Experian Share Discussion Threads

[sllab101] 01/2/2008 15:57

out for+84

[n1ckcfm2000] 01/2/2008 14:49

Investor seminars are generally positive.

Watcxh the finacials, they are cheap but there is talk of rights issues for Barclays and RBS. This is not a good sign. These banks will be in turmoil for some months.

I would also watch MONOlINES , they will be showing some interesting developments over the next couple of weeks.

Ofcourse if a Soverign turns up and puts a bid in then premiums will be attached and you could turn a profit.

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 14:04

Well, EXPN is quite strongly influenced by UK financials so it depends what they do. Day to day who knows?

But UK banks seem likely to rise significantly over February's reporting season and the lead up to ex divi day first week in March.

And a fool's game to short a stock that has just been given a positive re-rating (the investor seminar).

[n1ckcfm2000] 01/2/2008 13:27

On the converse,on the hourly and daily RSI looking overbrought. Remember this stock has a steep gradient it will correct very soon.

[sllab101] 01/2/2008 13:05

stop moved up 429

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 12:57

Looks pretty logical to me today. Oversold positions coming back towards a minimally sensible position on value terms. Long way to go but value will out.

[n1ckcfm2000] 01/2/2008 12:52

There is no logic to these markets , volatility is high .

Confidence will return but not before more pain.

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 12:20

There'll be ups & downs, that's for sure. I know I can't call that the bottom until we're a way down the line (sure feels like a bottom) but I'm 100% confident that the business EXPN is in will still be there and growing in 10 years time.

[n1ckcfm2000] 01/2/2008 12:17

Fed has let the cat out of the bag with its recent interest rate moves, it is fighting fire , not preventing it.

I must admit i as surprised by the gap up this morning, but this market will catch you, there is no logic just hedge funds!

The turning point ?

Before sucha turn in trend of the stock, you need a double bottom for confirmation ( at least) of the support. Many a trader will TRY to test the 350 to 360 level again.

.. Its a tough market!

Ps I am looking for the filling of the gap today !

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 12:01

Aware of that - they probably had a short on LOL :-)

But was way oversold. I wouldn't want to fight the Fed, the Fed'll win.

[n1ckcfm2000] 01/2/2008 11:54

Fundamentals show you the stock, technicals give you the entry and exit point.

The recent down grading by credit suisse is useful.

Credit Suisse:
Experian Underperform (Neutral) 320P (450P)

I would be very wary of picking bottoms in this market.

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 11:43

Bit of M&A, this time Microsoft + Yahoo, next time EXPN + financial.

Set the share price on fire :-) LOL

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 11:37

N1ck, hope you set a decent stop. Look at the weight of buying vs selling. That investor seminar has rekindled interest in the EXPN story. Not that many analysts properly understand EXPN's model but they understand it one hell of a lot better now and why it deserves a re-rating. Don't forget the director buying and the puzzlement of the mgt team that reasonable results were treated so harshly. Outlook for EXPN is excellent, read the slideshow.

[n1ckcfm2000] 01/2/2008 11:33

On the short term.

I am short .with target of 390.

Watch the retracement back to the lows , 390 sub..( havent got the system up at mo) Many of these stocks will form a double/triple bottom before ending the downtrend.

Some points on recent movements

Be cautious of the bear squeezes, it doesnt mean the stock is recovering , there has been a lot of it recently .

This stock has seemingly broken its down trend this morning, by gaping up through the upper trend line, however this could be an "exhaustion gap" , watch the close , as this will indicate the turning point.

In addition, the rapid increase in share price is not a positive sign, there will be a retracement, a good dependable breakout is a gradual movement up not a vertical movement.

I think this will be bouncing of 422 by tuesday, then sub 390

[sllab101] 01/2/2008 10:55

Lee stops at 419 and will move as and when,W B been having a sniff at expn.nic

[tlee05] 01/2/2008 10:51

Nic you putting up your stop limit today? Made 5p yesterday with out any stress.

[techanalyst] 01/2/2008 10:24

n1ckcfm2000
Yep I agree its possible especially if it fails at the gap break through and its another story. What I will say is yaso may wind people up and becuase he is a longer term holder fine tuning his entries are not that important to him but his views should not be dimissed his record alone says that..

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 10:09

n1ck - is the converse also true? - EXPN came down quickly so is it now going back up quicker?

[n1ckcfm2000] 01/2/2008 10:04

On short term

It looks as though this stock is being ramped up by large iceberged trades. The rapid increase in share price is not consistant with a strong sustainable uptrend. Do not get caught out with this stock, in my opinion will test the 422 level soon and then retrace sub 400p.

Remeber what goes up quickly comes down quicker.

[techanalyst] 01/2/2008 09:54

williebiz
I keep a slight eye on news but thats about it pure charts for me,I get an idea of how the companies are doing from reading respected posters views and seeing what stocks fundamentally fit in with my charting views.

[williebiz] 01/2/2008 09:47

cheers Tech, the business argument is here - slide presentation of the recent investor seminar.

Sure, the fundamentals will ultimately tell as with any company and 22% growth y-o-y is hardly going backwards, is it?

Plus EXPN's business model throws out cash like billy-o, there is as close to 100% conversion of revenues to cash as you are ever likely to see.

But always interesting to get a chartist take, thanks.

[techanalyst] 01/2/2008 09:38

Posted this on SBET yesterday I was waiting to see if it broke 430p to go long or if it closed below I'd have shorted. I was'nt sure what she would do so in the end I missed everything so well done those that held through the break of 430p and getting your reward now.

Afternoon all I see EXPN is the flavour of the day again so heres my 2p's worth.
On the upside the chart explains it but failure at 430p could see a slip back to 4 quid and maybe even test the lows at 350p. For me if your already long then set your stop and hang in there above 430p and you should get your reward.
Obviously a breakout of 430p would I reckon bring more bulls out buy the break and all that.
If not with the failure today at around that 430p mark would make it a nice low risk short.If it goes your way then the longs will get closed and the bears will double up the selling and we all know that scenario.
My own personal view is it really can go either way so over to the fundamentalist to decide which because I'm going to wait and see;-)


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[noon] 01/2/2008 09:21

willie.... closed out much earlier but in a vol., so can't complain.
there is always tomorrow and/or so many fishes in a pond.

[sllab101] 01/2/2008 09:15

Hi noon,I put it there just incase we have a big gap down on the ukx and don't trust cmc with there magic charts..nic