European Assets Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 26/10/2022 19:50

Cash and equivalents at the interims was 5.9p so there should be little immediate need to sell any depressed stocks to pay the dividends. If they pay 4.4p in H2 there is still 1.5p left (absent further significant trading). However, there are revenue earnings that approach 3p per year which reduce the need to sell, too. They probably push year-end cash to nearly 3p after 4.4p of H2 dividends. If NAV hits 100p at the year end and the dividend turns out to be 6p, it will be nearly half covered by next year's income and only need a slightly more than 3p dip into cash reserves - and less if NAV is lower. That cash looks to be there. In other words, a likely level of dividend for next year is likely to be already about covered before any stock sales are needed (again, absent any singificant trading in the meanwhile) .

One other point to consider. Gas for hour-ahead delivery to Europe fell BELOW ZERO on Monday. LNG tankers are queueing to deliver soon at moderately elevated - but more than halved - November prices but can't as the EU system is full up. There is no gas shortage - just infrastructure and cooperation issues which seem to be slowly improving. The Netherlands Nov gas price has fallen to 99 Euros/MWh from 350 but it's less than half that in Spain and Portugal where there is less need and limited capacity to pipe to the rest of Europe. The reserve shortages and other outages are now patchy. EU electricity generation only uses 15% gas and falling - and the system is packed. French nuclear is slowly coming back on line, increasing spare capacity and allowing more substitution. It's raining again after the drought and the hydro generation outlook is improving a bit. It's all stacking up to be not bad at all unless there is a big cold snap but they might manage even then and any problems might be relatively localised. It's not entirely clear how it will work out but prices have fallen greatly and the outlook has improved greatly. It's still uncertain but looking far better than the low point in August when a series of events indicated a possible crisis brewing. EU shares and bond yields do not really reflect the energy/inflation outlook improvement but are starting to respond a bit. They probably have a bit of catching up to do unless there is a cold snap soon and national self-interest starts getting in the way again. It looks like they will probably muddle through and the inflationary pressures will reverse - but nothing is certain. Such is life.



I topped up recently at 84p+. Apart from the above, inflation was over 10% in the past year. If things normalise to something like how they were next year then, all things being equal, NAV should be over 10% higher. This goes for lots of shares. Some are cheaper than you think at first glance when you look at charts.

[marktime1231] 26/10/2022 18:01

Too early to know or say if we have seen "the" bottom, there have been several possible bottoms so far in 2022. I do hope so though, mighty relieved to see NAV back above 90p, and everything is crossed praying for a recovery to 100p+ by year end.

Looking forward to the dividend landing on Monday, but I am so overweight now I doubt I will be reinvesting here for a prospective 6% yield when there are 8-9% yields available.

[8w] 26/10/2022 17:58

After the drawdown experienced by EAT over the past year I wonder how much damage is done by selling stocks at depressed prices to meet the 6% dividend target?

[aleman] 26/10/2022 15:02

It's trying to break the downtrend. EU markets are up again today near the close.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[aleman] 26/10/2022 14:47

NAV gone over 90p.

I'm beginning to wonder if these have bottomed, as the 50-day tries to level out for the first time after over a year of falling. Top to bottom, EAT shares have fallen 51.2%. Add in inflation over those 11 months and a real fall of 55-56% sounds like a possibly completed bear market. Why would it have turned? EU energy prices have collapsed after warnings they would double again from what actually turned out to be the summer peak. The main driver of inflation this year has almost completely reversed since August and energy prices are pretty much back to where they were a year ago. (Spots below and futures a bit higher - but falling.) Should EAT's price also return to year ago levels as this feeds through?

[aleman] 05/10/2022 09:15

50-day getting closer to the 200-day. We could be getting into top-up territory.

[cwa1] 28/9/2022 06:15

October Quarterly Dividend

European Assets Trust PLC ("the Company") announces that a dividend of 2.2 pence per share will be paid on 31 October 2022 to shareholders on the register on 7 October 2022, having an ex-dividend date of 6 October 2022.

[jfinvestments] 31/8/2022 11:36

Getting closer to where I am seeing the worthwhile risk. But at current NAV (30/8/22 - 95.69p) you are probably looking at 1.4p per share. 30% drop in dividend or so? It is very much for the longer term now. When this does get back to 2p per share it will be worth the investment, but feels it could be a while off.On the positive side, EU is looking closer to filling the reserves for winter. They are looking at energy pricing for consumers too. Negatives: war still on going, energy war is fully taking place. Gazprom cutting supply for three days. This will happen as things go forward and the winter gets closer Reports of energy limiting/blackouts are still very much in consideration. Rates about to rise. Has Cosh bought any energy based holdings recently?

[jfinvestments] 24/8/2022 15:04

I am seeing no news to change my mind that this is worth buying in bulk just yet. The energy crisis and euro instability is just too much for now. I'll top up, but I think low 80p could happen or lower if there's a crash. I'm going to top up monthly but I'm not buying anything big yet.

[scrwal] 24/8/2022 11:45

I sold a couple of weeks ago taking a loss but was looking to reinvest short term elsewhere. The continued fall has vindicated my decision.
If my short term plan works I may reinvest back in.
The widening discount is ideal for buying since the divi is 6% of NAV.

Seeing this was 140.25p on 4th Jan this has been a bad year.

[marktime1231] 24/8/2022 11:33

In again at under 88p, to go again I would have to sell something at a disappointing loss. The discount and recovery opportunity here is now so deep I might be tempted to do just that.

[marktime1231] 17/8/2022 11:29

A bit puzzled by yesterday's first NAV bulletin, and by the discount still widening. Determined to add another big chunk before October, anything in the 80's would be irresistable.

[jfinvestments] 16/8/2022 09:20

I hope it's a good amount! As we need this NAV to be stable at year end!

[aleman] 16/8/2022 08:01

Heavy rain is predicted over the Rhine's catchment this week.

[jfinvestments] 12/8/2022 12:33

I am firmly of the belief that this share price has a greater probability of hitting the recent lows than it getting to All time highs or even above Nav in the next quarter. I think the war in Ukraine is still happening, countries hitting recession, inflation, but energy shortages are the primary concern. Added issue: The heatwaves are causing the Rhine to be at lower levels therefore allowing less transport of goods including fuel (particularly important given Germany's coal plan). Nations preparing for organised blackouts. Saying that though, I am riding out this shorter term, I will keep topping up below 100p and add below 88p. There is still one good dividend left of 2.2p, and I hope that the nav remains at the 100p mark (although this will disappoint me, it is still 6%).

[marktime1231] 12/8/2022 10:17

Strange divergence here the EAT discount is widening even though NAV appears to be firming above 100p etc. Looking to put myself in cash to take advantage if the share price drifts again.

[jfinvestments] 06/8/2022 19:09

It's currently 2.2p , but the nav was 101p from when I looked end of the week. There is a bit of a recovery for the time being as people buy back some of the oversold growth.

[kenmitch] 06/8/2022 10:53

Brucie5.

EAT dividend policy is 6% of NAV at year end.

Current NAV is around £1 so assuming little change that would mean a cut from 8p a year to 6p and 1.5p quarterly against current 2p. Still not bad, and with increases likely again as eventually (we hope) NAV rises significantly again.

[jfinvestments] 04/8/2022 13:18

You never can tell where the bottom is, very true. But I think the energy issues in eurozone will mean things are not there just yet. If there's a resolution with Russia then maybe, but currently Gazprom output is 40% lower than this time last year. Germany is trying to get coal up and running (it won't match their requirements as it isn't a quick process).

[marktime1231] 04/8/2022 11:50

You may have missed the bottom?

Having doubled up too soon on the way down I was happy to grab some more in the low 90s. I figured there is potential upside if the fear of European recession means underlying stocks have been oversold by around 10%, isn't that often the way? And a prayer that EAT drags back up to at least 100p+ and maybe even 110p+ NAV by year end.

6% is 6% so EAT is worth a go if we are around the bottom, and when you think there is an unreasonably wide discount to NAV in the share price

[rcturner2] 04/8/2022 05:55

Brucie, the dividend here will highly likely by cut significantly, since they use a very simple % of NAV to set the dividend each year. The key for me is the discount. I am only go to buy here again when the discount moves out to some extreme level. I have 14p dividend pencilled in for SYNT which is over 7% at current share price, so I think in fact the yield is better on SYNT than here (going forward).

I am starting to think that we are in for a proper "winter of discontent" coming up this year.

[jfinvestments] 03/8/2022 17:33

I agree, you don't have to make a decision yet on this one. I am waiting a little longer to invest in a larger sum. There is likely to be a sell off again below the 88p range we saw recently. I hope I'm wrong and energy crisis/food supply is more stable than than I'm currently envisaging as I could see this hitting November onwards which would mean next to no recovery for dividend.

[brucie5] 03/8/2022 12:30

Yes indeed, also read your comment on Synt. This has the higher dividend yield, no? And the greater spread of risk to buy down into coming recession. But Synt greater upside when we come out, I would think. I hold both and considering a top up, but there's no hurry, and indeed some likely benefit in waiting one's time.