Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 04/11/2017 08:47

Morning wetdream ;-)
You pose, in my view, an interesting intellectual question about the stock market.
Some say the trick of investing, or investing at the right price, is to assess what the market expectation is and to trade off that. I.e. Not to be swayed or rooted in your own expectations. That then implies that there will come a time when news, or someone with influence, might change that expectation and the investor needs to gauge quickly whether that new “expectation”, if you will, will take hold in the market generally. Recent examples, as we are aware, is the “rogue” broking house that queried BOO’s capacity to grow profitably and not suffer “execution risk” and our very own RBC’s querying of “sustainable” high growth for FEVR.
Of course, another strategy is to guess the market’s perception and expectation and see if there is any arbitrage in taking a different view.

Another issue I think you raise is the question of historical continuity in expectation management. We know that, since flotation in 2014, FEVR have issued a Trading update every early November. The continuity argument says that there will be another in the coming days. However, Nicolas Nassim Taleb, he of The Black Swan, warns us that we can be fooled by what he calls an assumption of “linearityR21;. Recent examples of this are, in the political arena, of course Brexit and Trump. So, maybe there won’t be a Trading update until January 2018 as logged on the company’s website. However, some of us are trading off that arbitrage of will there, won’t there. RBC, I think, is one of them (as it’s a regular occurrence, either in good faith, or for manipulative or marketing reasons for analysts to attempt to be both ahead of the curve... and right).
[However, always beware the “This time it’s different” argument!]

So where can we fix ourselves in what we know as facts?
The news issued to the market, on 25 July, carried Warrillow’s Statement as follows:
“We continue to invest and improve our infrastructure, relationships with key suppliers and customers as well as adding to our senior team. The strength of our brand and first mover advantage means we are well positioned as the opportunity for premium mixers continues to gather momentum across our key markets.

Given the strong performance in the first half of the year, the Board anticipates that the outcome for the full year will be materially ahead of its expectations."

But... do we know what the Board’s expectations are and have they changed in the intervening 6 months?
Has competition come to to take a bite out of the Board’s expectations and the market, and market share, being generated?
The best upside phrase in that I can see is “gather momentum”. This implies not just continuing growth but accelerating growth. But am I right?
Etc. Etc.

What we need, in the current environment, imv to resolve these questions is a Statement! Preferably one before January 2018.
If there isn’t one in November my view is that the status quo prevails. But am I right and what does the market think?
That’s not to say that the market won’t inject doubt to test investors stomachs for gain or pain!

May your Luck go with you! To misquote a well known comedian!

[wetdream] 03/11/2017 22:31

Sogoesit,
Thanks. But doesn't that create over-expectation amongst shareholders?
In the past, trading updates have been versus 'market expectations', or 'board expectations'. What would they be in the current situation? Particularly since they always seem to exceed them!
Just seems to me that in that climate, almost any statement (or perhaps worse, NO statement)may be viewed as 'disappointing' causing short-termers to bail and push the share price down.
The 'problems' (or not....) of a successful company.;-)

[little minx] 03/11/2017 13:18

Had lunch out Wednesday and ordered a gin and said I assume it's Fevertree? The reply was "what else would it be?" Schweppes have sat on their laurels slightly too long and it will take ages for them to regain their lost ground imho.

[steptoes yard] 03/11/2017 13:10

As I stated yesterday Schweppes recent surge in publicity is a rebrand of the same old taste. They haven't changed the product !

[jch18] 03/11/2017 12:30

Last year trading update 7th November. Have not checked website. No figures were given last year, so just expect expetation and any info on new sales.

[shanklin] 03/11/2017 11:52

Are Schweppes just doing more promotion, which in isolation seems largely pointless, or also upgrading their product range to compete realistically with Fevertree's offer?

[orissander] 03/11/2017 11:41

Today is the first day of FOMO, the famous "fear of missing out".
Who sold yesterday will regret after the trading update or if we do not have news this month, for sure after next earnings report.

[sogoesit] 03/11/2017 11:27

nowhere. On this thread we were basing it on conjecture given that since float it has made a statement first Monday in November each year.
Who knows, this year could be an exception.

[wetdream] 03/11/2017 10:43

Apologies-but where has it been announced that there will be update Monday.
TIA

[orissander] 03/11/2017 10:29

I bought more at 1900 yesterday.

[5chipper] 03/11/2017 09:53

Looks oversold to me. Picked up a few this morning

[nimrod22] 03/11/2017 09:52

26% below its recent peak price

[nimrod22] 03/11/2017 09:48

FEVR now looking oversold re Bollinger, trix, rsi, macd graphs, suggest its time to buy in. Its also been suggested that FEVR could be a takeover possibility by one of the bigger companies.

[christh] 03/11/2017 09:17

bamboo2
Would imagine shorts closing toady as they will want to protect gains, and not risk a positive outcome on Monday.

Do that then!

[jarega85] 03/11/2017 08:58

Is there shorts open on this?

[martywidget] 03/11/2017 08:57

There is a video on Youtube of a someone doing a review (a pretty bad quality video, but interesting hearing his comments)

It goes:

Today we're going to review a British Ginger Ale.

Fever-Tree Premium ginger ale made with natural gingers...

It's in a smaller pack than Canada Dry which is the main ginger ale on the market...

...Lets get a taste of this...

It's pretty good actually.

This is probably even better than Canada Dry actually.

The British know how to do this right.

So if you guys ever get a chance either to go to England or go to a market that has all these premium drinks... be sure to get this drink.. It's actually really good.

[juzzer100] 03/11/2017 08:47

Marty - you must agree videos are very very American and still going after people who want to put excess sugars and flavours into beautifully produced spirits. As mentioned before US consumer is very different but I can't see this working for the higher end consumer. FT do need to address though for mass market in the US. Think a bit of advertising around taste required.

[ccr1958] 03/11/2017 08:47

certainly being heavily traded !!

[bamboo2] 03/11/2017 08:45

Would imagine shorts closing toady as they will want to protect gains, and not risk a positive outcome on Monday.

[martywidget] 03/11/2017 08:37

Schweppes España youtube channel various videos give an idea of their marketing of premium mixers.



This is the premium mixers site for europe:



Still no new Fever-Tree marketing videos, yawn.

[juzzer100] 03/11/2017 08:28

If Schweppes nail a low sugar version then I think we will have a fight on our hands. Anyone can add sugar or fruit flavours to stuff and make it taste nice, but it also makes the consumer fat... or orange, in the case of Sunny Delight!Looking at their website Schweppes Zero is what they have atm, so not feeling too concerned, yet!

[ccr1958] 03/11/2017 08:24

went thru as a sell . :))