Firestone Diamonds Share Discussion Threads

[astjgroom] 28/8/2019 22:20

That's a big hole. How come there's no diamonds in it

[davethehorse] 28/8/2019 15:54

Yes 2nd half should be better and note over 5m shares traded today.

[superg1] 28/8/2019 15:08

Dave

It is what it is, Big stones are eluding them and hence revenue dropping. The share price is following exactly what the mining results in recent months are.

I note they say H2 they are moving to higher grades in the satellite pipe so the performance is now over the that pipe and a hope for bigger, better stones.

[davethehorse] 28/8/2019 09:55

The company say that while the 100 carat stones are the headline makers stones in the 10 to 60 carat range are their biggest source of income. I agree to get the share price moving big stones should have an RNS but in the past it hasn't always had much effect, as per the likes of LUC

[andy] 28/8/2019 08:56

superg1,



"I would argue that funding such stones is more price sensitive that ever with an RNS needed."

---


I totally agree, and if they are not doing so it sends a very negative message, IMHO.

[abtwo] 28/8/2019 08:53

One of the "Latest Pictures" on FDI's website shows how important it is they keep to their waste mining/removal schedule as the pit is much deeper than it was in Nov 2018!

[superg1] 28/8/2019 08:52

Dave

That latest photo is of a low value yellow diamond not a type Isa

Did they announce that they were stopping announcing the finds of large valuable diamonds? That would be odd as they live and die on such diamonds 80% of their revenue comes form the quality stones. Letseng is the lowest CPHT diamond mine in the world. If the big stones stop coming up it's over.

I would argue that finding such stones is more price sensitive than ever with an RNS needed.

8th May

Recovered two diamonds greater than 100 carats during the Period.

Sold eight diamonds for more than US$ 1.0 million each, generating revenue of US$ 27.2 million during the Period. That was including the pink stone.

Half year

Recovered three diamonds greater than 100 carats during the period,

So they found 1 in Q2.

None of them have been called high quality or types IIa. They did say in the half year update 2 found in July 100 carat plus but still not mention as high quality, then you have that August picture which is an undesirable weak yellow colour.

So it seems to me they have a run of fewer finds and lower quality.

[davethehorse] 27/8/2019 19:47

GEMD stopped announcing stones over 100 carat via RNS last year, you need to regularly check their website news for stone finds. They have been finding approx 2 big ones a month for the last few months, the latest a few days ago, see linkhttps://www.gemdiamonds.com/

[superg1] 27/8/2019 10:25

Dave

I thought I'd just have a look and imo your post seems to be bad advice based on GEMD history.

As said GEMD need to find big quality stones. It seems (quite alarmingly) that they have not found any this year so far.

Type IIa are the money earners for GEMD and without them they are in trouble. The pink diamond was a surprise.

Hence when they find decent sized type IIa they are announced via regulatory RNS as they are material to GEMDs performance.

In the H1 update they said

Recovered three diamonds greater than 100 carats during the Period, with an additional two diamonds greater than 100 carats recovered in July.

There has been no individual news for any of those finds and they don't mention type IIa either, which imo means they are poor quality stones.


Revenue lags behind finds, so in the coming months they have imo little of quality to sell so far which will impact H2.

So in short, not good news and definitely not a buy imo, as it stands.

[superg1] 27/8/2019 10:08

Dave

I looked at all the Lesotho mines.

Gemd lives and dies on turning up big stones or not. They have the highest grade but also the lowest CPHT.

I think I had it as 10-15 big quality stones needed to be a good year.

[davethehorse] 23/8/2019 12:41

Have a peak at GEMD, IMO they should be in a great position to benefit, it will be a survival of the fittest and they have no debt, are generating cash and have a low PE.

[superg1] 23/8/2019 12:15

I get a punt Jack no problem there but it is not one to throw cash at right now.

In theory like all market ups and downs this slow motion event created by De Beers will clear through at some point imo.

[jack jebb] 23/8/2019 11:01

I hear all of that, and totally recognise the risks here. Its just an option punt for me, and as you rightly say, any diamond miner still in business for when and if it turns around, will be well set for decent gains.

[superg1] 23/8/2019 09:25

22nd August

Polished inventory levels starting to decline as manufacturers cut production and rough buying. Small Aug. sight as De Beers lets sightholders reject 50% of goods. Alrosa slashes 2019 sales forecast from 38M cts. to 33M cts. after 2Q revenue -21% to $859M, profit -47% to $200M. Weak China demand and tight profit margins still a concern. Buyers very selective during downturn. Strong jewelry sales at Macy’s and J.C. Penney highlight discounting and promotional retail environment. Belgian, Indian and Israeli trade bodies call to postpone Hong Kong show. Ian Rowe replaces Dorothée Gizenga as executive director of Diamond Development Initiative. Sean Kell appointed Blue Nile CEO.

Fancies: Fancy shapes soft, reflecting slowdown in overall demand. 3 to 8 ct., I-K, VS-SI1 moving better than rounds as dealers and consumers shift to lower price points. Well-known brands are paying highest prices, as are buyers with specific requests. Ovals for fashion jewelry moving well, especially 1.50 and 2 ct., G-H, VS and H-K, SI2. Marquises and Princesses weak despite reduced manufacturing. US sustaining market for commercial-quality, medium-priced fancies under 1 ct. Chinese consumers seeking fancy shapes at better prices. Off-make, poorly cut fancies illiquid and hard to sell, even at very deep discounts.

United States: Weak polished market putting stress on suppliers. Steady demand for 1 to 2.75 ct., G-H, SI-I1 goods. Large stones above 3 ct. slow. Dealers looking for unique items, such as unusual fancy shapes, mirroring consumer requests for personalized pieces. Jewelers assessing requirements for the holiday season.

Belgium: Dealers gradually returning from vacation. Trading expected to remain subdued until the beginning of September. Fewer fresh goods available, as manufacturing has declined. Rough market slow during De Beers sight week.

Israel: Trading quiet with the Israel Diamond Exchange closed until August 25. Dealers concerned about upcoming Hong Kong show.

India: Slight improvement, with more US and Israeli buyers looking for bargains in Mumbai. Demand has narrowed to specific categories. Overseas jewelers not yet placing large inventory orders. Stable demand for 1 ct., G-J, SI-I1 goods for US engagement ring market. Weakening rupee and stricter customs controls weighing on sentiment. Polished production reduced, with shift to lower-cost items.

Hong Kong: Wholesale and retail sectors slow, although political unrest has calmed slightly. Luxury sales down 4% to 11% due to demonstrations but could slide 10% to 60% if disruptions continue to year-end, according to analysts at Cowan and Company. Low expectations for September show.Melee and parcel goods selling better than single stones. Jewelers in mainland China pushing summer promotions to boost turnover.

[superg1] 23/8/2019 09:22

Jack

I keep a close eye on FDI.

I called it a buy at 17p having been tracking PRG (warning PRG was a scam) and therefore researched the feasibility studies of the various Lesotho mines.

At 55p I had FDI as a sell as much was priced in pre start of the mine and the diamond market wasn't looking that great.

De Beers as you know have created this problem and various diamond related business have gone bust.

I would expect in the fullness of time for the rot to clear through and then a reset of the market. If FDI are still around they will be well set for that.

As in all things newcomers chase the hot sectors.

Graphite hype and 50+ junior players appeared in a market where they were never going to be able to get a share of the market.

Lithium same issue and it's impacting the majors now with the various companies that scrambled to produce Lithium.

Diamonds have been a no no for a few years now so the scramble isn't there.


FDI have developed a big mine and ran into a bad diamond market. One part of the FDI head-scratcher for me was the lack of big diamonds early on which made me sceptical about the claims of finding, but breaking big diamonds in the test mining.

So FDI one to watch but based on the diamond market. FDI deserve a few big stones for all their work and hopefully some of higher valued fancy coloured ones.

[jack jebb] 19/8/2019 11:11

One could equally say the selling since it suddenly rose 30odd % is minimal.

[davethehorse] 19/8/2019 09:08

The buying has dried up it seems

[andy] 16/8/2019 11:39

mdalos,


I would expect a likely bidder to be Pacific Road, because they have board representation, and already hold a large chunk of the debt, so they have less to lose!


I cannot see an outside bidder coming in that will want to take on the debt, can you?

[andy] 15/8/2019 00:33

Jack,


That would not surprise me!


I think many of us think FDI will be taken private.

[jack jebb] 14/8/2019 23:32

What do you base that statement on?

Apart from me and a couple of others, I see little recent interest in this share, and theres not much elsewhere too. Where do you think the millions of shares will come from?
The recent shareholder list, after a while, showed that the 2 major shareholders havnt sold a single share.

Its just as possible that the share started to rise as one of them may be preparing an opportunistic lowball bid for the whole company.

[davethehorse] 14/8/2019 18:34

Think there are potentially several million to be dumped on the market unless it goes up further in the next few days, they were ramped up for shortermers IMO

[jack jebb] 14/8/2019 11:16

Not sure there's anything to talk about, is there?