Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[jpjp100] 26/3/2012 07:22

OK, so generally good numbers and cautiously optimistic outlook

no mention of divi

I as hoping net debt versus year end would have been decreased so, whilst the like for like debt position is better, I am a touch disappointed

[jpjp100] 26/3/2012 07:21

OK, so generally good numbers and cautiously optimistic outlook

no mention of divi

I as hoping net debt versus year end would have been decreased so, whilst the like for like debt position is better, I am a touch disappointed

[jpjp100] 26/3/2012 07:21

OK, so generally good numbers and cautiously optimistic outlook

no mention of divi

I as hoping net debt versus year end would have been decreased so, whilst the like for like debt position is better, I am a touch disappointed

[jpjp100] 26/3/2012 07:21

OK, so generally good numbers and cautiously optimistic outlook

no mention of divi

I as hoping net debt versus year end would have been decreased so, whilst the like for like debt position is better, I am a touch disappointed

[jpjp100] 23/3/2012 10:07

warburtons is a great company

I have had dealings with one of the non execs in his role as CEO elsewhere - very impressive and talks highly of the top team at Warburtons

It is, afaik, privately held

[markt] 22/3/2012 13:40

BTW
...anyone know who owns Warburtons ?

or are they independant...website says family business....so maybe privately owned ?

look very big in bread, rolls,
and big range of products including fruit loaves, pitta bread, crumpets, potato cakes, brioche, raisin swirls, gluten free, teacakes etc...some of which compete with FIF products
(but looks like they don't offer cake products...FIFs main production)

and they export to Europe

[aleman] 22/3/2012 11:05

Climbing back above the shorter moving averages will is a pretty positive indicator - if it's still there after Monday!

[aleman] 21/3/2012 11:06

Don't forget news on the dividend! (Even if it is only that they intend to pay a final.)

[jpjp100] 21/3/2012 09:05

no probs here Aleman

I am quite looking forward to reading the results on Monday, particularly

- debt
- EPS
- outlook
- details of options to Directors
- mention of appetite for acquisitions
- Europe JV sales

[aleman] 20/3/2012 23:42

jpjp100 - I'm happy that it's a coinicidence. Sorry for any offence or embarrassment caused to you or PJ 1.


SR - They've already told us they coped with difficult conditions in H1. Slightly lower margin on a strong sales increase (that will ease in H2) so, crucially, still trading in line. From the last update:

The high first half growth, delivered through both volume and price rises, complemented the Group's efficiency initiatives to largely offset year on year commodity inflation, although the operating margin percentage was slightly lower than prior year as a consequence.

Despite these difficult consumer and inflationary conditions, the Group continues to see growth opportunities within its businesses and, after the first half, is trading in line with expectations.

The recession has exposed that PFD has been cut to the bone after being bought out and relisted by private equity and years of underinvestment and high debt has left it unable to pass on input costs through the added value route of new product development.

FIF turnover is up 16% thanks to new products, compared to ABF's 4%, so it may have a bit more wiggle room in dropping unprofitable lines and is unlikely to launch new products with weak margins. I don't think we are under much illusion that supermarkets will squeeze you on price if you don't innovate to offer the customer something extra for a higher price.

As results are in line, the shares will turn on the outlook statement. Commodities prices have crept up slghtly after recent falls, but not to levels that FIF hasn't already coped with in the past. The Euro exchange rate could be a bit of a drag, though.

[sir rational] 20/3/2012 20:06

Look at latest PFD and ABF results - ingredients, bread, input costs, pricing pressure from retail multiples?

[jpjp100] 20/3/2012 20:01

I am only one person too and I am not PJ 1 nor is PJ 1 me

[s34icknote] 20/3/2012 17:20

A sell 250 k at 27 p !

[pj 1] 20/3/2012 16:07

Lucky? You make your own ''luck'' so well done!!

[aleman] 20/3/2012 15:55

Ok. Just coincidence, then. Hope you are enjoying your first year! I love investing - but I've been very lucky.

[boffster] 20/3/2012 15:39

I reckon he's Peter Jones

[pj 1] 20/3/2012 15:36

Ale, nothing to do with me, I only started last year really. So , just the one person, with x2 persons debts lol

[aleman] 20/3/2012 15:29

Are you one person or two? :-)

[jpjp100] 20/3/2012 15:20

hello

(waves)

[boffster] 20/3/2012 14:25

I think the alias jpjp100 is still active, he only posted 2 days ago

[aleman] 20/3/2012 13:01

Try comparing it against Northern Foods, which got taken over on a p/e of 12. I did that on one of the older threads. NFDS had similar issues to FIF but it's value was seen by an aquirer when the market didn't value it properly. I reckon the management at FIF is much better.


The p/e is very low due to lingering debt fears yet free cashflow has been making mincemeat of the debt for 4 years. FCF has been creeping up and could be £6m (at least on an underlying basis) this year after £5.5m last year. The market cap is a ludicrous multiple of FCF and that is also reflected in the ridiculous p/e. The shares should be more like 80-90p, based on cash generation, to give a p/e of 10-11, which is reasonable for a company that has stronger cashflow than some other foodies and should increase earnings by 10% for a few years until the next acquisition(s), after cruising through the recession and some volatile commodity markets largely unscathed following some unfortunately timed acquisitions. The share price prior to the recession wasn't so far off the mark but investors have panicked after they cut the dividend to concentrate on debt reduction and continued to get this one very wrong since (although now gradually waking up) allowing me to build up a large stake, I'm pleased to say.

EDIT - there are some comparisons against RGD and NFDS are on the old thread around 1340 onwards. THere was a poster called jpjp100 around then. Anything to do with you, PJ 1? Seems rather a coincidence.

[pj 1] 20/3/2012 12:33

Thanks for the info. Hard nto get a reasonable company to compare against. Whilst the P/E is very low, low PEG, I cant help wonder if the update was already mainly in the price. What makes you think differently? Its hard to see eps increasing by more than 10% at the mo year on year, on the other hand, keep wondering if I'm missing something. Sat on the fence at the mo..........

[aleman] 20/3/2012 12:28

I considered some more when they dipped below 28p. I'm quite overweight in these and have no spare cash but was considering selling something at that price. It's kind of the stockmarket to continue to offer them so low after the trading updates tell us all is well. I'm looking forward to dividend news on Monday, although I expect they will just tell us it's coming at the full year, with an interim the year after as an increase.

[boffster] 20/3/2012 09:57

Aleman not guilty of any trades for a couple of weeks :-)

PJ1.... FIF is the No.2 cake maker in the country, the No.1 of course being PFD. As Aleman says there are lots of other smaller ones around such as Renshaw (owned by RGD)

[aleman] 20/3/2012 09:52

I'm not sure about the competition as there are loads of small ones and a few regional ones. Goodluck with that one.