Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 19/2/2018 19:36

Last Friday's turn marked a high.
The next potential turn is Wednesday 21/2/2018. Watch prior price action for likely direction.
The Falling Wedge [blue trendlines] contains an Island.

[discodave4] 19/2/2018 18:38

Hi VillaThe christh fantasy timeframe of course!.Based on daily RSI this hasn't been oversold since early Nov last year.WARNING: Newbies ignore our resident clueless ramper christh and DYOR.DD

[villarich] 19/2/2018 10:17

Oversold???!? On what time frame? It's gone from £21 to £25 in about 6 weeks.

[christh] 19/2/2018 09:50

price will be broken £25.45-£25.60 today
All imho.
It will spike upwards in afternoon or before.
Price oversold, good time to accumulate.
£28 is the next milestone to break through, after or before 13 March

[discodave4] 19/2/2018 09:35

Doesn't look like £25 is going to be broken until results next month IMO.

[christh] 19/2/2018 08:46

today will hit £25.45-£25.60

trading volume increases

[villarich] 19/2/2018 08:35

Haha half villa is now an official investing term!Yes XPP has been good for me. Only been in a year but it popped up on one of my screens so took an initial position and have averaged up ever since. That initial stake has doubled.I did have a little wobble with it recently as it started setting lower lows, but I held on as it's still less than a billion in mcap and the rate of growth hasn't changed. I could see it doubling again. It'll just take time as it's not a fashionable company. In the meantime I'll keep taking the fat dividends and reinvesting them.

[sogoesit] 18/2/2018 17:25

XPP a good'un! One for the patient.

Let's say I did a "half-Villa" on that one....;-)
I got impatient a few months ago, sold half, only to see it nearly double. Now buying back bit by bit as long-term prospects look pretty good imv.

[villarich] 17/2/2018 21:03

Good analysis earlier sogo - thanks for the name check too ;-)Seeing as thought were all declaring our top 5, here's mine XP PowerBoohooRamsdensXL MediaFever TreeAnd ahh Blue Prism!!! My one that got away. I was young and naive and too emotional!! Bought at £2 and sold at £4 after panicking when it dropped. She broke my heart so cut all ties. She would have been a seven bagger. The floozy!!

[orissander] 17/2/2018 20:10

I have blue Prism in watchlist, I will do a research on Chesnara and ssp group that i don't know.
Thank you

[sogoesit] 17/2/2018 19:32

Sure, no worries.
On invested capital in descending order:
Blue Prism
Fever-Tree
Chesnara
SSP Group
Boohoo

Thanks for yours.
PS I get USD exposure through other UK shares but have been out of USD direct exposure for a year or so now. Just started NVDA, 'tho!

[sogoesit] 17/2/2018 14:39

ccr: "It depends" but, in general, no, not based on the "mark-to-market" proportion on any particular day/month.

To explain:
Most portfolio theory, and management, says you should "re-balance" but, for me, taking this advice would mean cutting winners. This seems contrary to maximising my returns so, on this basis, no I don't have a limit in the strict sense. There are other, better ways, in my view to manage the "riskiness" of a portfolio... not to mention psychology.

The issue with having an "over-weight" (in terms of instant valuation) allocation in any one stock is that, on a fall in the sp, you disproportionately get "whacked" in your portfolio. But, to me this is psychological... the regret of loss, or regret of mistiming a sale (calling a top).
So, to counter this behaviour trap I allocate based on "invested capital". That's to say that, if i re-invest or invest new capital, I look at how much the initial capital allocations have been and allocate on that basis rather than look at the valuation at any particular time.

However...
I try to have 75% of the overall portfolio in not more than 10 or 12 stocks and I rank my stocks on a "growth" matrix to keep the overall portfolio "in shape" when/if I have new capital or capital from a sale of a loser. I may only cut a winner when it gets outranked by another "winner" (to be).
FEVR over the last 2 years grew from 10% to 17% at one point and is now down at 13% on a valuation basis but is "only" 6.5% on an invested capital basis. In the latter sense I am below 10% (10 stocks) in my portfolio weighting. So FEVR is, in my optics, in fact currently a candidate for accumulating. Whether I accumulate or not depends on where it ranks on my "growth" matrix and this invested capital proportion compared to the others.
Profit is only profit when you realise it otherwise it's a mirage!

In fact the stocks we should worry about are the ones that are getting smaller in the overall allocation (assuming we start from a roughly equal portfolio weighting)!!

I admit I get nervous at some points but I usually "look forward" on a 12 month view, if not more.

[doc robinson] 17/2/2018 14:32

Patience ccr

[ccr1958] 17/2/2018 13:40

Doc we done that to death , next !!

[doc robinson] 17/2/2018 13:38

I wonder when a predator might pounce rumours suggest diageo one of the worlds biggest drinks company may be interested?!

[ccr1958] 17/2/2018 11:23

Sogo do you limit ur self % wise to a stock ?

[sogoesit] 17/2/2018 10:28

Where to next on FEVR?
Valuation: as Villa points out the market has been valuing at 60x 2017 EPS of 40p approx. For 2017 there’s probably not much upside to this for players focused on the rear view mirror. Cautious forecasters will also be concentrating on the risk to a reduction in growth rates (but not growth per se) and what costs might be to invest in the North America market wher the company sees future growth (“dark spirits” which we haven’t heard too much about recently).
On the other hand the company might still surprise albeit expectations have been reduced from “materially221; to “comfortably” over the last two announcements.
TA: valuation expectation sets the tone for the charts where we will be at the second test of the 2500’ish top. The risk to the downside is that this will be tested and found wanting and thus form a double-top longer term. The reward to the upside is that the top breaks upwards and we continue the upward trend.
If I were trading options this would be a candidate for a spread trade now but others, and since I’m long, and me will probably wait for confirmation.
Personally, my guess is that overall growth rates, certainly on EPS, will slow a bit in 2018 limiting the upside. My targets would then be in the £31/£32 range rather than £38/£40 in a year from now (1Q 2019).
Since FEVR is about 13% currently of my portfolio a decision on this is important for me given that I might want to allocate funds to another earlier stage growth stock.

[sogoesit] 17/2/2018 10:07

Bamboo, I used to trade short term (less than one month view) but found I got “caught out” too many times either to the upside or downside.
I think my mistake was to remain focused on the timescale that I was looking at for a trade. For example, say, a 4 week view. However, what I should’ve been doing, now that I reflect, is to also “zoom-out̶1; and look at what the longer term picture might look like. The issue here is that for this second “picture”; the best indicators might not be the same as for the more focused view (i.e. my experience is that some indicators do not scale or at least on the same criteria).
One can (should?) always check further on the general (market) trend too.
Hope this view gives some insight right or wrong.
Best,

[bamboo2] 16/2/2018 18:10

Sogo, you were right about holding to 2500
I'll have to wait until next week now.
Good weekend all.

[ccr1958] 16/2/2018 15:33

Having a little go at Wpp see you soon .

[villarich] 16/2/2018 15:29

Boom! That's £25 broken

[villarich] 16/2/2018 10:21

I think you'll find we all got it right as we bought in when the price was under £10.

[christh] 16/2/2018 10:10

I have bought BOO in my ISA today at £1.89

Great potential and great story behind it

It has come down from £2.34 when I last seen it.

DYOR