Experian Share Discussion Threads

[playboyofthewesternworld] 18/5/2009 09:34

If EXPN plans a more progressive dividend policy or a cash return to shareholders, I think we'll see a 20% spike up within weeks.

Watch this space, results out Wednesday.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 16/5/2009 07:57

If EXPN really does go ahead and put forward a progressive dividend policy, I feel that could provide EXACTLY the right stimulus to get the share price heading back towards 600p. Look at the following article and you'll see why:

From The Times May 16, 2009

Investors to lose more income as companies trim dividends
Miles Costello and Marcus Leroux

Shareholder income could fall by a further 35 per cent as more companies cut dividends to preserve cash, leading investors fear.

BT became the latest big company to cut its payout this week and Marks & Spencer is forecast to halve its final dividend when it announces its annual results on Tuesday.

Richard Batty, global investment strategist for Standard Life, predicts that dividends across the stock market will fall by up to 35 per cent between now and 2011. Some City traders, who have developed a market for trading dividends, are even more pessimistic and are predicting that leading companies will cut payouts by up to 50 per cent during the current financial year.

Mr Batty said: "The cuts we are seeing are pretty unprecedented. You have to go back to recessions and world wars before you see anything like it."

The fall in income will be a further blow to pension funds and to private investors, who are hurting from low interest rates that have wiped out interest payments from their bank savings.

About eight million pensioners rely on dividends or savings income to supplement their state pension. More than a million private investors suffered as a result of BT's dividend cut. The top 100 companies have reduced their dividends by about 15 per cent since late last year and analysts' estimates suggest cuts of a further 10 per cent to 15 per cent by next April.

Roger Lawson, a director of the UK Shareholders' Association, which represents individual share owners, said that the stability of dividend payments was particularly important to retail investors. He said that although some companies were being prudent, others were using the recession as a way of cutting the payout by more than necessary. He cited Legal & General, the insurer, which in March cut its dividend for the first time in its history.

Mr Batty said that despite the drastic cut in expected dividend income, institutional shareholders were broadly supportive of efforts by companies to preserve capital. He said: "We are seeing the severest recession since the 1930s. That impacts on corporate profitability. To some extent companies are being forced to cut dividends.

"Usually, it is a lack of confidence in the outlook that prompts a dividend cut; now it is about management taking action. If this action means that the company survives, investors will give that the thumbs up."

Leading City fund managers said they were hoping that the present round of dividend cuts would be a one-off. Investors will begin to ask questions if companies try to push through an unexpected second round of smaller payouts next year, they said.

Mr Batty added that Standard Life Investments was bullish on company shares. The yield on FTSE 100 shares, at about 5 per cent, compared with cash, is at its highest level for 100 years, he said. In November, Sir Stuart Rose, the executive chairman of M&S, held the interim dividend at 8.3p, despite cutting capital expenditure after a plunge in profits and sales.

Analysts suggest that M&S will post pre-tax profits of £615 million, down 46 per cent on last year. Some analysts believe that the retailer will maintain its final dividend, although most are expecting a cut. M&S declined to comment.

More than one million private shareholders in BT, the struggling telecoms group, lost out this week when Ian Livingston, the chief executive, cut the annual payout from 15.8p to 6.5p a share.

Enterprise Inns joined a growing line of companies to reduce their annual dividends last week in a desperate attempt to conserve cash as they battle to endure the recession.

As well as hammering the value of retail investors' share portfolios, the dividend cuts will hit company pension schemes that are heavily invested in shares. Institutional fund managers, which rely on dividend income to generate returns, will also see income hit.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 16/5/2009 07:01

Rumour of the day

Experian, the credit checking business, gained 17¾p to 483p ahead of full-year results on Wednesday that are forecast to show it has been resilient in the credit crunch. There is also talk that it may use its cash pile for a share buyback or dividend increase. JP Morgan set a 600p target and Deutsche Bank raised its target to 540p.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 15/5/2009 13:17

Credit company Experian lifted by buy notesComments (0) Experian, the credit information business, has been given a push by a couple of analyts, making its shares one of the top risers in the leading index.

JP Morgan has started coverage of the company with an overweight rating and a 600p price target. The bank said:

"The weak economy has tempered demand for many products. However, Experian's revenues have been remarkably resilient-with low-single-digit growth throughout the current downturn. We think that's likely to persist-we like the company's consistency, cash flow, and valuation.

"We view the aggressive push by governments (globally) to improve the flow and availability of credit to consumers and businesses as a positive driver for Experian. Essentially we believe credit can't get "better" without Experian enjoying the upside. And in contrast to true financial stocks, Experian has no direct capital risk to deteriorating asset portfolios.

"But it's obviously not smooth sailing. Experian does best in non-recessionary environments when credit is flowing freely and consumer appetite for loans (for houses, cars, cards, etc.) is insatiable. That's not the case currently. And much of the company's recent growth has emanated from two business units, US Consumer Direct and Latin America Credit Services. While we expect both to maintain solid growth, a slip-up would derail overall results."

Meanwhile Deutsche Bank has upgraded from hold to buy with a 540p target. It said:

"Experian has navigated the past 18 months extremely well by focusing on countercyclical activities and being proactive on costs. Management has continued to invest in the business, such that when credit conditions improve Experian will be extremely well placed. In addition the balance sheet will allow capital repatriation to shareholders medium term. Whilst short-term trading remains tough, on a 12 month view, we think that Experian will generate superior earnings and free cash flow growth."

[playboyofthewesternworld] 15/5/2009 13:02

Results due 20 May - could spark a few more upgrades.

[phillis] 15/5/2009 13:01

JontheBaptist wrote a few days ago 1076

"

i am not a long term invester, i am a trader.... i am only interested what the charts are telling me.... afraid this aint looking good after the close below 455. 380 is my next target.... long term 2-3 years you may see 5-600..."

What a tw*t

Have a look also at 1073 - hilarious!

[playboyofthewesternworld] 15/5/2009 11:03

540p is easy. My target is over 600p this year. Cheers for the spot, Knockers2

[playboyofthewesternworld] 15/5/2009 11:02

BROKER CALL: Deutsche upgrades Experian to buy; aggressive price target
15 May, 2009

Experian upgraded to buy from hold and raised its price target to 540p from 348p by Deutsche Bank, which says the credit checker, which says the shares offer real long term value. Broker says: 'EXPN has navigated the past 18 months extremely well by focusing on countercyclical activities and being proactive on costs. Management has continued to invest in the business, such that when credit conditions improve EXPN will be extremely well placed. In addition the balance sheet will allow capital repatriationto shareholders medium term. Whilst short-term trading remains tough, on a 12 month view, we think that EXPN will generate superior earnings and FCF growth.'

[knockers2] 15/5/2009 08:55

huuuuge upgrade from deutsche bank
look

i think that should give the stock some traction

[imperial3] 15/5/2009 08:28

Looking good.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 12/5/2009 10:04

Chart looking excellent

[playboyofthewesternworld] 06/5/2009 10:08

Experian will issue its full year results announcement on 20 May 2009.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 06/5/2009 09:22

Back towards 500p and this time we mean it.

[imperial3] 30/4/2009 00:05

The omens are looking good.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 29/4/2009 16:24

Judging by the banks (which EXPN often gets unfairly lumped with) 450p could turn into 550p in an investing flash ie a couple of weeks

[playboyofthewesternworld] 29/4/2009 13:12

Experian will issue its full year results announcement on 20 May 2009.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 29/4/2009 12:14

Don't get too excited though - EXPN does always go up and down like a tart's knickers lol

It's the trend that matters.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 29/4/2009 09:28

Base Camp 2 is 480p and we're heading thataways today

[playboyofthewesternworld] 27/4/2009 16:06

Time to head north, methinks

[playboyofthewesternworld] 27/4/2009 13:01

This is Base Camp 1.

There are 5 camps on the way up to the top.

[playboyofthewesternworld] 27/4/2009 10:22

Forming a new base ready to tackle the summit

[imperial3] 27/4/2009 09:54

Positive territory!!