Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 01/12/2021 11:35

They may get back there if they can trade through current problems. Otherwise debt is in danger of sinking them. A pre-emptive cash raise might be wise.

[hamhamham1] 01/12/2021 11:22

On 3rd Jan 2020, these were trading at 2050p, now they are 324p, so that's over a 6x increase to get back there, not saying they will go all the way back in the short term, but even half way isn't unreasonable in the not too distant future.

[hamhamham1] 01/12/2021 11:13

And they operate in many markets.
Oil and gas
Marine
Nuclear
Defence
Transport & infrastructure
Renewable energy
Ports & terminals
Construction.

[hamhamham1] 01/12/2021 11:06

This has a market capital of £165m.
It has a Net Asset Value of £235m.
The 4 years leading up to last accounts to before 31.12.20 has increasing sales and generally increasing profits.
I am happy to buy and hold for a few years to let it recover.

[bouleversee] 01/12/2021 10:08

Good to see it up a bit today for a change.

[tabhair] 01/12/2021 09:44

Apologies for the shameless plug, but I wrote up an article on James Fisher that may be of interest.

tabhaircom.wordpress.com/2021/12/01/james-fisher-december-2021

The positives, it has a 175 year history, always generated cash flow, and has survived previous challenges without damaging share holders.

The negatives, the balance sheet is in a precarious situation and I am not sure it can survive another year of poor trading without a capital raise.

My guess is it can trade its way out of trouble as long as the business can stabilise. Unfortunately with it being a commodity-exposed business, we have no idea what the next year holds for the company.

[roddiemac2] 01/12/2021 09:41

Porsche

Some truth in what you say ( ad nauseam ). The S&P has had a great run. That is history.

[bouleversee] 30/11/2021 14:28

Thanks,Illis. How recent was that interview? Do I gather you are going to sit on your hands for the moment?

[professor john koestler] 30/11/2021 11:28

bouleversee

Sorry to hear about that. AZN are falling because investors are seeing falling revenue for its drugs versus its vaccines - I'm guessing. Nobody can get into hospital to have anything else done other than COVID treatment and finances for these services and operations in the future may become stretched.

With regards to your holding it is never too late to sell IMO. You know the business much better than I do and I think one needs to settle on an opinion as to whether or not a rights issue/placing to bolster finances is coming. If you believe it is then it may be prudent to sell some holding as a means to buying in post dilution if you haven't got resources from elsewhere to protect your position. Only you and your advisors can make that call but it is something I would be considering if I was in your position.

This thing could bounce back after you have sold some tranches and you will no doubt kick yourself if this happens but I doubt the share price will recover quickly - it will recover over time - giving you much opportunity to build a position again on knowledge and facts rather than trying to maintain your net-worth on many open-ended questions.

The other thing to remember is if you sell you could diversify into other stocks that have been on the receiving end of negative economic issues and although they may not have fallen as much as this you could benefit from recovery in those. As Buffett would say "you don't have to make your money back the way you lost it" and more often than not it doesn't generally work relying on this method anyway.

Thoughts? Anyone else????

IMO & DYOR.

[roddiemac2] 29/11/2021 20:59

Bottomfisher

Do you know how many shares Downing held, and when they sold ?

Schroders still show as a holder of just under 10%

[bouleversee] 29/11/2021 20:15

Much worse than rather depressing. My family are losing an awful lot of money between us all. Too late to sell now. I hope Roddy and Illis can come up with some words of comfort. Very strange things happening to share prices at the moment. WH Smith up 5.53% today and FSJ continues its downward trek, as does AZN. I should have thought the latter would be going up. I wonder who FSJ use for their PR.

[bottomfisher] 29/11/2021 19:19

Rosemary Banyard, manager of Downing's Unique Opportunities Fund, explains why she exited James Fisher in the fund's latest fact sheet.

"The individual issue concerned marine services company James Fisher, whose shares fell 40%1 in the month on a profit warning, contributing 0.81% to the total decline. Coming only six weeks after the previous downgrades, the warning was ample evidence of a lack of visibility across a wide range of activities. Capital allocation errors by previous management have come home to roost, and existing management has been slow to react. The words “continues to trade within its banking covenants” may have been designed to give comfort, but did the opposite. The painful decision was taken to exit the holding, and amongst our reasons to sell, it falls firmly into the category of “made a mistake”. Lessons will be learned."

She is a well respected fund manager having worked closely with Schroders' Andy Brough for a long time. Found her comments about the new management being "slow to react" rather depressing.

[xxxxxy] 26/11/2021 15:19

Difficult decision. Leave till Monday. See how crazy the EUSSR goes over weekend.Mad price, because of mad politics.But just how mad?

[xxxxxy] 23/11/2021 09:21

Adolf in Austria and the EUSSR have certainly not helped.

[xxxxxy] 23/11/2021 09:20

Specimen still murky. But so is the World background.Come and look at 350 ish interested.

[leedslad001] 22/11/2021 16:06

Wouldn't like to guess the bottom here

[wunderbar] 22/11/2021 16:00

I bought in today @ 370p. Market cap now only £187m. Underlying operating profit for 2021 expected to be between £27m and £32m. General broker consensus forecast EPS of 38.2p. The valuation looks cheap to me but market volatility making it difficult to call the floor. Can FSJ fall further? Of course it could - but as they say: you gotta be in it to win it. No risk, no reward.

I guess the key question is, are Fisher’s problems merely short term or terminal? I certainly wouldn’t call this a conviction buy but it does look oversold at these levels. YTD shareprice is down 59% and over 80% down from its peak of c.2200p just 2.5 years ago. On day of profit warning (25 Oct) the stock fell 35% (to close at 507p), less than a month later it's fallen another 27% on no further news. Given the magnitude of these falls you’d think the market was pricing in Armageddon! This company has been around 174 years and been a reliable performer for shareholders since listing 25 years ago (up until Covid-19 struck). It’s what I’d call a boring, unglamorous stock, the kind I like - one which has market leading positions in niche sectors. I don’t tend to trade stocks so I’ll hold onto this one for at least a year and review thereafter. Ultimately, I’m looking to double my money at this level.

On a final note, just 2 days after FSJ issued profit warning, broker Peel Hunt set a target of 1150p. Make of that what you will.

[illiswilgig] 14/11/2021 08:23

Meee-owwwww