Thanks for the summary. My day job prevented me from joining this morning but its high up my to-do list for this evening |
No. Anyone's guess. |
PS. Thanks for post - good one - Cheers! |
'relatively short time' Any clues on how long that will be? |
Managed to join the investor presentation for some of the questions that were posted. Summary of answers below. Please correct me if you were also on the call, and I've made any errors.Customer number split is 60/40 corporate to HNWI. Corporates transact daily and monthly with HWNIs a couple of times a year. However, it's the introducer network that is the growth focus.No divi. Cash will be used to grow company. No dilution shares needed.Net cash £600k after £2m loan paid back next year.Confident of meeting 2025 forecasts.100m revenue target. Confident this can be achieved in relatively short time scale and they grow products and geographically. |
Hi Bisho
Yes, I heard those comments and they were encouraging but obviously only 2 weeks. Those 2 weeks could have also been great and say 15% better than last year, though market forecasts are for 23% growth. I was more swayed by the CFO being noncommittal on the market forecasts as I said above.
I might obviously be wrong and might have been too cautious, but there you go. As I've said before, even if they only get 50% of the way to their £100m target then the share price is a bargain here, but I feel that there is more risk in it now than before the recent news, and particularly more risk on a 6/9/12 month basis.
This isn't a sell and never look at the company again. Just a risk based decision.
Adam |
Thanks for the post, Adam.
It sounds like you have watched the recent Vox Markets interview, so I'm curious to know what you think of the CEO & CFO's comments that January 25 has already seen new records being set in terms of payments/transactions made?
The growth figures for Q4 were disappointing, but it seems that they are more than back on track now. |
Good post, Adam. Maybe more clarity will be provided at next weeks investor event. |
 Given I've been bullish on FIN, I thought I should post that I've sold after the TU this week.
2024 figures were underwhelming resulting from the Q4 miss and my initial reaction was that the share price would therefore be volatile in 2025 and not advance as much as I previously thought when I was expecting the results to be a lot better.
The trigger to move from that view to selling though was the CFOs comments on the VOX interview when she said that she couldnt confirm the market forecasts for growth as yet until they were operational in different markets. That comment puts downgraded figures (from £14.1m t/o and 3.1p EPS) for FY25 on the table as a distinct possibility (still growing but possible not as much) whereas 3-4 days ago I was thinking that we'd have much better growth even beyond those market forecasts.
I still think FIN is a good company, but I could see the price stuck mainly trading between 30p and 40p this year. Q4 this year should record decent growth on Q4 2024 but the Jan 2026 TU is the probably the first time when there might be confidence of >3p EPS, but equally its possible that we could have 2025 EPS of 2.5p if the company guide Shore Cap lower. If that Jan 2026 confirms >3p EPS, I could see the potential for moving beyond that trading range and longer-term I think there's a the potential for moving well beyond that level.
At the moment though, we dont have much evidence that the CEOs £100m revenue target, or even half that is credible, and *I think* there's the possibility that we see a 30p share price this year (or maybe a bit below briefly) at which point I'll become a buyer again, assuming current market expectations are confirmed.
All the best for holders!
Adam
Adam |
There's no need for travel agents either. We can do it on the internet, but people use them! Again, this was discussed on the call. Their customer base are wealthy individuals who want a premium 121 bespoke service with almost immediate transfers. 1000+ customers seem happy to pay for it. |
Well, yes, I agree with you there. On reflection, it was a poorly worded RNS. They could have added extra commentary about Q4. |
Popeetc. H1 of each year is always lower than H2. I simply think revenue growth has slowed to a crawl. There is no real need for FIN. I bank my business with Revolut and they do everything that FIN does.
Strange that they did not explain these explanations in the accounts. Don’t you think. Where they are checked and approved as being correct. |
This has already been explained in detail. It was a timing issue. There is nothing to suggest at this stage that there are fundamental issues slowing their growth. Only the H1 update will confirm that one way or the other. I shared a very clear explanation yesterday.Again, I find your presence here very odd. You repeatedly post links from news items 10 plus years ago, raise the same points over and over again, and ignore any facts that challenge or disprove your opinions. Were you sacked by them? |
The concerning data is as follows….
H1 24 revenue was $5.1m as compared to $3.6m H1 23. So $1.5m higher.
H2 24 revenue was $6.2m as compared to $5.3m H2 23. So only $900k higher.
So the rate of exceeding the year before has slowed down to a crawl.
Looking at the last three halves of revenue…
H2 23 $5.3m
H1 24 $5.1m
H2 24 $6.2m
So revenue has risen by only $900k in the last 18 months. That is only 11% per annum. Just above inflation. That is why the company is overvalued. |
Pope, thanks, I'm a novice investor so am always grateful for information I don't possess |
Great! So what does ST say? |
ST in IC latest |
There's a wealth of information out they pal that isn't on an RNS. You heard of Google? |
It's discussed on the Vox interview available on YouTube. I'm repeating what the CEO and the CFO of the company actually said. If you don't think it counts as it's not in an RNS, then that's up to you. Many others will be interested in the explanation and context of why H2 was slower compared to 2023. |
Popeofchill. Can you refer me to the RNS that says 2025 has already been record levels of business? Thanks. If it is not on an RNS then clearly it does not count. |
They had a very slow month in Q4. Budget related possibly or just coincidental. They say that transaction timing is often affected by news and economic events. 2025 has already seen record transaction days and weeks, so I really don't think there are any issues here. I have a feeling that those who sold today will look very silly in 6 weeks. |
Hi Alex, I've not seen the interview yet but I hope you're right, thanks for the info, but I'm still not convinced the share price will be going anywhere for several months |
This was addressed in the Vox interview. It's just a timing issue. |
What concerns me more is the very significant slowing of growth in H2. I think that'd whay has caused to drop 15% today and I don't see it bouncing back until the company provides proof or a reacceleration in growth. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I do regret not taking some money off the table yesterday when the share price was touching 44p |
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