Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[lovewinshatelosses] 28/3/2021 17:21

I was just musing on the idea of the Covid trial being maybe almost a shot to nothing for Octopus et al (hence the fairly substantial discount, because the other pipeline opportunities will not yield imminent results) - but you might be right and perhaps this is a little too left field.
Yes, but not only 4D, also SNG, each time soon after another encouraging RNS dropped. I was not the only holder there at the time thinking 'this guy must know something that we do not, or why would he be selling down now'?! I was therefore more relaxed when he started doing it with 4D, having seen that it was a strategy, not inside knowledge of impending doom.
I am gradually starting to see such selling down as an opportunity now, in certain circumstances like the above. I was less overweight in both those cases than I am here though, so need to be more cautious here until we see something to validate current faith.
I went against my original plan in taking up my OO shares, plus another 10K on top, when the inside buying was so weak, but whether it will make me a mug or make me a mint, we shall see :)

[bumpa33] 28/3/2021 15:48

As for Griffiths, wasn’t it him weighing down on 4D Pharma sp, for ages - before it shot north?

[bumpa33] 28/3/2021 15:38

Lwhl - I can’t see ii’s stumping up £11m if they think the imminent first batch of efficacy data is going to disappoint? If you wanted in you’d wait until AFTER release?

No guarantees of course, it has happened before in others.

Appears to me that Huw seems to stress the ARDS aspect of the trial, over Covid.

[lovewinshatelosses] 28/3/2021 15:01

My thinking currently is that neither the BOD, nor the new iis, are particularly confident in the Covid trial; IMO the real appetite resides in the breast cancer and glioma opportunities. If I am correct, it may also explain why RG has been selling down/out, as he does not seem to be one for hanging around to see results - and as some have suggested, if the covid trial is unsuccessful, it seems likely that the share price will drop significantly in the initial panic. At that point, RG and others may return here (as I remember happened last time this tanked on a bad trial result).
The lack of inside buying and share price movement since the raise would seem to validate this bearish theory - but I am willing to take the risk of holding again now as I did back then, because a negative result is not a nailed on certainty, but a big share price rise would be in the event of good news, AIMO obviously.
Nico - lets hope you are right about STX, but that big inside buying does not get them off the hook for the share price destruction and simple inability to get the product sold in the US which sees most (fellow) holders sitting on fairly significant paper losses right now! Compare and contrast with DNL to date, seeing as we are going off-piste somewhat...
Anyway, lets hope EVGEN puts them both in the shade in time! GLA.

[bumpa33] 28/3/2021 14:34

As much as I am critical of Finncap, they have at least got some pretty significant names onto the share register. You would think the churn (at ii level) that i mentioned earlier, which started/coincided with the departure of Franklin, is a case of out with the old/in with the new and probably mirrors the overhaul in business model.

It feels like it’s taken forever to get here but in reality 12 months to overhaul the board, business plan and the share register to the extent they have is not that long.

I’ve said this many a time, the company has little value attributed to its lead compound - let’s see if they can start to change the markets mind. If they can, the rewards are obvious.

[nico115] 28/3/2021 12:46

Thx for the video Bumpa Do you believe a word he says ? You believe he's confident ? Remind me how many shares he has bought in the company ? Seriously ,shambolic

[bumpa33] 28/3/2021 11:41

From his December interview with Proactive...

“We create compelling data sets for larger companies to take forward. That is our strategy that we have redefined since I joined essentially...”

Note the use of “redefined”.

In fact, just watch the video again. Everything is there to explain the business model and the use of commercial partnerships, going FORWARD.

In this context, The past is the past.

[nico115] 28/3/2021 11:32

Don't forget a lot of vct/EIS so their cost price is halved !! I would also be a buyer at 4p !!

[nico115] 28/3/2021 11:31

I'm not bearish here For me it's a punt If directors were to buy in meaningfully here this would be an outstanding buy Until that point there are much better calculated risks in the market like STX where directors have put their money where their mouths are and has passed all trials !!

[on target] 28/3/2021 11:19

Don't forget the rest of my post nico..

However, you can't ignore the fact that EVG is well backed by quality institutional investors, especially so in the recent placing. It gives plenty of reassurance that there isn't 'something up' that these guys saw fit to invest millions earlier this month:



Major shareholder
Number of shares
Percentage holding


AXA Framlington
23,848,884
8.7%


Octopus Investments
21,875,000
8.0%


SPARK Impact
16,186,446
5.9%


Seneca Investment Managers
14,932,071
5.4%


Chelverton Asset Management
12,500,000
4.5%


RAB Capital
8,750,000
3.2%


Newlands Capital
8,314,815
3.0%

[bumpa33] 28/3/2021 11:10

I don’t think in the past the company has had the financial clout, or more critically the leadership, to do anything other than partner with academic bodies in seemingly random indications adding up to a rather scatter gun and lightweight approach. We now hopefully have the leadership, the cash and a plan to pursue partnerships with commercial entities - that’s how it looks to me, whether they can do it is another matter.

Further, Jones has made a point of referencing that they’ll be concentrating on areas with little competition, hence making the process of getting a drug to market (and critically, partners) somewhat easier - especially in diseases with a high unmet therapeutic need, Gliobastoma/Glioma being a perfect case in point.

[nico115] 28/3/2021 10:59

On target "The directors' very modest holdings and their tiny top-ups in the recent placing are annoying, and I'd very much like them to put some decent money in. "Exactly my thoughts Target Appreciate your honesty Agreed it's a worry

[nico115] 28/3/2021 10:31

I would rather follow the directors I'm long here but if Helen doesn't buy I'm out If you think buying 3k shares shoes confidence you need to see a doctor ASAP Tell me why directors refuse to buy when we are trading at such a low EV ?Maybe we would be better to use the cash as a cash shell and ask Vin M to join the board?I'm v nervous

[nico115] 27/3/2021 22:29

Oh yes amaretto who deramps STX where directors have invested millions of pounds ..currently 33p will be over 100pAnd amaretto Ramps evg where directors bought 300 quid of stock ..will be 2pI can't wait to dump my evg The directors are a disgrace

[diamondstar1] 27/3/2021 21:27

I used to hold some Evgen shares in the past. My two cents.... the company tends to bite a little more than it can chew. The indications it has focused on:- breast cancer, COVID, SAH (in past)... these indications need lots of $$$$. Not easy to get a drug approved in these disease areas, even for big Pharma. Look at Reata with their NRF-2 inhibitors...being developed successfully for orphan diseases. I don’t think Evgen has had very experienced medical/scientific leadership, with knowledge to bring these drug assets across the line. In the recent fund raise, I would have targeted £20 million. Anyway, my humble opinion.

[bumpa33] 27/3/2021 21:16

Some decent names on the share register there & certainly been some churn at the ii level over the last 12 months. Let’s hope that transition phase is ending and similarly the transition in business model will now start to bear fruit.

[bumpa33] 27/3/2021 21:09

makes for chastening reading...

[bocker01] 27/3/2021 19:36

Succinct and to the point Amaretto

[notknowing] 27/3/2021 18:19

Where did that short thread come from? Are they nuts?

[nico115] 27/3/2021 18:08

Thx I'm a seller now Unless Helen buys Let's see

[the millipede] 27/3/2021 17:35

Thanks OT.