Foresight Solar Share Discussion Threads

[ec2] 27/11/2020 14:36

Look cheap to me so have just bought some more at 100.8435p. Wholesale electricity prices continue to be firming and I'm expecting to rise further once we move forward next year after lockdown. Due to my positive views on elec prices I have also bought earlier today some TRIG as well and some more GCP earlier in the week.

[nerja] 27/11/2020 10:39

I can’t figure this one, the gap is getting very close to the nav in comparison with others.

[gateside] 27/11/2020 10:33

Bought in October at 103p and share price has done nothing since then. At least the dividend is paid today.

[llef] 27/11/2020 08:16

Given that a large chunk of the value of FSFL is due to RPI indexed ROCs, then I imagine that the changes (down) to RPI calculations from 2030 onwards will affect the NPV at year end calculations? Is this why the price is drifting down?

[rustle2] 14/11/2020 09:55

Agree, just need to watch out for the fundraises / share issuance but drip feeding minimises that. Often above NAV but causes a share price dip. UKW for instance being held down by ongoing programme likely at 131p.

[gateside] 13/11/2020 21:54

Agree, but every share has a potential for a capital loss, but this is about as low risk as they come.All the renewable funds trade above NAV, but Foresight it at a much smaller premium.Renewable energy is not going away!

[rustle2] 13/11/2020 16:37

or potential capital loss. Just covering all the bases as we trade above NAV ...

[gateside] 13/11/2020 14:37

Solid update. Forward yield of 6.65% with potential capital gain. Happy to hold and reinvest dividends.

[gateside] 28/10/2020 15:22

Goes ex-dividend tomorrow

[gateside] 16/10/2020 19:49

Thanks nerja.After I saw the placing was oversubscribed this afternoon, I bought a few SEIT - will look to build up a bigger holding.Also bought a few FSFL as they look undervalued compared to their peers at present.

[nerja] 16/10/2020 11:20

Gate side another one is SEIT energy efficiency, it’s doing a placing now price has dropped so maybe a good time to enter

[gateside] 16/10/2020 10:38

Thanks, I'll have a look at GRID

[gateside] 16/10/2020 10:37

I agree that TRIG are expensive at the moment, I would not buy them at current price, but happy to keep my holding there and reinvest dividends.

[nerja] 16/10/2020 09:51

Worth taking a look at GRID energy storage, fits in well with these solar wind funds

[ec2] 16/10/2020 09:39

Have also held TRIG in the past but they are a bit too expensive for me at the moment. Having said that I got out of them too early thinking they were expensive at 125p. I'd had a good run though with a 25% capital gain and the good div which was primarily what I'd bought them for.

[ec2] 16/10/2020 09:30

Thanks, interesting... I see that the cushion of spare electricity will still be lower than last year despite the expected lower demand.

[gateside] 16/10/2020 09:22

I hold TRIG JLEN and ORITLooking to buy in here too - renewable resources are the energy of the future.

[ec2] 16/10/2020 09:16

Thanks not aware of the article. Weather obviously averages out over the longer term. Interestingly GCP Infrastructure reduced their NAV today due to lower power prices but they are using trailing averages over the last four quarters in their calculations. I'm taking a more forward looking approach in that prices have turned higher than last year in Sept and Oct and see a positive trend forming. GCP which is a completely different beast to FSFL is the only other renewables holding I currently have.

[gateside] 16/10/2020 09:07

Guardian are saying there will be no blackouts due to lower demandhTTps://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/15/uk-may-avoid-winter-blackouts-lower-demand-national-grid-pandemic-coronavirus?utm_term=e3e0514d913c220316f0247200a3e043&utm_campaign=BusinessToday&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=bustoday_email

[llef] 16/10/2020 07:57

EC2 - ok, thanks. I saw yesterday, that the Telegraph had a (scare?) story about the National Grid issuing a warning notice about it running out of spare capacity due to low wind generation and some other generators being temporarily unavailable. If repeated, could see some big spikes in electricity prices in the colder winter months. Obv, the amount of sun the UK gets is also quite crucial to FSFL's fortunes. Just for info, the site below gives updates for various weather stations (e.g. ST ATHAN has had 32% of normal October monthly sun, it should be around 50% by now, but plemnty of time still to go obv..) hxxp://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html cheers

[ec2] 15/10/2020 16:13

I'm not entirely sure. The electricity price increase is 17-20% compared to natural gas (which impacts elec. prices) over the same corresponding months of about 10%. The move away from fossil fuels to greener energy may play a part but this is just a guess. What's important for me is the continued security of the current 6.5+% div. Over the 12 month period to 30 June which included the time of lowest electricity prices the div was covered 1.1times. Therefore with electricity prices now higher the div will be better covered all other things being equal. Today's day ahead ave auction price came in even higher at 56.02 GBP/MWh. Obviously if we go back into a full COVID lockdown electricity prices could again drop back as they are purely demand driven but it didn't overly impact div cover last time round. You could actually argue that with many working from home during the winter months electricity demand could go higher.

[llef] 14/10/2020 20:10

EC2 - thanks for the info re Nord Pool. Their website is very interesting and full of detail. Any ideas why electricity prices in Sep and Oct are stronger this year than last? cheers

[ec2] 14/10/2020 19:53

Wholesale electricity price data comes from Nord Pool which is the main European electricity trading venue. Note in the case of FSFL most recently they had forward fixed price contracts for 30% of their output so they are not entirely dependant on variable prices but as they are to a large extent I keep tabs on day ahead auction prices. Also note the fixed price agreements were recently quoted in the half year update at around 45.71 GBP/MWh. Today's average day ahead auction price was at 46.73 GBP/MWh so it's actually better than the fixed price arrangement. Also for data source completeness my share-price premium calculations mentioned in my earlier post are from Sharescope and cross checked with RNS data. Latest price to NAVs from Sharescope COB tonight are FSFL 9.25% premium and TRIG 20.38% premium.

[llef] 14/10/2020 16:11

EC2 - where did you get the current wholesale electricity prices? thanks

[ec2] 14/10/2020 16:03

Topped up with more of these today following further analysis on the direction of wholesale electricity prices. Ave Day Ahead auction prices in Sept 2019 was 36.20 GBP/MWh compared to the higher 43.78 GBP/MWh in Sep 2020. October 2019 was 36.87 GBP/MWh compared to October 2020 so far of 43.26 GBP/MWh. Prices are well up from the lows of 24.18 and 22.27 GBP/MWh last Apr and May. Gives confidence in continued div payment level. FSFL looks cheaper than other Renewable Energy Infra. Funds. TRIG for example premium to NAV approx 20% compared to FSFL approx 10% so hopefully also room for a little cap appreciation too.