Falcon Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[rayrac] 06/11/2003 20:06

The directors can't lose, 8.25p a share!! Like the chance eh. But it does give one in the eye to Sterling?

[djalan] 06/11/2003 19:40

fb
can't see a FOG connection on the url above
Just a bit about n/sea and Talisman

[flyingbull] 06/11/2003 18:56

I can't think of better growth areas than that owned by FOG!
fb

[gerry2] 06/11/2003 09:57

In the trough .
oink oink
LOL

[djalan] 06/11/2003 09:15

OFFER EXTENDED

[flyingbull] 05/11/2003 23:05

Obviously www.oil-barrel.com do not really understand how to value FOG that is predominantly an exploration company. It fails totally to explain the relevancy of expected monetary value (EMV) for exploration prospects that is commonly used in the oil industry.
The value of just under US$10 million net to FOG is related to Chinquetti and Banda only (in addition to the US$10 million and additional milestone payments for each new discoveries). Chinquetti and Banda is already worth US$20 million net to FOG.
The huge potential of the exploration acreages on a risked basis is worth US$449 million net to FOG. On an unrisked basis is US$2921 million net to FOG. You have to ask yourself, giving the exploration drilling successes so far, what are the chances of FOG continues to discovery oil? If you think it's about 15% chance, then FOG has a good chance to get to the risked value of US$449 million net to FOG. Current FOG market capitalisation is only $60 million. What other investment can give us a return of 7.5 times in 5 to 10 years time?
The TIOF exploration well is the key. If I were a white knight, I'd prefer to wait for the TIOF results since it should be near or at reservoir soon. From a political standpoint, it'd not look good if it put in a counter bid and then TIOF is a duster. I'd hope SEY does not obtain enough vote and that they would extend the offer again to enable FOG shareholders to consider the option in light of the TIOF results.
fb

[bomfin] 05/11/2003 17:39

Anybody spot the glaring mistake in the Oilbarrel article.
6 million pounds divided by 100 million doesn't make 60p. Not by my calcs anyway.
bomfin

[andy] 05/11/2003 16:46

mitzis,

I got an advert!

[djalan] 05/11/2003 09:26

Fusion Indicates More Time Is Needed To Evaluate The Company In The Face Of A Hostile Bid From Sterling Energy
The bid by Sterling Energy for fellow London AIM listed junior Fusion Oil & Gas is dragging...................................

[flyingbull] 03/11/2003 18:56

Kim_Clay,

According to today's FOF news release:
"The Tiof well, Chinguetti-4-6, was spudded on 28 October and, based on recent experience in Mauritania, the Board of Fusion anticipates on the basis of current progress that the well could intersect the reservoir interval within the next two weeks. The Tiof well is being drilled to evaluate a prospect similar in its geological character and oil potential to the Chinguetti Field."

I'd have thought the chance of discovery is pretty good, don't you think so? If one believes so then we should take no actions w.r.t. SEY's offer. The discovery should support FOG's share price if SEY's takeover is not successful.

fb

[jzk841] 03/11/2003 16:47

Why does Sterling Mean dillution ? FOG management have not delivered and no real change in Cashflow until Late 2005 ? Sterling have a good management and proven track record.....

Just wondering why this is bad for FOG ?

Im also surprised theres absolutly no hint as to any of the "Six" mysterious other bidders ?

IMO this would do more good than harm.... but then agian im just a beginner and an SEY holder :-)

[djalan] 03/11/2003 15:24

Hardman HNR give an update every Tuesday on Mauritania

They have recently spudded the next exploration well

Also may be of interest

[kim_clay] 03/11/2003 15:16

When will we know the results of Tiof?, hopefully it should be close to the reservoir by now. Hopefully FOG can give us an update on this soon.

[djalan] 03/11/2003 11:11

(Updates with take-up rate on Sterling offer, progress at Chinguetti field)
LONDON (AFX) - Fusion Oil & Gas PLC said it is in talks with "substantial
companies" from North America, Europe and the Far East and that there is
continuing interest in Fusion's portfolio of licence interests.
Fusion said it is currently unable to confirm their identities due to
confidentiality agreements.
On Sept 25, Fusion said it rejected an revised bid from Sterling Energy PLC,
saying the 39.5 mln stg offer undervalues the company.
Fusion said some of its shareholders, including some directors, who own
Fusion Oil & Gas NL partly paid shares wish to pay the 19.9 Australian cents due
per Fusion NL share to convert them to Fusion shares.
As a result of this increase in Fusion's total issued share capital,
Sterling's announcement on Oct 23 that the take-up rate on its offer was 47.54
pct has now been reduced to about 46.5 pct. On the operations front, Fusion said
following successful testing of the Chinguetti-4-5 appraisal/early development
well it expects to decide on the field's commerciality by the end of this year.
Subject to a declaration of commerciality, production at Chinguetti is expected
to begin in late 2005 at a rate of about 75,000 bopd. Also two exploration wells
will be drilled in the Woodside Petroleum Ltd operated PSC B by the West
Navigator drillship with the Tiof well, Chinguetti-4-6, spudded on Oct 28. After
drilling the Tiof well, work is expected to start on the Poune well "to evaluate
a prospect with different geological characteristics and greater potential than
that of Chinguetti and Tiof," Fusion said. Fusion said the active drilling in
Mauritania, and an independent valuation report of Fusion's West African licence
interests, reinforce its view that Sterling's offer is "opportunistic and
undervalues Fusion".
As a result the company has advised shareholders not to act on the Sterling
offer.
jc

[rayrac] 03/11/2003 10:57

Got to hold on. Just ask yourselves, why is Sterling desperate to wind this one in? They know what value is out there plus some, you don't make a bid for assets valued at their offer price.

Must be better under all rational thinking, to stay with it. Sterling means dilution!

[djalan] 03/11/2003 10:47

STOP PRESS



5. Recommendation

In the Board's opinion, the active drilling in Mauritania, together with the
conclusions of the independent valuation report, reinforce its view that the
Offer from Sterling is opportunistic and undervalues Fusion.

It is inevitable that the process of evaluation of Fusion's exploration assets
by third parties and the taking of a decision by any of them as to whether to
make an alternative offer is a time consuming process. As a result, Shareholders
are strongly urged to continue to exercise patience by not taking any action in
respect of the Sterling Offer, thereby allowing these parties adequate time to
consider their position and the terms of any offer they may wish to make.

The Board will keep Shareholders informed of how discussions with third parties
progress.


3 November 2003

[flyingbull] 03/11/2003 07:39

I don't think the valuation is a waste of time. It has to be done for potential serious buyers. Now it's out of the way, still hanging on my few Fog shares, FOG has now positioned themselves where a quick drop goal would decide the match, the game is not quite over yet or is it?

[djalan] 31/10/2003 21:07

Dalgaard
I agree
The valuation is a waste of time
FOG management had a good plan but it has fallen apart a bit at the seams

Nov 5th will have a dual significance for us poor FOGGERS!

SEY chart loks like H & S forming

[dalgaard] 31/10/2003 19:54

Seen it Djalan - FOG promised us an update on talks with prospective buyers today - all they have provided is a smoke screen. We knew the independent valuation was ongoing and now they're trying to show everyone what the true value of the company is. I have only scanned report but first thing that struck me was that AGC (Croix du Sud) was valued at risked $83m with FOGs old 20% interest - do they really think that Amarada Hess would walk away from this. This raises serious questions about the rest of the data (all supplied by FOG of course). I wish it was different but afraid too little too late and as far as I'm concerned FOG mgmt can FOG off.

Where are your buyers guys???? - if you have none then you have deliberately been misleading investors for the past week.

[djalan] 31/10/2003 19:01

Fusion Oil & Gas plc
("Fusion" or "the Company")

Independent Valuation



On 20th October 2003, Fusion stated it had commissioned an independent technical
review of its assets to establish the quantum of the proven, probable and
possible reserves that could be reasonably attributed to the Company.



Fusion has now received the report, which was prepared by Scott Pickford Ltd ("
Scott Pickford"), a leading firm of oil and gas valuation experts. Below is
Scott Pickford's executive summary of its report.......................................................



Just seen this
Will read it later when I return from the gym (& sauna)

[eurofox] 31/10/2003 18:59

wait and see, you may be surprised

[currypasty] 31/10/2003 18:38

On 20th October 2003, Fusion stated it had commissioned an independent technical review of its assets to establish the quantum of the proven, probable and possible reserves that could be reasonably attributed to the Company.


so what is the bottom line ?


.. and what was the point of the exercise, and at what cost ?