Ffi Share Discussion Threads

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 15:43

It's certainly a mess on many scoresI hold my hands up I'm down here

[buywell3] 19/12/2018 15:42

Likewise the rise in liabilities of 50M

Total liabilities 134,494,995 84,279,047

[buywell3] 19/12/2018 15:36

This needs talking about IMO it is a profit warning


Outlook

The Board is pleased with the progress and integration of acquired businesses and operations in our Editing & Equipment Rental, Technical Services, and Insurance Agency businesses. These businesses are all trading in line with or even ahead of our original expectations.

In that light, it is disappointing to report that Underlying EBIT for the Group for the full year is expected to be below previous expectations because of the impact of delays in the timing of revenues from certain larger budget titles within the Completion Contracts business and of revenues associated with the Pandas Documentary within the Content Distribution business.

The Board looks forward to providing updates in this regard in due course. Separately, the Board is clearly disappointed by the Company's poor share price performance since IPO and is committed exploring the options to address this issue.

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 14:42

You seem to be getting bullish as the days gone on stemis

[stemis] 19/12/2018 14:34

This is on a 3.5 x ebit with a pretty good chance that the second half will be better than the first. I imagine they must be looking at further acquisitions.

[tsmith2] 19/12/2018 13:53

like you do for someone who is fully out..

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 13:52

Yes - those glossing over are imho clutching at straws - this will be stuck at these levels till at least next summer with next results

[eentweedrie] 19/12/2018 13:49

well what a disappointment - basically ANOTHER profit warningluckily i was fully out but was kind of hoping we would see ebit forecast maintained

[stemis] 19/12/2018 13:26

What do you think about the low completion contract operating margin?

I noticed that too. I think the fall in the gross profit percentage is down to the comment in the results - "Claims expense of $1.6m (H1 2018: $0.2m) was higher due to claim reserves on two projects.". Thereafter there seems to be a fairly fixed cost between gross profit and operating profit which I guess relates to the infrastructure they have to monitor film progress. The result is quite a high level of operational gearing.

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 12:28

Hi Alan - I liked your post about being wary regarding the directors here - in hindsight was a veiled warning I think

[alan00] 19/12/2018 12:08

What do you think about the low completion contract operating margin?

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 11:55

Exciting - was at 40p three weeks ago

[dave4545] 19/12/2018 11:49

Looks like it will head back over 30p again looking at online prices

[tsmith2] 19/12/2018 11:11

Yes. just some revenue which has been pushed back because of IMAX roll out delays - out of FFI's control!otherwise business doing v well, pieces coming together, broader diverse product offering.

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 11:06

https://lemminginvestors.blogspot.com/2018/12/ffi-holdings-warns-on-earnings-despite.html?spref=tw&m=1Positive write up

[the big fella] 19/12/2018 10:19

Yes looked at it because a few well respected twitter posters in there. It’s not one for me

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 09:54

You ever looked at APC the big fella - much better prospects than here - price very much bottomed - good growth metrics

[the big fella] 19/12/2018 09:48

I held about 400k but sold all but 50k in the high 30’s low 40’s. So I am a holder but looking to increase at the right time.

[dave4545] 19/12/2018 09:38

Already that's the biggest mistake in investing, refusing to sell for a loss once your head is telling you that you do like what you see.

I've took £3000-5000 losses on stocks this year. And now they would be £10k losses.

Not that applies to FFI I think it should be ok from this level but in general once you do not feel the vibe then get out.

[stemis] 19/12/2018 09:36

The profit figures were disappointing and I did consider selling, but have decided not to.

The business which did the damage in H1 was actually completion contracts. Profit was down from $5.590m in H1 2017 and $8.106m in H2 2017 to only $1.518m in H1 2018. If they'd achieved the same as H1 2017 we'd be looking at an underlying EBIT of $10.0m, which is consistent with their forecast $20-22m.
Company comment: The Group's pipeline shows more larger budget titles likely in H2 2019.

Acquisitions actually performed pretty well, which at least initially validates their diversification strategy. Suggestion seems to be that these will grow in H2
Company comment: Reel Media continued to ramp up its business during H1 2019. The Group is experiencing more consistent cash flows with particularly strong growth expected in H2 2019. Reel Media is expected to exceed the Board's expectations through the end of the year.

The valuation is hardly challenging. Based on H1 ebitda of $7.0m and net cash of $15.5m, current rating is 3.4 x ebitda. On the back of the above comments I'd expect an full year ebitda of at least $18m and cash of at least $20m, so 2.4 x ebitda.

Of course everyone has right to be sceptical. FFI have hardly covered themselves in glory since listing - profit warnings, missed forecasts, loss of their FD. The result is the current share price. From here you pays your money and takes your chance...

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 09:36

I'm a Yorkshireman Dave I don't like losing money - I'll stick this out - but after a third profit warning in a row you are going to get negative opinions

[ultimatewarrior] 19/12/2018 09:27

I hold 5000 - £1.7k worth - held five six months - avg 34.98p

[dave4545] 19/12/2018 09:25

Do you really think he holds any TBF

I think 20 years of reading bb posting has classed me a expert in deciphering the real meanings of people's posts on here.

If you held you would never be posting so negative and suggesting the price is going to nearer 10p than current 30p you would say nothing and then sell.