Europa Oil & Gas (holdin... Share Discussion Threads

[currypasty] 01/8/2018 13:01

I think there must be a few panicking shareholder flogging a few before the meeting later..
In my honest opinion, this application should, if common sense prevails, be passed. If not surely it will just be appealed?

[jusmasel99] 01/8/2018 12:54

Dreams do come true ... from 2014 ,,,....hxxps://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2014/01/light-crude-discovery-newfoundland/

"Comparable in size to the Jeanne d’Arc Basin – which has been tested by 155 exploration and 55 development wells – the Flemish Pass Basin has been explored by just 10 wells to date. The Statoil-operated leases span 8,500 square kilometers, or roughly 75 per cent of the Flemish Pass Basin. The remainder of the basin is open Crown land, a portion of which will be publicly auctioned in 2014 by the C-NLOBP. In 2004, the C-NLOPB released a Flemish Pass Basin hydrocarbon resource assessment, calculating that it contained 1.7 billion barrels (at 50 per cent probability) with expected field sizes ranging from 44 million to 528 million barrels.

“The key to successful exploration is the presence of source rocks, and I believe that these basins are on the ‘Jurassic Superhighway’ that extends from Nova Scotia to the Grand Banks and the Flemish Pass, and across the Atlantic to the Irish Sea and the Porcupine Basin,” Enachescu says. The former Husky geophysicist, who has 30 years of experience in offshore Newfoundland exploration, adds that these discoveries “shine a new light on the potential of the Southeast Orphan and the Carson basins.”

And now from last week ...
hxxps://www.ctvnews.ca/business/n-l-announces-agreement-to-develop-deepwater-bay-du-nord-oil-project-1.4028841

Only 10 wells and all this 500km offshore (helicopters have to travel half full) in Iceberg infested waters and over 1000m deep .. makes the Porcupine sound like the Maldives

[currypasty] 01/8/2018 09:08

anyone going to the meeting

[aland1] 31/7/2018 17:29

I have just submitted my comments in favour of approval. Anyone interested in doing so has until the 16th August to do so. The more we can get to do this the better chance we have of gaining approval. You know you want to guys, as doing anything other than this could seriously damage your wealth! GL all. 👍

[currypasty] 31/7/2018 11:12

planners said the facilities and infrastructure currently on the site were not “highly intrusive” and did not have a “significantly detrimental impact on the character and appearance of the area”.

They concluded:


“Given the relatively modest duration of the proposed extension to the restoration period, the lack of demonstrable environmental harm as a result of this extension and the financial implications of potentially abortive work should the extension be denied, it is considered that, in this instance, there are material considerations which outweigh the identified policy conflicts.”

[itsriskythat] 31/7/2018 07:28

Predator RNS's today on a Corrib South exploration well in 2020

[rogerlin] 30/7/2018 15:18

Thanks Jus. As I understand it Inishkea is distinct from Corrib north and so perhaps it doesn't matter what that found anyway, except of course I suppose one of the main risks is that the reservoir is tight.

[jusmasel99] 30/7/2018 12:21

Spangle - happy to settle on the fact that 60p is irrational at this stage - none of us will still be here (including Hugh and his team) if we ever reach that level!

Rogerlin - pure speculation on my part but the well that is 18/20/-7 is a total enigma to me.

I think the gas column they 'found' was below the real target they were aiming for and the gas shows were of no relevance to them at that point because they hadn't mappped it on their seismic. They didn't find what they were looking for. BUT they went back twice to the same area - once for an environmental seabed study and once for more seismic. Hugh told me the additional seismic may have been for calibration purposes as it was part of the Corrib seismic survey prior to production but perhaps they wanted to understand better what they had found. Hugh reckons 40b which isn't much and not worth tapping into on its own but perhaps they were also looking 'underneath'. - extrapolating from what Vermillion has said about drilling deeper under Corrib. We'll know soon enough when that seismic is released into public domain later this year.

All this happened round about the time Shell did take the decision to pull out - the final nail in the coffing in their decision making process was the requirement to build a tunnel to the terminal which I think cost the partners an extra £100m

[rogerlin] 30/7/2018 11:38

Thanks for your encouraging update Jus.

"The Well penetrated a 70m gas column in the same Triassic sandstone reservoir as the Corrib field, but with lower porosity. The Well was not production tested, however there is good evidence on log data to suggest the presence of gas. The Well was terminated in the reservoir, meaning the gas column is a “gas down to”. Based on Europa’s mapping the Company believes that the full gas column may be some 170m thick. The surface area of the structure is some 5.75km2".

Re 18/20-7, I can't see that Shell would have terminated the well before reaching the bottom of the reservoir if they thought it was any good. They had not at that stage decided to sell out. Perhaps the porosity is not good enough?

[spangle93] 30/7/2018 11:21

Jus - without the report I'm speculating about any rational basis for 60p. But it would appear, based on most reports, that they would assign an NPV (or EMV for non-discoveries) to each prospect, ratioed down by EOG's equity.

So either they'd need money to preserve their equity share when any development prior to revenue takes place (= more shares), OR they'd farm down, as you say, which reduces their share of the pie (= less NPV). In either case NPV/share would be reduced.

It would be nice to dream of EOG being bought, but which company interested in Ireland would want the UK stuff, and the hassle of disposing of it. Not saying it couldn't happen, but I don't think anyone basing an offer for the company on the irish assets would offer a premium because of the onshore stuff.

[jusmasel99] 30/7/2018 11:09

Spangle - apart from Wressle we don't have any major Capex coming our way as far as I can see (OK New Ventures could need some) but Farm Outs raise cash from back costs and of course we should be in profit for normal op costs with the Oil Price being what it is. We could end up with 15% of a carried well on Inishkea which if successful could be farmed down through appraisal and production but then again I don't think EOG would survive as a separate entity by then - sold off.

I was also thinking about the amount of money Hugh and William have invested here - they can't realise any profits without either resigning or selling the company and I think selling the company seems the way to go.

[spangle93] 30/7/2018 09:40

Jus - ref 60p,
Assuming some thought went into the number, rather than it being derived in a Friday night post work pub session, it's OK to have large NPV from potential developments, but they have to get the capex up front to generate the revenue, which historically would mean more issuing more shares, which aren't in the denominator (and which usually takes place at 6p/share)
P.S. I'm holding out for a quid! ;-)

[jusmasel99] 30/7/2018 08:19

Thanks for the nice comments .. Its RiskyThat .. 'things outside his control' .. exactly why we have arrived where we are and the optimist in me sees nothing but good luck so far. The delay in Wressle has meant we got back our share in Wressle from UPL against a significantly higher Oil Price (although on the other hand if UPL strike it big time in the Moray Firth the shares portion of the farm out could have been worth a lot)

The Irish energy strategy with Brexit in mind is out of his control as well but more and more comments appearing from the government and energy regulators stating the importance of gas supplies to Ireland. They still rely on peat of all things for a significant amount of their electricity generation while environmentalists have blocked LNG terminals, Wind Turbine developments and pumped storage reservoirs.

Hermana - I wonder too why he hasn't bought any yet - he better get ready for questions about that at the AGM.

Mr CP - I do wonder about these valuations. 60p indicates a near £200m company and while this could be equated to UKOG's distorted valuation it is way way past the point where all of us would sell up and that would surely deflate the share price .. never mind good to dream ...

Potential share price changers coming up ...

Wressle .. history tells us that a successful planning application would push us to 8p and production over 10p - our application should be heard this Autumn and if successful production could start next Summer ..

Holmwood .. while I can't see this happening soon a planning success with the application to extend the timeframe could garner some buying interest from the Gushers .. add 1p

Inishkea .. as mentioned above I think the real mover could be analysis of the seismic around 18/20-7 which may reveal an underlying prospect. That could be huge coupled with the prospect of Hugh going it alone (initially) with a well on our other prospects in the Slyne basin. That story line could start developing this Autumn and if he is true to his word and initiates tender talk for a well next year a farm in is surely a certainty and must be worth £30m/10p a share at least.

The Unexpected .. Good and Bad .. a farm out in the Porcupine? Bound to increase the share price - say 5p a share - new ventures (well we have the subsidiary company all set up for this) - totally depends on what and where and no idea what effect on the share price but it would bring the 'bad' into play with Fundraising which could dent the share price but history again tells us that he is reluctant to do that under previous placing prices so he may well wait until a sustained 6p share price Other 'bad' (well I think it would be good) is selling out Holmwood to UKOG which would raise cash but probably deflate the share price in the short term.

SO this time next year Rodney the share price could be 21p by my calcs and if so I would wish the remaining shareholders all the best as I sell up and finally retire ....

[currypasty] 30/7/2018 07:58

EDR insti buys more... EOG need some insti holders

[itsriskythat] 30/7/2018 07:49

Don't want to knock the nice 60p target, but some of these broker targets are a touch optimistic.

[itsriskythat] 30/7/2018 07:43

Thanks, Broker and NOMAD finncap

[currypasty] 29/7/2018 22:22

Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): UK portfolio strongly underpins shares

Key data
•Share price (p): 4.2
•Target price (p): 60.0
•Market cap (£m): 12.5
•Enterprise value (£m): 10.2

Ignore Ireland and its major upside potential from medium-term exploration. Europa is now trading at a hefty discount to the value of just its UK business, where planning approvals are progressing. Success in the coming months would prove a material catalyst. Meanwhile, the prospects for the completely overlooked Irish exploration portfolio will continue to improve as confidence returns to the space.

Jonathan Wright | [e-mail]

[currypasty] 29/7/2018 22:21

Thanks for the summary Jus.

[guesswhosback] 29/7/2018 12:39

Good post Jus thanks for taking the time.

[itsriskythat] 29/7/2018 12:16

Jus, it was a good read for a Sunday morning.

Hugh's a known hard worker. The time this plan takes to evolve and the outcome still depend on many things outside of his control.

Also needs some luck with Wressle. Lot of money invested there already about £5m gross to the Wressle partners.

[hermana3] 29/7/2018 11:50

Jus, Excellent summary of Hugh's strategy. Will we ever see the day when O'Cathain buys a few here?

[hermana3] 29/7/2018 11:50

Jus, Excellent summary of Hugh's strategy. Will we ever see the day when O'Cathain buys a few here?