Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[desertrat13] 13/2/2022 08:25

Bloody Southwark bridge was closed last night,due to filming taking place,my frustration subsided though when I see that Facilities by ADF we’re supplying the trailers,good luck all.

[hastings] 12/2/2022 12:01

Further evidence of increased spend and with plenty of traction.

[starpukka] 12/2/2022 11:34

Rivaldo. True words. Overall the Naked Trader's shares have done well. I've had some great tips off him in the past. I also found his book useful regarding bad habits and what to avoid when dealing in shares. He has his faults, ego, etc....but don't we all.

[onjohn] 12/2/2022 10:57

1000 words wasted

[rivaldo] 12/2/2022 07:48

Good to see the Naked Trader buying more ADF.

Whatever you might think about his commentary (necessarily brief given the amount of companies covered), or whether you trust his trade reporting, overall his picks do well and have done so for many years now.

And of course in doing so he's bringing ADF to more people's attention. Which is a good thing. Here's what he said yesterday afternoon:

"I bought some more Facilities by ADF.

Discussed them at the last update in depth so you can go back to the archive for that then lazy me has less writing to do about it.

I see the Mail on Sunday picked it up and tipped it.

Strange that paper seems to tip a lot of stuff after I feature them here (!?).

Anyway the write up was decent and agree with it, you should be able to google its write up.

Got lucky here I think with one of the few IPOS in the last 12 months that have actually been realistically priced and hopeful that it will hit 100p in time.

Today it issued an ahead of expectations statement and it was all rather bullish.

Unlucky they released the statement on a down day though. And of course as is typical on results day the shares fell - I might be tempted for another top up."

[sphere25] 11/2/2022 16:09

Tipped by Naked Trader with a £1 target.

It is almost becoming pointless posting his tips though. In the past there would be a BUYING FRENZY post a tip, nowadays it is dribs and drabs. No idea where the followers are. He is always going on about how much he has made so really peculiar stuff.

Wonder where they all are?

Are you out there? :-)

ADF - already beating expectations. The start of major outperformance that the market hasn't priced in?

I can go along with that.

A line of shares to clear here. Once it gets gobbled up (wider market pending), this should move higher.

Central bank plonkers make you feel bearish but trying to be bullish too!

All imo
DYOR

[nobilis] 11/2/2022 15:31

km1811 Feb '22 - 13:05 - 115 of 116



spam

[rivaldo] 11/2/2022 13:17

The above post is good reason to always DYOR rather than rely on others, especially as regards fundamentals like P/E ratios.

Cenkos' forecast on initiation on 8th February was for 4.5p EPS for the year just ended, i.e a P/E at the now 82p of only 18.2. They then forecast 3.9p EPS this year (given increased costs post-IPO), rising to 5p EPS next year - a forward P/E of 16.5.

I suspect after today's "ahead of expectations" statement Cenkos will probably leave their forecasts unchanged until the prelims are out, which would be the ideal opprtunity to upgrade those forecasts for this and next year.

[km18] 11/2/2022 13:05

Facilities by ADF issued a trading update for FY21 this morning and performance has been strong. The business enjoyed a strong close to 2021 and currently expects to report FY21 revenues of c.£27.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of not less than c.£7.5 million, ahead of current market expectations. The Company raised £15m of gross proceeds on admission to trading on AIM and has already started to invest by expanding orders for additional vehicles and trailers to meet demand. Management is also actively reviewing initial acquisition opportunities in line with the Group's strategy targeting “ambitious, yet highly achievable growth.” The company listed a little over a month ago and share price is already surging higher, up over 50% so far. Valuation is a question mark, forward PE ratio around 34. There is growth here in coming years, whether it is sensible to buy at current valuations and with little trading history to gauge, is another matter. This is definitely an interesting company to follow, but caution suggests only monitoring it for the time being....from WealthOracleAM

[madmix] 11/2/2022 09:28

It's in Cenkos' interest to be conservative with their forecasts.

Under promising also allows ADF to put out "ahead" statements, which private investors always love to see.

[adamb1978] 11/2/2022 09:27

Agreed about EBITDA margins madmix. ALways happens post an IPO because of the plc running costs, and various other similar costs which people don't put in that bucket but which inevitably get layers into functions (additional finance heads, another lawyer etc)

[74tom] 11/2/2022 09:24

Cenkos forecast 2021 revenues of £25.2m just 3 days ago! So I wouldn't hang your hat on their 2022 numbers ;) Chocolate & teapot come to mind.

[johndoe23] 11/2/2022 09:13

Cenkos are forecasting adj.eps 5-7p for this year and next

[madmix] 11/2/2022 08:59

I think 5.5-6p looks about right for 2021 eps.

When considering projections for 2022, bear in mind the following comments from Cenkos :

"Adj EBITDA margins

We expect these to decline YoY in FY22E, due primarily to extra an c£350k of Plc running costs (auditors, public relations, listing fees, company secretary etc), as well as an extra c£500k from higher management remuneration and an enhanced Board. Margins are then expected to rise again in FY23E as the business scales."

[cheshire man] 11/2/2022 08:54

Always a good way to start the day to read ahead of expections :-)

[bull19] 11/2/2022 08:53

Thanks John. Schoolboy error from me

[adamb1978] 11/2/2022 08:52

EPS of 5.5p-6p IMO

EBITDA of 7.5m, less around £2m D&A gives £5.5m adj EBIT. The D&A is a little difficult to predict though given the ramp in H1 this year compared to before. I think I've under-estimated it, but then again the £7.5m is a 'not less than' so those two might balance out

Then there's a bit of interest and 20%ish tax, gets me to around £4.3m net income, or 5.7p EPS

The forward looking narrative in the TU is as important in my view though

[johndoe23] 11/2/2022 08:46

I have it as roughly 3M of earnings this year divided by 76M shares in issue...

[bull19] 11/2/2022 08:29

I get an EPS of 7.5m / 36.8m x100 = 20.4. If I've got that wrong, please explain?!

[tallprawn] 11/2/2022 08:23

I have similar workings - It's just too cheap after today's update.Let the short term profit takers exit - They will regret this as the share price has to adjust upwards. Sit tight and this will reprice itself above 100p in the next few weeks imo.Bizarre that the IPO was priced so low however good that the opportunities here exists!

[johndoe23] 11/2/2022 07:55

Actually, my bad, around 4p...

[desertrat13] 11/2/2022 07:41

Excellent trading update,I knew it was going to be good,I’m seeing their vehicles&Trailers just as often as I’m seeing Sainsbury’s & Tesco,s lorries,glad I’m in early here.

[rivaldo] 11/2/2022 07:25

My favourite phrase - "ahead of current market expectations"....

Revenues are 10% ahead of expectations, and £7.5m EBITDA is a whopping 17% ahead of expectations....and that £7.5m is the MINIMUM expected.

We knew 2022 visibility was excellent, and we now know 2023 is already building nicely.

Plus there's the likelihood of acquisitions highlighted today.

Lovely stuff.