Fonix Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 21/9/2023 10:46

Cavendish also retain their 270p target price.

[rivaldo] 21/9/2023 09:49

Cavendish now - "conservatively" - forecast 9.5p EPS, a 7.8p dividend and a £10.9m cash pile for this year.

They summarise:

"A robust investment case –

Fonix is focused upon leveraging its highly scalable, cloud-based platform to expand with existing clients and win new clients as mobile payments continue to
scale. The structural strength of the platform is demonstrated by no churn from major customers in seven years, and it is diligently expanding its market-leading technology outside of the UK when led by existing clients. The successful execution of the strategy has driven Total Payment Value (TPV) to £268m in FY23 from £125m in FY18, adjusted EBITDA to £11.6m in FY23 from £3.3m in FY18, and underlying EFCF to £9.0m in FY23. We conservatively forecast adjusted EBITDA growth of +9% in FY24 and +10% in FY25, and expect that any upside to our forecasts would benefit from strong operational gearing through to EFCF, which would be returned to shareholders through the progressive dividend policy."

[maiken] 21/9/2023 07:50

Can you tell us what the upgraded forecasts are please rivaldo ?

[rivaldo] 21/9/2023 07:40

Very good results, in line with the trading update which resulted in upgrades from Finncap/Cavendish.

A lovely 7.8p dividend for the year. Huge recurring income. Ireland is really taking off now. There are other international opportunities in the air. Even the charitable sector which declined with the economic downturn is turning positive (though given the small margins this sector is much less important than others).

Above all, the tone of the narrative is extremely bullish. In particular:

"The first few months of the new financial year have started strongly, with a robust run-rate of consumer activity with our key customers. We continue to make great progress on our strategic goals and recognise that by delivering on these objectives and nurturing recent client wins we have a great opportunity to exceed expectations."

[t-raider] 21/9/2023 06:14

A nice set of results and the divi increased.. no complaints here !

[igoe104] 21/9/2023 06:14

Excellent update, nearly 14% growth on profits and a increase in the dividend. 99% reoccurring revenues..

[vikeshm1] 10/8/2023 15:52

Was thinking might be time 2 buy at low price but stockopedia has it as potential high earnings manipulation risk. It says there are excessive accruals to assets which "may mean managers are making discretionary accounting choices to alter earnings".

i have no idea what this means or if i should be worried? It says accrual to assets index is 0.04 it should be under 0.02. Maybe some 1 could explain this and work out if it is something or nothing?

[johndoe23] 10/8/2023 10:04

Agreed. Certainly a lot of crazy prices around

[lammylover] 10/8/2023 09:14

Just added at £1.82, they have a limited amount for sale at this price. Just the market makers spooking the market into selling a few shares at daft prices. FNX now 20% below peak price of 230p following excellent results.....crazy times we live in..

[igoe104] 10/8/2023 08:56

All it takes is one decent size seller, it creates a dominoes effect,with stop losses being hit. Because no many buyers this time of year.

These are definitely worth topping up, this company is preforming well...

[johndoe23] 10/8/2023 08:34

August malaise maybe? Support at 195p gone, next stop 170p ish perhaps

[alan@bj] 09/8/2023 15:29

Ouch! what happened there?

[igoe104] 20/7/2023 14:25

Writeup from champion investor.

[rivaldo] 20/7/2023 11:22

Finncap have reiterated their 270p target price.

They summarise:

"Strong trading drives FY23 upgrades of +4-5%

In today’s trading update, Fonix has announced FY23 gross profit +5% ahead at £15.1m, adjusted EBITDA +4% ahead at £11.6m, and confirmed confidence in the group’s prospects for FY24 and beyond. FY23 TPV of £268.1m is +1% ahead of our previous forecast, the platform engaged with a record 19m customers in FY23, and customer retention has continued at 100%. Both the payments and messaging segments delivered over +16% yoy gross profit growth, and scaled gross profit as a % of TPV to 5.6% from 5.1% in FY22.

The FY23 launch in Ireland has demonstrated robust progress, with 16% of the Irish adult population already using Fonix’s platform for a payment transaction, and all three tier 1 media clients in Ireland now live on the platform. The success of the Irish operation provides an excellent blueprint for expansion into other international markets, as Fonix aspires to be the world’s leading provider of interactive services.

Following tier 1 client wins and expansions in the UK and Ireland, including ITV in March, the outlook confirms a strong revenue run-rate for FY24, with a growing pipeline of prospects across all sectors and markets. After today’s update drives upgrades of +4-5% for FY23 gross profit and adjusted EBITDA, we conservatively reiterate our FY24 forecasts at this point, and look forward to further detail at the FY23 results on 21 September.

As the platform scales, it is continuing to generate strong growth in underlying free cash flow, and the board intends to grow the dividend in line with the progressive dividend policy to pay out at least 75% of adjusted EPS. We reiterate
our target price of 270p based on 3% FY24E EFCF and dividend yield, and as Fonix continues to deliver upon the investment case by expanding with existing clients and winning new clients from a growing UK and international pipeline, we look forward to further updates on international launches, and new contract wins."

[rivaldo] 20/7/2023 06:23

Great to see the year end trading update coming in ahead of expectations - the £11.6m EBITDA compares well to Finncap's £11.1m forecast (and more than the "marginally" ahead noted in the statement imo!).

The main drivers for growth continue to gather steam, with Ireland in particular growing quickly and well ahead of expectations. The third tier 1 media client launch bodes well for the current year.

Both payments and messaging grew a very handy 16%, only held back by a decline in charity TPV which is much lower margin anyway.

And the outlook is extremely confident:

"Outlook:

With high levels of repeating revenue, a strong run-rate entering the new financial year, recent tier 1 wins in the UK and Ireland as well as a growing pipeline of client prospects across all sectors and markets, the Board continues to be confident in the growth potential for Fonix going into FY24 and beyond.

Rob Weisz, CEO, commented:

"We are delighted to announce another year of strong profitable growth. We started the financial year with an ambition to be a market leader in a second territory within two years of launch and have achieved that feat in the first year. In recent months, we have announced significant new contract wins in both the UK and Ireland, underpinning our growth expectations for the year ahead and furthering our aspiration to be the world's leading provider of interactive services.

As well as clear growth opportunities in our existing markets, we now also have a proven template for success in international markets, which we will look to replicate and announce as and when other new territories are making a meaningful contribution to our growth."

[igoe104] 20/7/2023 06:18

Very good update from FNX good double digit growth..

[starpukka] 14/6/2023 22:35

Why today's rise ? If it was due to Soccer Aid, wouldn't it have occurred earlier in the week ?

[rivaldo] 14/6/2023 14:23

Yep, continuing the upward trend since IPO in 2020 and bouncing off the, erm, quintuple bottom :o))

[igoe104] 14/6/2023 12:47

Nice jump today.

[igoe104] 11/6/2023 17:50

FNX should do well out of soccer aid tonight, lots of transactions to be processed.

[rivaldo] 18/5/2023 06:12

Glad to see FNX's EBT planning to buy in up to 250,000 shares.

I like the sound of:

"The directors believe that conducting a small buyback of shares is a good use of the Company's large and growing cash balance"

[red ninja] 06/5/2023 16:43

From Fonix's Linkedin feed :-

CARRIER BILLING SPEND TO REACH $122 BILLION GLOBALLY BY 2027, AS REVENUE EXPANDS BEYOND CONTENT PURCHASES

[igoe104] 29/3/2023 15:10

Also 99% income is of a repeating nature.

I already hold big chunk of these, but I wouldn't mind adding more, fancy these to muti-Bag over the next 10 years. Especially as they expand into loads of new territories...

[hydrus] 29/3/2023 15:05

I don't think just looking at the numbers is sufficient to understand whether this is expensive and or good value.Fonix become completely embedded in the commercial ventures of their clients, generating new revenues that were not there before they helped them. This is the reason they never, ever lose major clients. Management are conservative and expanding carefully. I believe this is a sustainable, high quality business and it will do well for many years. It looks cheap to me because of those reasons.

[igoe104] 29/3/2023 14:54

Adam its down to seasonality of the trade of the significant media customers. Thats why they are first half weighed...

These look a solid investment , as the world adapts to more mobile payments plus FNX have lots of global markets to aim for..

They have just entered Austria, Germany , Ireland..