Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[shinnas] 11/11/2021 14:16

Recovering unwell this morning:-)

[our haven] 10/11/2021 11:20

Recovering well this morning:-)

[illiswilgig] 04/11/2021 19:43

3800 - 'rats leaving a sinking ship'

Yes, That had occured to me as well. Normally such rats are performing a service - in that it's cheaper than redundancy. If that is the case then I guess the silver-lining is that they have enough work to replace the 'rats',

cheers

[illiswilgig] 04/11/2021 19:38

Hi Roddie,

good to hear from you.

Yes, I also have a sad habit of browsing the JF vacancies page. The UK situation certainly looks healthy.

It's one of the things that reassured me enough to snap up a few more shares recently. Only a few though.

It strikes me that its only UK vacancies? Perhaps there are corners of the globe that are not (yet) so healthy? Which may be behind the comment about a shift in markets?

cheers

Illis

[3800] 04/11/2021 19:28

some evidence of where there is future growth potential?
Or rats leaving a sinking ship?

[roddiemac2] 04/11/2021 19:11

Hello illis,

There are currently 44 vacancies for staff in the various companies. More than half of these are shared between Fendercare ( having the most vacancies ), JFD, JFN and EDS: some evidence of where there is future growth potential?

[illiswilgig] 02/11/2021 07:33

Disposal announced -

- sale of James Fisher Testing Services ("JFTS") from its Marine Support division for £5.7 million to Phenna Group.

JFTS operates a number of materials testing laboratories based in Warrington, Harlow and Portlaise, Ireland, in addition to maintaining a team of field-based technicians and engineers delivering site-specific services to the construction industry.

The sale of JFTS is consistent with James Fisher's strategy of delivering sustainable, profitable growth through market leading niche businesses in the marine, energy and defence markets.-

......that looks good to me, non-core in the construction industry, probably fetched a better price than currently depressed marine assets.

cheers

[cassini] 02/11/2021 01:36

CEO bought £100k worth today at 419p.

[our haven] 01/11/2021 08:15

Topped up Friday at 399 as it has to be towards the bottom IMO.

[bouleversee] 29/10/2021 12:31

1tx -

I also have a small holding in Carrs, inherited from my husband's ISA. I see the current share price is the same as it was 5 years ago. I have to confess that I haven't followed it much (too many holdings to keep track of) so thanks for supplying further details. Oil support engineering is likely to decline but presumably the other areas could be expanded.

[xxxxxy] 29/10/2021 11:58

Bucket with holes.Can be repaired.Hopefully.

[1tx] 29/10/2021 11:54

Am I correct in thinking that the heart of the problem is the debt fuelled expansion into areas that have "failed to succeed",viz dive support ships,resulting in £80m+ write offs,rather than difficulties in established business that are the cause of the problem,although they maybe suffering order delays that in normal circumstances could have been met more easily,at least without finance problems.I note most of the write offs are intangibles but these intangibles have been paid for by loans I assume.I note that the company is still advertising many jobs which indicates business is normal in many areas.This does not help shareholders of course if the lost money has to be replaced to pay the debts,by raising new equity.I note the actual net profits earned in recent years are rather less than the "normalised" profits.I have an interest in another Cumbrian business Carr's best known for agriculure business but about a third of its business is in Nuclear,Wind & oil support engineering;so far business has been "lumpy" but seemingly improving according to most recent updates.

[elsa7878] 29/10/2021 10:31

Illiswilgig

Thanks. I was just about to do the calculations myself. Some wiggle room but can't afford any more mishaps.

[buywell3] 28/10/2021 22:20

VOL rising



Some holder/s want out imo

[illiswilgig] 28/10/2021 21:22

Elsa,

thank your for your informative posts - and kind thoughts.

There is a £2m bad debt due to a financially distressed customer

There is also a £2m project payment being negotiated - which should have concluded in 2021 but will not now conclude until 2022. It may be that this gets paid in full but late. Or not.

Worst case that's £4m in exceptionals to subtract from the £27-£32m underlying operating profit.

I can't argue with you over the debt. It's concerned me ever since they bought the dive support boats and attempted the failed Saudi acquisition in 2019 prior to the new management arriving.

Sadly I didn't take action on my gut feeling. Learning lesson. Expensive one.

Covenant test was 2.9x versus 3.75x ceiling at the H1. Covenant reduces to 3.5x at FY, ebitda will be much lower and debt is rising. Uncomfortable.

Underlying debt was 178.7m at H1 (excluding lease obligations which is the test). In Q3 'headroom' decreased by £17m to £100m so I'd assume that underlying debt has risen to £195.7m. I estimate ebitda to be in the range £64m - £69m by adding back depreciation and amortisation to the underlying profit resulting in the debt Covenant ceiling at £224m .

If I've got my figures right and if Q4 runs like Q3 they will just squeak through - but they need nothing else to go wrong in the next 2 months. An extra million or two in ebitda would make all the difference - at the upper end of their expected result range there is no problem. Which is why the bad debt and project milestone wrangling were brought to our attention I expect. I feel its safe to say that the CFO will be giving this his full attention.

FWIW I think they will succeed. But I have a tendency to be too optimistic.

Hunting update expects breakeven result. Like Fisher they are seeing the opex recovery delayed and capex spending nowhere yet. Tekmar also updated the same. They expect this to change in 2022 which aligns with Fishers outlook. Unlike Fisher Hunting are sitting on a pile of cash and are still paying a dividend - so their share price has not collapsed.

cheers

Illiswilgig

[elsa7878] 28/10/2021 20:44

Hard to blame the current management for the most part. The Paladin and Swordfish purchases have cost them in the region of £40 million from what I gather in purchase price, refurb and interest payments and the bounce back in business generally is considerably weaker than anticipated. I bought in on that basis that the bounce in oil prices would lead to increased industry capex. Clearly we were all wrong. I'm assuming that they too are surprised. I'm not sure about the CEO but the Chairman and CFO have a good history....I hope it pans out. Tempted to buy a few as I got out with just a few scratches.....but the debt scares me.

Couldn't quite work out from the RNS. Are there 2 x £2 million bad debts?

[bouleversee] 28/10/2021 19:42

elsa78/78 -

Many thanks for sharing all that, depressed though it has made me feel. In the short term, one would expect there to be a demand for their services - we still need oil -
but in the long term that will be very peripheral. I know FSJ are into servicing offshore windmill sites but that may be small beer in the grand scheme of things. Time will tell but the silence from the company as to how to adapt to such changing circumstances is deafening.

[xxxxxy] 28/10/2021 17:21

Specimen is a bit cloudy. Staying on sidelines till know what it is.

[bossonmad] 28/10/2021 16:27

Bottoming out

[bouleversee] 28/10/2021 15:43

I can't help thinking that this drop has been overdone and it is only the traders and algorithms which have driven it. Yes, there are problems and yes, the board have not handled the situation very well, but I can't see from the figures that the problems are such that the reduction in capital value to this extent is justified. If the board gets off its backside, doesn't panic and does something positive to rescue the situation, I should have thought a bounce back was on the cards. I'd like to know a lot more (actually we know almost nothing) about the bad debts etc. Sounds as though there have been some rather sloppy business deals. What is the chairman doing? I hope the family can bring some expertise and pressure to bear.

[bad robot] 28/10/2021 15:04

This is depreciating so quick it could go double digits. Thank you almighty for telling me to cut this pig with only a 4.5% loss.

BR
IN BR WE TRUST
RED MERCURY CREW

[rivaldo] 28/10/2021 14:53

Wow. FSJ and IGR were two core parts of my portfolio in times gone by. They both looked like "forever" stocks with good management, solid prospects, ambitious targets etc. Which is why they were both eventually - and deservedly at the time - trading on generous multiples.

I sold long ago, but look at them now....hard to credit. Both will surely bounce and bounce hard at some point, but it's a question of timing and whether there'll be any further warnings. FSJ in particular seem to have hit a perfect storm where everything possible has gone wrong. Good luck to all you long-termers (roddiemac, bouleversee, ils etc).