European Assets Share Discussion Threads

[123ct] 24/1/2023 17:14

The stock holdings are all small to medium sized growth companies that fell because their p/e ratios got cut on rising interest rates, they are just cyclical and will recover when growth stocks return to being back in demand.

I wouldn't over think this about politics and energy prices, globally the whole sector of growth stocks as everyone knows sold off last year but as the managers say the business models are strong, good cash flow and little or no debt just wait and wait and wait.

EAT fell 30% last year so about the same as Nasdaq and that is all large companies so you may see that when Nasdaq recovers growth companies should then be back in favour.

Psychology always trumps fundamentals

[aleman] 24/1/2023 16:55

None of this lot even have a border with Ukraine. Only Germany and Austria border another country that borders Ukraine. (Poland and Slovakia/Hungary.) As such, I don't see how they are much affected apart from commodities prices, and they have mostly returned to pre-Ukraine prices when EAT was around 140p. EU PMIs suggest the EU economy could avoid recession with fair interest rate policy since month to month inflation has already turned negative (below target!) in November and December , suggesting most of the fall in stock prices is now psychological rather than prospective economic and business numbers. I suppose there is the danger the ECB is overdoing it if month to month CPI is going to continue negative after the further commodities weakness we've had of late, especially gas.


Trust Geographical Breakdown %
Sweden 15.6
Norway 13.9
Switzerland 12.3
Germany 11.9
Netherlands 8.1
Ireland 7.4
France 7.1
Spain 6.6
Denmark 6.5
Italy 5.7
Belgium 3.0
Austria 1.9
Total 100.0

Https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-rate-mom

[north sea boy] 24/1/2023 14:54

I am a long term holder here, but I don't really think that these can improve much further ( say no more than 5-10%) until there is a clear line of sight to resolution of the Russian war of attrition with Ukraine?Best wishesNSB

[aleman] 24/1/2023 14:15

I'm surprised these are not picking up more. European gas prices have fallen back greatly and today's PMI figures suggest input costs are better while selling prices and the overall PMI were looking positive

Https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5493476&span=3


The easing of supply chain pressure helped alleviate input
cost inflation, as did the calming of energy markets,
especially in manufacturing. Measured overall, input prices
rose in January at the slowest rate since April 2021 – albeit
still running well above the survey’s pre-pandemic long-run
average. However, manufacturing input cost inflation has
now fallen below its pre-pandemic average, down to its
lowest since October 2020, and service sector input cost
inflation has slipped to a 13-month low.
Although input cost inflation slowed, average prices
charged for goods and services rose at a slightly steeper
rate than in December, with rates of inflation edging higher
in both manufacturing and services. While in both sectors
the rates of increase remained off recent peaks, the
sustained upward pressure on selling prices in part
reflected efforts to rebuild margins, notably in the face of
historically high energy and other raw material costs, as
well as growing staff costs.

[podgyted] 15/1/2023 16:53

Realize the drop in dividend was a disappointment to some - although it was well signaled on this board.
However, the European markets are perking-up and there is plenty of commentary from US suggesting bigger allocation to Europe.
Discount has gone out to 6% so looks good value at the moment.
Time will tell.

[aleman] 12/1/2023 11:33

Has Europe turned the corner? The averages are starting to look pretty good.

[aleman] 10/1/2023 15:58

The World Bank has just revised 2023 Euro area GDP down from +1.9% to 0%.

LOL. Well I suppose the two forecasts are at least closer together now!

[aleman] 10/1/2023 13:17

GSachs raises its 2023 GDP forecast for the Euro area from -0.1% to +0.6%.

[jonathb] 06/1/2023 08:53

OK y well @90 share price 6.44 says my slide-rule ;^/

[brucie5] 05/1/2023 08:44

I'm making that about 6.3%?

[cwa1] 05/1/2023 07:20

Disappointing obviously, but pretty much exactly as expected pace the comments above...

Dividend announcement

Highlights

-- Continued policy of six per cent dividend on year-end net asset value per share for annual distribution to shareholders.

-- Total dividends declared for 2023 will be 5.80 pence per share.
-- Dividend to be paid in four equal instalments of 1.45 pence per share in January, April, July and October 2023.

[aleman] 30/12/2022 12:21

Yesterday's NAV 97.01p but down a little today. I expect next year's dividend might be 1.45p?

[lord gnome] 29/12/2022 18:18

Sadly, yes :-(

[contango1] 29/12/2022 15:59

Looks like next year's quarterly dividend will be around 1.4 p/share

[aleman] 14/11/2022 20:08

And another interesting chart:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 14/11/2022 19:55

EAT versus STOXX 50 as far back as the index goes. It outperforms in bull markets and underperforms in bear markets. It could be a false start but it has outperformed by about 7% in the last month. (Ignore the different colors for EAT between the two.)


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[podgyted] 14/11/2022 18:10

Its only one week but last week FWIW:-

EAT NAV +9.2%
EMIX Benchmark (GBP) +6.5%
Stoxx 600 (GBP) +3.7%

EAT has been generally falling behind the other two measures in the recent past - I wonder if their investment ethos (quality growth companies)is coming back in Europe.

[aleman] 14/11/2022 17:33

Euro shares up a bit and £ down a bit against the Euro today should see NAV announced above 100p tomorrow. The share price looks like it will indeed test the 200-day very soon, as speculated 2 weeks ago. Can it get through? It does not happen often at the first attempt but it's always good to see it try to, anyway.

[marktime1231] 14/11/2022 16:33

I did wonder if we might see NAV through 100p at the end of the year, and it looks like we are pretty close to that today.

[aleman] 10/11/2022 14:55

NAV is nearly 94p and Euro markets are currently up 2% or so will be nicely higher tomorrow. Is the downtrend broken? EU gas storage is full and there is no significant cold on the horizon to pull it down yet so that side of things is looking promising, though it's early days.

[aleman] 01/11/2022 14:21

It's a year since the share price was so comfortably ahead of the 20-day and 50-day averages. The fact that gas reserves are full and (cooler but) no cold weather is yet foreseen seems to be helping. The crunch month contract for March continues to ease down, over 60% off the highs of August, suggesting markets are comfortable with the gas outlook. German spot electricity is has been down about 90% from recent peaks and is down about 30% or so from a year ago. Ammonia and fertiliser plants are starting up again. If the weather remains reasonable, next stop 200-day average?

[aleman] 31/10/2022 13:47

Has the Madrid Stock index bottomed?

Https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MADX:IND

CPI rose slightly in Germany but Spain's fell from 8.9% to 7.3%. EU inflation is now getting patchy. The Spanish index is slightly lower than June - over the 4 months, that's -1.0% annualised. If Spanish inflation is running negative, why is it so high elsewhere in Europe?

Https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/consumer-price-index-cpi

[ramellous] 27/10/2022 13:58

That was an interesting presentation, could have told whoever was hammering to knock it off though. Only 31 views on YouTube so not exactly well followed.

[8w] 27/10/2022 12:47

Aleman, thanks for analysis