technical note indicated that behind-the-meter solar rooftop projects supplied by Atrato Onsite Energy (ROOF) will be exempt whilst Downing Renewables (DORE) is exempt due to UK capacity being under a 100GWh/pa de minimis allowance,’ the analyst said.

Funds such as Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) and Bluefield Solar Income (BSIF) with the highest exposure to subsidised CfD and ROC revenues should see a smaller reduction in NAVs, said Winterflood’s Ratnasingam.

UK Wind rose 3% yesterday, one of the biggest risers in the sector, and rallied another 3.7% today. Foresight Solar (FSFL) and NextEnergy Solar (NESF) gained over 2% yesterday.

The latter’s rise may have surprised Ratnasingam as he believed FSFL could be the most vulnerable to a knock to NAV as it had recently set its power price assumption at the higher end of the sector range of £80-£175/MWh for 2023 and £65-£150/MWh in 2024.

By contrast, he said NESF was ‘relatively attractive’ because of its investments in battery storage through a 500MW joint venture with Eelpower. Investor’s Newell estimated it was in line for a reduction in NAV of just 0.3%.

However, further clarification is needed as Chande included NESF, BSIF and UKW in a list of five that also included Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) and JLEN he believed could see reductions of around 2.5% in NAV.

‘Arguably this is already reflected in discounts,’ he said. Until the smoke clears, however, those gaps between share prices and NAVs look set to remain.

[melton john] 18/11/2022 12:03

Thanks jonwig, had to register to read it but they accept Private Investor as company. Citywire is a useful site I had forgotten my login for. Good to read that battery storage is excempt from windfall tax.

[jonwig] 18/11/2022 07:18

Renewables fairly happy with the level of the excess tax:

[jonwig] 17/11/2022 16:50

Aleman - thank you for that. So the key number is £75/ MWhr. The market doesn't seem fazed/

[aleman] 17/11/2022 13:39

Seems likely to be an indirect benefit from this, perhaps.



We estimate reforms to Solvency 2 will allow Aviva to invest at least £25 billion over the next ten years across the UK, including in critical areas such as social housing, schools, hospitals and green energy projects.

[bluemango] 11/11/2022 10:13

BlackRock increased slightly; holding notice yesterday.

[melton john] 07/11/2022 09:24

I bought a few more today. A good selection of owned assets makes it an easier way to get diversified exposure to renewable power rather than a bunch of separate companies to keep an eye on imho. Solar and battery storage, here and abroad, around the clock.

[edwardt] 07/11/2022 08:50

good update. well covered divi even with power price tax. happy holder

[edward3] 18/10/2022 10:47

Decided to buy a few purely for the 6.67% divis and any potential growth ..

[jonwig] 10/10/2022 11:11

They are threatening to invest in the EU, where the price cap is not so severe. FSFL is already in Spain, of course.

[cc2014] 10/10/2022 10:49

Based on what the government has done to share prices today on the renewables, there is no now chance of them raising additional capital through share issues in order to invest in new renewables which we desperately need.

Another complete screw up for them.

[jonwig] 10/10/2022 09:47

Further, today;

Renewable energy companies will tell UK ministers this week that a planned cap on the revenues they generate from sky-high wholesale power prices must not be more punitive than a similar EU policy — or they risk an investment exodus to Europe.

The UK government is drawing up plans for a temporary revenue cap, similar to one already outlined by the European Union as part of efforts to lower wholesale energy prices, which closely track those of gas and have surged since Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine. Legislation, which would be needed to institute a cap, is expected as early as this week.



Suggests we should not be lower than the EU cap (€180/MWH). That would be manageable.
But following the EU ... what a thought!

[jonwig] 09/10/2022 08:41

BODGEMAN - indeed!

FT yesterday:

The UK government is pressing ahead with plans to cap revenues that renewable electricity generators are making from sky-high wholesale power prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Companies generating power from wind and solar fear the plans, similar to proposals already announced by the European Union, will effectively amount to a windfall tax on renewable energy.
- - -
The government had been hoping to persuade electricity generators to agree voluntarily to 15-year fixed-price contracts well below current wholesale rates for their output.


The sky high profits are from the ROCs contracts, which were replaced in 2017 by FIT/CFD contracts, where excessive profits are impossible. However, existing ROCS can continue until 2037.

This would be harsher than Sunak's windfall tax on O&G prodicers. It wll need legislation, which Labour and some Tories would probably not support. (Nor would I, but that's irrelevant.)

[bodgeman] 05/10/2022 16:54

Another shocker for renewables today. We need some clarity from the gov on subsidies and how exactly they intend to meet net zero. All that plus interest rates and inflation going up just makes new infrastructure more expensive. We need a very clear statement from the gov so we can all make decisions rather than second guessing what's coming next.

[yump] 30/9/2022 09:32

Missed the bottom but I expect there will be another dip - no rush imo

[masurenguy] 30/9/2022 07:21

Acquisition of a 49.9 MW battery storage project

Foresight Solar is pleased to announce the acquisition of a 50% equity stake in Gigabox No 4 Limited ("Gigabox No 4") which holds the development rights to construct a 49.9MW lithium-ion battery energy storage plant in Angus, Scotland. The investment has been made alongside JLEN Environmental Assets Group Limited, which will also acquire a 50% equity stake, and the acquisition will see the Company invest up to £16.4m from existing cash balances. The project is fully consented and construction-ready and is expected to start commercial operations in early 2024. The project will be connected to Scottish Hydro Electric Power Distribution plc's distribution network and has a 49.9MW import and export connection. The connection will be initially for a capacity of 45MW, increasing to the full 49.9MW capacity by early 2025.

This acquisition represents the Company's third investment into battery storage systems adding to the two standalone batteries that the Company owns. Foresight Solar is currently assessing an extensive pipeline of UK BSS opportunities that can deliver further attractive returns to shareholders.

[melton john] 29/9/2022 10:08

I bought another 2500 @ 108.112, plenty of room for long term capital growth as earnings from electrical power increase imho.

[yump] 29/9/2022 08:46

As I understand it from reading a bit, some pension funds ran a risk of running out of cash to cover margin calls, on hedging derivatives that they use to stabilise funds against changes in bond rates. So a sudden increase in gov borrowing caused a jump in long dated gilt rates, which triggered those margin calls.

I only half understand that !

And fsfl and the rest have fallen because the rate on gov gilts could possibly have jumped well above what you can get here. Plus the gov gilt return is guaranteed, so if it was 5%, then the returns on these trusts doesn’t look as attractive.

[madmix] 29/9/2022 08:31

EC2,

Well done on buying at 104p. There were some real bargains around yesterday morning, but sadly I was away from the screen when the BoE news came in, and most of the afternoon, so didn't take advantage.

Looking at current prices vs last reported NAV on the solar funds, I think things have bounced back to a more sensible level (without trying to run the numbers on their sensitivity to gilt yields).

FSFL 110p vs 123.8p NAV (11.1% Discount)
NESF 107p vs 121.7p NAV (12.1% Discount)
BSIF 126p vs 140p NAV (10% Discount)

[cynicalsteve] 28/9/2022 17:15

Sky News says that the Bank of England intervened in the gilts market today to prevent pension schemes becoming insolvent. Supposedly low risk income funds like FSFL will also be held by pension schemes so I wonder if forced selling by these funds is one of the reasons for their remarkable fall. When we describe investments as low risk we do so based on certain assumptions, if those assumptions are no longer true all hell breaks loose.