Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[bulltradept] 26/4/2023 15:43

TAKEOVER approach surely?

[edwardt] 26/4/2023 15:36

pepsi results were stonking. just saying...

[liam1om] 26/4/2023 15:33

Possible, moving on volume.

[brain smiley] 26/4/2023 15:30

Could a bid be coming ?

[castleford tiger] 07/4/2023 13:36

Asia for sure is a target

[castleford tiger] 07/4/2023 11:59

I think thats more than possible.
Our contact looking after us is a area manager and we do 1/2 a million a year.

Its slightly skewd by the fact that production/storage/distribution are all carried out by third parties.
Most drinks giants control these elements. As i say asset lite.

Mistakes mate we all make those. I sold my wife's TUI yesterday with about a 75% loss.
Worse they are in an ISA so no tax back.
tiger

[apad] 07/4/2023 11:13

Not surprised, CT. Replace the b with an m 😊
300 employees and 344million of revenue.
Still an excellent number.
A degree of uncertainty about the employee numbers.
I make other mistakes as well.
apad

[castleford tiger] 07/4/2023 10:18

APAD

Not sure i understand this line

Revenue/worker is about a billion, which is more than excellent

cheers tiger

[apad] 07/4/2023 10:01

BVXP is my largest holding. Here are my comparison figures. Interesting 😊
apad

Cap/Pft Cap/Rev
(years) (years) EPIC
21 17 BVXP
46 4.1 FEVR

[apad] 07/4/2023 09:11

BTW
It is interesting to compare how many years of revenue buys the company and how many years of a profit measure (I use Operating Profit) buys the company. The difference illustrates the point I make above. They can also be usefull measures of comparison between companies.

[apad] 07/4/2023 09:05

Good posts CT and ianhood.
The points I would make are that with a rapidly growing, early doors, company it is revenue growth that is far more important than any profit measure because it gives management the flexibility to deploy money to grow. Revenue/worker is about a billion, which is more than excellent.
As CT says its difficult to compare with pre-covid days.
My main concern is whether the brand will maintain its pricing power, particularly in mature markets like the UK.
Watching the US on social media their growth is well managed - rolling out products appropriate to the different States and hiring experienced yoodles.
When they are more mature and not coping with growth in new markets and logistics expenses there will be plenty of cash for shareholders.
I've never seen a consumer brand grow to a market leader like this - and in so little time.
However a brand leader can collapse quickly if management takes its eye off the ball. Check out Pear's soap!
apad

[castleford tiger] 07/4/2023 08:06

They always say don't fight the market price............ go with it.

APAD is winning here and by ANY measure this is not cheap.( so well done )

Its well supported by the market.

Profits have fallen and the companies own target shows no growth this year due to headwinds. The recent 10% price rise will help arrest the fall in GP.

At some point ( maybe if USA stops growing ) and the stock becomes a mature rather than growth business the valuation will have to fall.

Its a difficult comparison since pre-covid days

last 4 years
EBITDA 77.00/57/63/39 does not appear as a growth stock.
EPS 50p/35p/38p/21/ again same here.

At the moment there is not enough earnings to turn this into a dividend stock either.
1% yield and earnings almost all paid out...........means to get 4% EPS needs to be mid 60p and thats paying it all out.

That would reduce p/e to 22 x

Growth doubling would only result in diluted EPS of under 40p so still 30x p/e.

There is 100m of cash in the business net i believe.
However no properties etc its very asset light.

The market clearly sees some growth this year but the company said a flat year.
Half time will be interesting.

the other major concern i have is the DRS scheme thats coming.
It starts in Scotland this year. Is glass included?

Tiger

[ianood] 06/4/2023 23:24

FEVR being an AIM stock and, I believe, ticking the boxes for IHT exemption will therefore, alway trade on a significantly higher PEG than it's peer group that doesn't carry the same IHT attributes. Additionally, having a market cap of < than 1.5bln this also provides some level of comfort relative to the many smaller AIM stocks with similar benefits. For these reasons I would personally be ultra wary of shorting the stock which has a wider audience than would normally be accepted.

[apad] 06/4/2023 16:55

FEVR is 20% of my portfolio.
Currently on 104% gain - been a lot higher though!
I'm still optimistic based on the US growth rate, through a difficult period.
FWIW
apad

[wetdream] 06/4/2023 13:21

PEG Factor of 4.92!! 😳
———;—-

PEG factor equal to one, means that the market is pricing the stock to fully reflect its EPS growth potential.

- A PEG factor greater than one, indicates that either the stock is overvalued, or that the market expects its future EPS growth to be greater than the current consensus.

- A PEG factor less than one, indicates that either the stock is undervalued, or that the market does not expect the company to achieve its forcasted EPS growth.
———;—-

[toffeeman] 06/4/2023 12:41

Have I got the cojones to short if it hits 1300 again?

[wetdream] 06/4/2023 12:14

MAJOR SHAREHOLDING
This information was last updated on 27 February 2023.
NAME
%
Lindsell Train Investment Mgt 15.10
Capital Group 8.51
Fundsmith 7.64
Charles Rolls 5.48
Tim Warillow 4.88
Baillie Gifford 3.89

Perhaps Nick Train protecting his investment? Now over 15%.

[apad] 05/4/2023 16:18

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. CT. 😊

apad

[castleford tiger] 05/4/2023 14:56

APAD

Still very cheap in a hotel.
£8.70 gross less 1.45 vat = £7.25 net takings

They have to serve it with relish etc.
So overall very cheap.
The tonic costs them £1.00 and most want 3/4 times cost.
The gin works out ok costing £1 a shot so £2 per double........x3 gets to £6.50

So a £10.00 wine is £30 to £40

I am with 123Trev
i dont see the valuation AND how it went up on flat forecasts is still a mystery

tiger

[123trev] 05/4/2023 13:02

Still an absolute ridiculous valuation here considering the dragons would still say forget it and don’t drone on about that peg ratio because this stock will make you poor in slow motion.

[apad] 05/4/2023 12:53

Good job I was on expenses!

apad