Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[sharetips] 24/9/2020 19:20

Tipped in cityconfidential this month!
Www.cityconfidential.co.uk

[chrisb1103] 22/9/2020 15:05

Wives getting stuck in :)
And me. Cheap valuation and a defensive well established business
Debt down by 25% this year to 26.5m GBP good news too

[3800] 21/9/2020 18:22

thanks for that jpjp I would have missed it if you had not drawn it to our attention

[spaceparallax] 21/9/2020 10:54

As we know, the FIF management have demonstrated sound performance over recent years. I'm confident that they'll be doing everything possible to deal with this; more importantly, they're performing very well despite the impact of that matter.

[jpjp100] 21/9/2020 10:10

overpaid for ultrapharm it appears

by quite a chunk: £7.5m

Note 4 in the accouts

"There has been an impairment of the goodwill relating to the Ultrapharm acquisition, which based on current performance was deemed to be overvalued, Note 8 provides further detail."

Note 8

"An impairment charge has been booked against the Ultrapharm cash generating units. The business has proven more immature than expected and additional resource has been invested into both the UK and Polish businesses. We face commercial issues (in part relating to a small warranty claim) now exacerbated by Covid-19 which have adversely affected cashflows and hence valuation. We believe that the Gluten Free sector remains attractive and that performance will meet our expectations over time. The conclusion is that, based on current performance, the business is overvalued. The strategic forecast revenues and profits have been sensitised and a downside forecast has been considered giving reduced cashflow assumptions, which when compared to the carrying value of assets has indicated an impairment is necessary. A non-cash impairment of £7.5 million has been recognised in the current year's financial results. The downside forecast has been used as a basis for calculating the impairment charge. Revenue in this forecast is expected to grow over the next three years at an annual growth rate of 10%. Each 1% reduction in the annual growth rate over the three year period, compared to forecast, would have an impact of £260,000 on the impairment charge."

Which given that the total purchase price was up to £21m (£17m on completion and then up to £3m in instalments to 30 June 21 and a possible final incentive £1m, is quite a whack.

Hope that FIF can cancel any of the remaining instalments and the incentive.

But still £7.5m on £21m is a big overpayment and still leaves £4m goodwill associated.

I am disappointed that the Board's due diligence didn't pick this up.

[spaceparallax] 21/9/2020 10:02

Very impressive results in these difficult times - a well run company with sensible debt levels.

[sev22] 28/8/2020 18:46

According to Finsbury's Investor Relations page on their web-site the preliminary results are going to be announced on Monday the 21st September.

[sev22] 19/8/2020 12:10

Finsbury's preliminary results were released on the 16th of September last year so only four weeks away. Below is a link to an article from Investors Chronicle dated 21st of April which reinforces how cheap their shares remain.

[sev22] 20/7/2020 17:22

Those two substantial trades today accounted for 2.5% of the issued share capital.

A Buyer or a Seller?

Based on last week's trading update, which I thought was quite resilient despite the lockdown, I think they were both buys.

[sev22] 20/7/2020 10:17

It looks like someone has just purchased almost 1.5% of the shares in issue.

[essentialinvestor] 15/7/2020 12:50

space, ultimately earnings drive the price. Yes there may be long timeframes
where fundamentals may be out of sync with a share price.
At £1 a share the rating arguably asked a lot, it looks more reasonably priced atm.
That's just on a rudimentary intial look.

[spaceparallax] 15/7/2020 12:42

FIF have long been a very well managed business, willing to invest in systems that yield benefits over an extended period.

Sadly, this size of business remains subject to the vagaries of our modern share marketplace that focusses upon opportunities to make money from artificially moving the share price up and down on the back of small trades rather than relating the share price to fundamentals.

As usual the only long term winners are those who take a commission from the trades/bets.

[essentialinvestor] 15/7/2020 11:36

Think this is worth a watchlist inclusion.

Need to read back a few reports as have never held these, is there a particular reason why they have been able to reduce net debt?.

[sphere25] 15/7/2020 11:32

Doctor, call it. Time 11:27.

Stock still in Flatline City - that's a staggering 3.5 months now. The update shows a resilient performance and very encouraging to see net debt falling in this tumultuous period.

The interims show net debt falling to from £36.1m to £32.6m and now a further fall to £27m. Encouraging overall trend on sales too with June now down to only 15% of prior year and some cautious optimism of a continuing positive trend.

Furthermore, no need for support from the banks or government. How many businesses can say that?

Positive on the whole but the stock remains stuck. I got stopped out when the market looked like plungeville so tightened stops but will be watching for bigger buying and hopefully a break higher at some point if the market does see cause for more optimism on a forward basis.

All imo

DYOR

[spaceparallax] 15/7/2020 09:58

Very solid given the recent global problems.

[farrugia] 15/7/2020 09:37

bought some more here - seems under the radar?

[scepticalinvestor] 02/7/2020 08:16

Glad I haven't invested in here yet - constant drop seems very unfounded but presents an excellent opp

[sev22] 30/6/2020 19:01

Their pre-close trading statement was released on Monday the 15th of July last year, so assuming they stick to the same timetable it should be around the 13th.

[scepticalinvestor] 30/6/2020 13:17

This is on my watchlist - def will come good

[sphere25] 30/6/2020 12:20

It has hit my stop yes - very disappointing one.

It's not like it has tanked big but recent market selling has caused a fair few of my stops to be hit (tightened them up to protect against downside plunges). That's just the nature of the beast. We have had an amazing run up with some bonkers moves and inevitably you have to give abit back at times.

This one looked promising a few times but despite all the buying, unbelievably stubborn sellers. I can understand having more stubborn sellers now in wider stocks as valuations have got more stretched but this one didn't even rally off the lows in joining the wider market euphoria.

I'll keep an eye on it. Clearly looks like a trading update is required to inject some life here. They issued a pre-close statement in July of last year and seen as the last update was a while back at the back end of March, you'd expect one at some point soon (even if the results are delayed as per most).

Better add that the majority of positions have stops. Mostly trade short term and if the stop is hit, that's that. Even though alot have worked with bullish markets, they don't all work and even though FIF is a small loss, it's still a disappointing one.

[buywell3] 23/6/2020 06:06

The problem as buywell sees it are the number of Institutions holding this share

buywell believes in the current state of an overbought general market due to stimulus measures here and the USA

Plenty of them would no doubt like to sell and go into cash

But they can't without hurting the share price badly

Not a nice position to be trapped in IMO

[value viper] 18/6/2020 19:05

Clearly still a sellerI wonder if Sphere has sold out

[itsnotmeitsy0u] 18/6/2020 16:39

just bought in here at 61p oddsubstantial upside from here imo