Filta Share Discussion Threads

[outsizeclothes.com] 15/11/2019 12:05

135 seems to be proving a strong resistance level for now.
An "end of week" close above 150-155 is needed though to prove any definite chart turning point.

[rivaldo] 15/11/2019 08:47

The figures quoted above from Cenkos are incorrect. The latest forecasts post-update are:

this year : 3.3p adjusted EPS
next year : 12.1p adjusted EPS

There's quite a lot to prove before I'll trust the forecast for next year enough to buy in.

[nobilis] 15/11/2019 08:42

Up it goes

[intelinvestor] 14/11/2019 14:54

not broken but still being sold at 28.4 pe ratio so nobodies getting a bargain on those metrics allown.

it does seem there very optimistic and the trouble is there not delivering. which is not the end of the world but means the pe ratio will fall more inline until this changes.

at the moment other than daily fluctuations in share price what news or updates are we expecting to stabalize and bring more confidence to the market?

i thought i missed the boat before which i was annoyed about but its fallen back down again so maybe i was right to hold off.

[buffetteer] 11/11/2019 07:58

Let’s be clear their Broker Cenkos numbers show the following adjusted eps ;
9.2p for ‘18
8p for ‘19
12.2p for ‘20.
There has been a delay in achieving the large savings in the Watbio acquisition. Moving offices to a new area and changing work patterns , culture takes time & management were too optimistic . But the business is not broken .These are starting to come through in ‘19 & will fully in ‘20 . This is a high quality franchise business that has scaled up in its smaller market the U.K. High margins & high return franchise businesses should be worth c20x imho .
Target £2.44

[intelinvestor] 11/11/2019 00:53

Jonut - Do you have a link to the Edisongroup report?

[rivaldo] 06/11/2019 08:47

Indeed. I saw FLTA present in London not long ago. Everything was apparently rosy and the CEO came across well. I didn't buy, but the share price quickly surged to what I thought was too high a level.

Now we have downgraded forecasts from Equity Development of only 1.3p EPS this year, with 8.11p EPS forecast next year.

That's 50% more EPS than even the 5.39p EPS achieved in 2018, so is still quite a stretching forecast.

At 150p that's a forward P/E of 18.5 - pretty high, and leaving a lot in the price in hope value given the disappointment. I'd have thought a 110p-120p share price would be more realistic at the moment.

[its the oxman] 06/11/2019 00:20

Not gonna be easy holding this for a while now. Nearly bought , a lucky escape for me.

[outsizeclothes.com] 05/11/2019 15:47

135p is another chart support, being the "down spike" limit of Jan 2018.
But with an almost immediate lift today from that to the 150 support area, longs will hope that this support level can hold.
If not it's back to 135.
Any break below that is scary, as it hasn't gone below that since it came to market

[jonut] 05/11/2019 14:17

Hardman note today gives 0.9m fall in Ebitda from their last estimate of 4.2m to 3.3m FY 2019.

2018 H1 EBITDA 1.3m was replicated in H2 to give FY2.6m.

RNS today shows H1 2019 EBITDA as 1.7m and Flta expect the same again in H2. I reckon a rise in EBITDA of 23.5% ain't too shabby.

MM's have dropped the price again selling at £1.35 this lunchtime, which has probably hit a few stops.

My buy earlier was below the mid price, together with other suspected 'sells' at the same price.

GLA

[outsizeclothes.com] 05/11/2019 11:42

Profit Warning !
The chart has now broken decisively below 185, so that becomes a big resistance level in future.
The next level of solid support kicks in at around 152 - 155, which, based on today's RNS seems reasonable.
The Company is still taking the "expansion going ahead, but short term expenses hitting profit" line.
The P/E on this year's projected earnings still factors in a lot of expectation of future growth though, so we'll not need any other hold-ups, otherwise the shares will get hammered.

[outsizeclothes.com] 16/10/2019 12:25

This now looks to be breaking downwards again.
The only problem is that the first real support level isn't until 185p - 188p although you can draw a line right across the 24 month chart to make a case that 175p - 185p is a very strong support level.

[intelinvestor] 02/10/2019 14:51

what have i missed. Nice to see share price has changed direction...called the bottom wrong, should have bought some when i had the change fml

[outsizeclothes.com] 26/9/2019 13:54

I also think that paying a divvy, when there's supposed to be so much growth and market share to go for, shows that the Sayers family is more interested in some form of income rather than a total commitment to growing the business.
jmho.

[outsizeclothes.com] 26/9/2019 13:50

I think that there's a lot of "jam tomorrow" built in to the present share price rebound. Profits are flat, Watbios taking longer to integrate (did we get a real explanation why???), and, even at the previous dip share price of 150, p/e was 30+.
Now the p/e is 45 or so, which leaves very little room for anything but very rapid expansion both in revenue and profit.

[glaws2] 23/9/2019 09:36

Thanks for that jonut

[jonut] 20/9/2019 16:10

The free float of shares amounts to 33.3% as the Filta board hold 66.7%. The Sayers family almost 50%!

The Sunday Wail article is here,

[jonut] 20/9/2019 14:50

Holdings as stated in the last AR, show

27.4% Meridian (Sayers family trust)
15.7% V Clewes (director)
12.7% J Sayers ( CEO )
12.5% Gresham House
6.1% R.Sayers (NED)
5.6% Blackrock
5% Ennismore
4.5% J Urosevic (director)
3.7% Cannacord

The last holdings RNS was from Ennismore showing under 3% which may explain the fall in the share price over summer if they continued selling down and are now out. No way of telling as they no longer need to disclose.

SP has resumed it's upward trend after a blip yesterday, which is nice.

[glaws2] 19/9/2019 06:51

Management have also been doing rounds briefing analysts. Also bear in there is very little free float on this stock.

[jonut] 18/9/2019 20:29

Remarkable, but welcome, 33% rise in share price on the back of the Hardman report (usually paid for by the company) and a piece in the Sunday Wail. Incredible! Watching trades over the past few days, many of the buys are less than £1500, possibly small PIs or algos.

After the constant selling and falling share price since spring, sales have been few and far between this week. Perhaps we,ve had a seller who has finished, luckily for me above my buy price.

GLA

[buffetteer] 15/9/2019 18:05

Intel
There no if about it - it is true . FLTA work with their franchisees helping them secure new business especially with large groups such as KFC . They have a collaborative approach with regard to franchisees . They want them to take more franchises ( it’s less effort for FLTA) and they run the franchises better ( more experience).FalTA have an annual conference for franchisees where they celebrate the successes of the franchisees with plaudits & prizes ,

[intelinvestor] 15/9/2019 17:01

Hammonkp
Thanks.

still think its too early for FLTA to be giving out a dividends.


whats the forcast looking PE Ratios for 2020-2021?

[hammonkp] 15/9/2019 15:01

Update report on Hardman & Co

hxxps://www.hardmanandco.com/research/corporate-research/fy19-interim-results/?dm_i=49CL,NNYT,47U9W4,2SDNI,1