Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[pdt] 20/6/2018 12:24

There was an investor presentation yesterday which may explain the rise today?

[nobbygnome] 15/6/2018 07:37

>> teddy

There is a long way to go before the drug is on the market but there is no doubt the current market cap doesn't reflect the potential. After all we have 2 trials in different indications coming out before the end of the year. We only need one of them to be positive and we will be off to the races. I am pretty certain the breast cancer indication will be positive and there will be a lot more open label data on top of the trial data by then. The stroke indication is more difficult to assess IMHO but if it does produce a positive result, it will have a big impact on the price because it addresses an unmet need.

So plenty to be optimistic about here and I am more than happy to hold for the end of the year. I have to admit to selling net 25% of my holding above 25p on Monday but will be looking to add in a big way ahead of the results at the end of the year.

GLA

Nobby

[teddy boy1] 14/6/2018 21:15

I had a look at the interview and its just a shame that more people haven,t viewed it as it brings home to you just what a good result it is so far, given the parameters.

Won,t it be nice if this is carried forward to the end of the year,and that eventually it will become part of the "normal " treatment for advanced cancer sufferers . Think of the hope that it give to many compared with the miserable options that these people are confronted with at present!

This treatment is looking very promising and eventually could provide hope for many.

Fingers crossed that everything remains on target!

[pdt] 14/6/2018 13:56

Just had a listen to the Directors Talk interview about the interim trial results. It was good to hear him upbeat on the results. Worth a listen.

It put the results in context as a "salvage" operation and setting the bar high. It has enabled them to get data in respect of which hormone treatment will work best with SFX-01. The latest presentation suggests Fulvestrant is the one they will combine with. Therefore the headline results for that cohort are likely to be better than for the trial overall. In addition I assume the next phase II will be second line use of Fulvestrant plus SFX-01 as a new hormone treatment rather than a follow on of a failing hormone treatment giving even better chance of success.

They seem to have the next 4 years ahead planned out already, a phase II followed by a phase IIb/III. And are clear on the commercial opportunity ahead.

If they have this much detail on a development pathway now and the plan is to partner I do wonder if they are already talking to potential licensees and this is what they have been advised to do?

Interesting times.

[teddy boy1] 14/6/2018 13:10

TIMBO You seem to be held in quite high esteem here? Two questions if I may ?


(a) What did YOU think of the trial update and longer term prospects?


(b) How come more investors are not buying into the story? At what price do you think they will be tempted to do so?

I appreciate that this will be just an opinion ,rather than advice .

[pdt] 14/6/2018 10:32

I think its more a question of patience rather than fighting. Like Harbourside I have my position to hold for 12 months by which time we will have two phase II results and probably a licence deal. I like the science, the results so far and the risk/reward ratio. It is also encouraging that posters like NG and Timbo are interested.

[teddy boy1] 14/6/2018 10:13

Yet another tree shake this morning.On the basis of todays very thin trading was this justified? Absolutely not! I will say it one more time (at least) -this share is being well and truly "worked" and until such times as buyers return in force these people have the upper hand! How low can it go? As low as they want to take it ! UNLESS - we stand up and fight back! This is becoming almost too farcical for words _ how can a company with such a promising update be marked down so savagely?

Its just as I said yesterday - if there is a TINY shadow of doubt about a small companys future or results(especially one where the shares are very tightly held) these people will work on this by stepping down the price so that some investors will read something into this (when there is nothing untoward) and sell their shares and this in turn sets of a series of buys- this can then be repeated again and again, almost on a daily basis if they so desire ! The result- we end up with a ropey share price which produces a valuation which bears no relationship to the worth of that company!


Are we just going to stand back and let it happen? ,content in the knowledge that once in a while we will be allowed one "good " day when they dispose of their accumulated shares, by stepping up the price to try and fool us that something good is afoot and all of a sudden after days of hardly any buying, people investors pile in again and try to fool themselves into coming up with "reasons" for
the rise.

LETS FIGHT, FIGHT AND FIGHT !

[timbo003] 14/6/2018 08:02

New Hardman Research note here:

[timbo003] 14/6/2018 08:00

New Interview here:

[harbourside] 13/6/2018 18:42

Thanks TB1. Point is there were a lot of investors jumped in and out of IMM for a quick 10 pct and ended up, when the story looked good, jumping back in for many multiples that they shipped out for that quick profit and unfortunately got caught/locked in at the higher price (or like me didn’t have the conviction to take a larger position at a cheaper price and chased the share price up). If they had had the patience and conviction (which equated to about 18 months from the mid 20’s up) to hold and not get tempted by the quick 10 per cent gain then even with a bad result they still would have fared ok, not the mega bagging predicted but ok. EVG is a different animal to IMM science wise as NG has pointed out but I can see the same thing happening in 6 to 18 months here so certainly will not be tempted by daily movements, I have my position and am happy to let the story unfold, you live and learn. GLA holders.

[apfindley] 13/6/2018 18:33

Ok, I'm not bothered about daily movements here either. The way I see it, if the phase 3 goes well, they will likely end up becoming a manufacturer of their patented product, which will see the company worth substantially more than today. Clearly the word is getting out in many publications, about the product and the company. My only question... Is it worth investing (and adding) at todays level, for the future success in 3yrs or even 5+yrs?

[teddy boy1] 13/6/2018 17:08

HARBOURSIDE -A good sensible post. I agree that a lot of patience will be required on this one so probably not much sense in getting hung up on daily movements of the share price!

[harbourside] 13/6/2018 15:44

Have held EVGEN for a while now, little price movement initially, then a placing so a bit of a drop but again no movement for months, with such a small free float a few trades here and there do move the price. With the interim data due the price moved quickly up (which was probably due to some ramping) once achieved profit taken and moved back down but to a higher low. IMO this is promising company, the management seem committed and believe in their research (to the point that they would sell their house and invest in the company). This will move up and down on sentiment and expectation probably until the results at year end, there is always going to be investors who jump on board for the 10 - 15 per cent ride then jump off again, others will want to stay invested but don’t like to see an initial 10 per cent profit walked back down so will sell and hope for a drop to get back in, rinse and repeat, until it passes that point when long term investors buy and hold (I don’t like comparing this to IMM but I was in there when it was a 25p share to stick in the bottom drawer for a year, the price shot up on days and walked back down several times before it went up and stayed there until the bad results, if you had bought in at 25p way back when and got out post results chances are you would still have made money, I didn’t buy enough at 25p on that one but won’t make that mistake with EVG). Good results, looking good for year end so no reason apart from trading and profit taking, for the drop. Also good to see NG, one of the few who called the science part of IMM right, posting optimistically about EVG, hopefully he is just as correct about EVG’s science as he was about IMM. GLA holders.

[teddy boy1] 13/6/2018 15:18

I have checked in with some of my City mates and the mood there is one of amazement that the Engen share price has not risen substancially. A 20 per cent response rate was what was what was aimed for and this was achieved plus a bit more (2 of the patients had their tumour halted for 18 weeks)

No one will actually admit to the share being "got at" but I have no doubt myself that this is what has been happening. !

How low can they take it? That is the leading question!, but rest assured : when these horrible people have achieved what they set out to do and made themselves a lot of money the price will be allowed to rise again. Then what? Probably the next "cycle" will begin all over again!

[teddy boy1] 13/6/2018 12:25

Have just checked on todays trading and see that BUYS outweigh sells by half as much again and yet the share price is way down on the day.! How can this be right (morally)

Can someone please explain the logic behind all this ?( apart from share price manipulation of the first degree)

[teddy boy1] 13/6/2018 12:14

There should be a law against what has happened this morning ;the way the share price was systematically taken down to encourage more sales.This share is definitely being "worked " and the bottom line is that all the shorters and the market makers have made themselves a shed load of money over the past 3 days- and this is on a GOOD trial update ! Think of what would have happened if the news had been bad! On second thoughts the share price would not have been too much different ,left to its own devices.

Anyhow this is AIM , and this is how things are ! Perhaps companys such as EVGEN and IDP with very tightly held shares should be avoided like the plague as they are prime candidates for manipulation .

With such companys;until they have proved themselves 100 per cent, the seeds of doubt will be sown and before we know where we are the share price has been worked down until the share price bears no resemblance to its true value.

This is a real pity as I have not read anything myself which would encourage me to dispose of my shares as, as far as I am concerned ,Evgen Pharma has a very bright future .However ,it could still be many months/years before we are allowed a TRUE share price which values the company for what it is worth and not what some individuals CAUSE it to be, in the quest to make some easy money for themselves, over and over again!


Anyone else agree with my sentiments?

[pdt] 13/6/2018 11:46

In the Northland column on Proactive the forecast financials over the next year has £7m showing as Revenue which could be an up front licence payment ?? If they receive that over the next 9 months it would resolve their cash needs.

The new presentation shows the potential next step is combining it with Astra's Fulvestrant. I don't know the history here but I believe that the cost/benefit of Fulvestrant has been an issue in the past, perhaps combined with SFX-01 the length of disease free progression will be extended sufficiently to make a combined treatment more commercially viable ?? I am guessing here so those with knowledge please correct me. That leads me to again guess that Astrazeneca could be a potential partner ?? DYOR etc

[rathean] 13/6/2018 09:12

Patent protection not entirely resolved yet, cash call in Q3/4, good but not outstanding trial results to-date albeit against terminal settings. Potential of future value but in the short term buy-in alert set at 12p.

[pdt] 13/6/2018 09:04

There is new information in the presentation uploaded today. They have a clear development pathway laid out over the next few years and an analysis of the competition and market opportunity. I am impressed that they have clearly thought this through and the patent protection detailed at the end looks comprehensive although I'm no expert.

[nico115] 13/6/2018 07:50

I think cash will take them to the phase 2 this was what I was told when I bought placing stock

[pdt] 13/6/2018 07:40

The results statement was a good read. I thought it interesting that they have identified analogues that are up to 8 times more potent in respect of eliminating cancer cells. The current formulation is getting good results but a substantial improvement could turn it into a real blockbuster.

The only concern is cash. They have enough to the end of the calendar year Dec 2018. It therefore looks likely they will need more funds before the two phase II report.

[teddy boy1] 12/6/2018 16:50

A nice little tree shake in the last half hour by the market makers. Definitely desperately trying to accumulate as many shares as possible. So predictable!

[teddy boy1] 12/6/2018 16:50

A nice little tree shake in the last half hour by the market makers. Definitely desperately trying to accumulate as many shares as possible. So predictable!

[teddy boy1] 12/6/2018 16:14

The fact that the share price jumped up by 8 per cent as soon as the trial update was announced says it all as far as I am concerned. ! It was then decided that the share price HAD to come down by the market makers (and probably some shorters as well!) and this is what has been happening but as soon as they feel that they have taken it as low as it will go ,expect to see a big reversal! You heard it here first!