Europa Metals Share Discussion Threads

[edgein] 29/8/2018 12:06

Pale,

Well done fella, this one has a crazy low value compared to its peers:



Should really be several times higher at present and then multiples of that after the scoping study reveals the NPV let alone any future PFS/DFS. That's based on the current 16Mt at almost 7% Zinc eqv, let alone extending that etc. Market is totally asleep on this one, so always best to get in ahead of the herd especially when SS is close.

Regards,
Ed.

[hedgebetter] 29/8/2018 11:19

Some wide varaiations on LSE. Only buy now if you think the price will go up. Simples.

[spec7] 29/8/2018 11:16

I don't think the placing was cheap apart from the discount. I also don't think this is undervalued at this stage. These things are worth what the market will pay. The point is what will it be worth, not what should it be worth now and that will become clear with the feasibility results from addison. You buy in now at its current value determined by the market and you hope the market will re rate this on significant news next month...or so..Thats the game.

[paleje] 29/8/2018 10:43

On the cautious side, as it should be HB, good advice. I bought a few yesterday after a mention from Edgein on another board and a bit of reading on weekend.

Current mcap seems well underpinned. The only think I didn't get was why the recent placing was so cheap but at least it wasn't loaded with warrants.

[hedgebetter] 29/8/2018 07:43

That’s a hard question to answer, and it depends on how you approach that valuation. If you believe this asset will be developed to become a mine (most do not make it) then the value of the metal in the ground is billions - and so was the sasa mine that was sold to CAML. CAML bought that asset knowing it would be worth far in excess of the $400m they paid for it - but they were also taking on the risk of running the future operations hence the discount. It also had an OPERATING Mine. Given the assets are similar (although I think Toral will get bigger) then knock off the price to build a mine and we are looking at $250m. Knock off 50% to be prudent and that’s $125m. That $125m would only come about if we get a third party seriously negotiating on the asset.

Working back from there, and pure guesses it’s worth say 30% of that at present imo so $36m and if scoping study knocks it out of the park then 60%. As resource classification improves then I would expect more interest in the asset.

It’s a long shot to get to become a mine, but when it happens it’s big $$$. So far, Toral is looking very good - because it has historic mining to the west of the property,is in the right commodities, has power, road and rail infrastructure, a supportive Junta and a potential workforce. These are all things that reduce the odds of becoming a working mine significantly - but we HAVE them.

I am sure others would value this very differently, and that could give us a range which in itself would be worthwhile.

[kreature] 29/8/2018 00:28

Thank you for the podcast. Excellent good quality snooze. Must have been out for a few hours

[the manini] 28/8/2018 23:31

Hi all I took an initial position here today and may buy more if we get weakness... Hi Adorling obviously know you're in ARS so good to see you in this too. Just a couple of questions for LTH I've continually read that this is oversold/undervalued, so what (conservative) value would you attribute this right now? Secondly what would you value the company at post scoping study?I have my own ideas but would very much appreciate the views of those more knowledgeable in this particular share. TIA.

[spec7] 28/8/2018 16:36

Agree with hedge, this has faced up well today.Good volume and its pretty much held its own.

[andrea152] 28/8/2018 16:18

" LR Podcasts" today on Proactive & Audioboom both scan VERY well.

This team are on the case, and I like more and more their Modus Operandi - particularly the bit where he admitted that JT's drilling results last year were just not up to the job, and will thus effectively have to be re-done by the new team.

Looks like a much more concentrated Ore Body than hitherto thought and could extnd at depth too - making mining much easier to plan.

IMHO DYOR. GLA.

[hedgebetter] 28/8/2018 15:08

Nice recovery after early morning noise. The signal is a share trending upwards.

[edgein] 28/8/2018 12:45

Spec,

You will find that at least some of that buying has nothing to do with the sellers today. I was buying right up to 0.1p. The market makers saw today's release as +ve too as they marked up on open before they were hit with a steady stream of small sellers. Perhaps a portion of them were speculating on the release containing something other than today's progress that's only for the sellers to know. I know it wouldn't seem that wise to sell an already oversold company, I would see that as unethical.

"This is the way the AIM works now. Why sit on an investment,get diluted to hell and lose a fortune financing someone else's dream when you can buy in and sell at will ?"

That's the exact same strategy as most use on AIM and that's why 90% lose money.

Buy cheap and wait, always works, I've learned that from the last 26 years as an oil and gas investor. Chase hype like BPC and UKOG as two recent examples and lose.

"Many people who bought in on expected news 4 weeks ago sold today at 30% profit, not bad, i need a 5 bagger here just to break even ...lol"

A profit is a profit even if it is a small one like that, I just prefer my profits to be triple digit and I don't enter anywhere unless it offers that potential. I reckon this one will easily yield that even if the extension drilling doesn't confirm continuation of structure. Why, because the scoping study is based on the current reserves and 40,000m of drill data. I'm expecting the twinning of holes to go as well here as they did at THR which sent that one from £4m cap to £20m in a couple of months.

Yes a habit of being oversold, a history of old management that went nowhere, sounds like LGO, now CERP. New management, new strategy and a complete turnaround is what happened there. Lets just see what happens with the share price and market cap once the drill results come in and then scoping study. My guess is somewhere considerably north of here and considerably higher than 30%.

Regards,
Ed.

[spec7] 28/8/2018 10:57

"I doubt very much any were waiting or speculating for that RNS."

Oh come on Ed, the company puts out a podcast saying that they expect to update soon, it comes a bit later than expected but there is heavy buying on the lead up to the RNS and heavy selling after the RNS and you don't think they were speculating on that RNS ?
Maybe i am getting a bit too long in the tooth for this game now but i find this all so predictable its hardly worth the comment.
This is the way the AIM works now. Why sit on an investment,get diluted to hell and lose a fortune financing someone else's dream when you can buy in and sell at will ?
Many people who bought in on expected news 4 weeks ago sold today at 30% profit, not bad, i need a 5 bagger here just to break even ...lol
Each to their own but this stock has a habit of staying still or dropping on news and there are a lot of people out there making a lot of money on this while us LTH's sit here with fingers crossed :)

[edgein] 28/8/2018 10:28

I didn't say anything about the price holding, it should have been up on a +ve RNS of which this was, it was a +ve RNS not a neutral or -VE RNS. Why should it be up on today's release? Well it shows no delays and closer to the main event, therefore lowering risk. No risk after today's release of rig arrival being delayed. :) It confirmed rig on site, +ve, SS on schedule and on budget, also +ve (maybe some here knew the rig was on site and SS on schedule but just didn't mention it). There is also the sell on news brigade, all too common on AIM these days. I doubt very much any were waiting or speculating for that RNS. Nor would speculators be expecting a Q4 scoping study to arrive in August, not if they'd ever bought a mining company before. More likely those in the placings taking a profit on the small increase on open. Will they be buying back higher soon though as we now know as of today the drilling commences very shortly once the testing concludes.

Regards,
Ed.

[andrea152] 28/8/2018 10:04

All good news, but nothing that we didn't really already know.

Scoping Study on track for 4th Quarter of 2018, as per previous RNS.

Turner Pope Flippers, Flipping out, LTH's buying in.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

[spec7] 28/8/2018 09:51

Ha but you cant expect a price to hold on "just not being negative" when people were buying in on speculation of new news. An RNS is usually price sensitive.
I am not being negative, its great we are on track and LTH's will be very happy but i can see those who buy in because news is expected will be selling and buying back at the end of next month.

[edgein] 28/8/2018 09:40

Spec,

Had it been negative I doubt you'd been saying that. To say all is on schedule and on time is worth reporting as the rig is almost ready to get started. Its the mining sector after all, the norm is delayed and over-budget rather than what the company released today. :) To be on time and schedule for all anticipated aspects including the SS is a big + on how the new management are currently delivering.

Regards,
Ed.

[spec7] 28/8/2018 09:26

Yes but to be fair there wasnt really any news today, just a confirmation of what we already knew.

[edgein] 28/8/2018 09:23

Just as an example SAV have drilled around 16,000m to date and spent over $5m doing so, they're just across the border drilling shallow holes in Portugal. So the drill data here is already worth more than the meagre cap.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 28/8/2018 09:20

The data from 40,000m of drill cores is worth multiples of the current cap let alone the future NPV from the scoping study.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 28/8/2018 09:19

Well if there was a speculative buyer wanting an update then that's what they got. Should be higher on today's news if it hadn't been for the sell the news brigade, but they'll be replaced as the company drills and reports on the data to come. If you are referring to me being a speculator I'm afraid you're mistaken. I bought these on fundamentals not speculation. Fundamentals being 16Mt of almost 7% zinc eqv and a cap of around £4m. That's what made this a screaming buy not just the fact that they're approaching a scoping study. An RNS saying the action is about to start here on time and on budget is buying time in my book not selling time. Selling time is when the market cap reflects the assets.

Regards,
Ed.

[spec7] 28/8/2018 09:01

Now you can see what i was saying about buying on speculation. The RNS is great for LTH's as it confirms everything is on on track, on schedule but for the recent speculative buyer expecting an update there is nothing new so off they go. the real rise will come on confirmed valuation changes.

[adorling] 28/8/2018 08:32

This is the important bit:"The Toral lead-zinc-silver project's scoping study, being conducted by Addison Mining Services Limited, as previously announced on 19 June 2018, remains on schedule and to budget."All looking good for continued momentum into scoping study period.

[edgein] 28/8/2018 07:47

Love it, everything bang on schedule and within budget and lots of news flow to come from the relogging of the 40,000m of core data they already have. Would be great to see this extension come in as it would then be above and beyond the initial 16Mt in the future. But as folks say the relogging and twinning of existing holes is equally important to getting this minuscule cap up. Lots of news flow in the next few months to see the cap reflect the assets.

Regards,
Ed.

[spec7] 25/8/2018 17:15

Yes i should have said "an" emphasis not "the" emphasis.

[hedgebetter] 25/8/2018 16:06

The emphasis is not on further extension drilling although that is a strong part of what they at doing. The emphasis is on re-logging during this phase, and also the scoping study inc. potential mine design.

The scoping study will likely confirm what most of us are already speculating - that the mine will be feasible, NPV will be massive etc - this will then do two things

1. Bring in more speculators who buy ONLY when thy receive that kind of news.
2. Increase third party interest in the asset.

I also expect the extension drilling to increase tonnage and the reason is the block model has grade all the way to the extent of the current drilling. To find zero after hitting the current extent of drilling is pretty much impossible imo.

I also expect an increase in grade through the additional logging and the excitement shown by Laurence. Increased grade and tonnage will light a fire under this share.

I am here for the mine - because intra day fluctuations mean nothing to me. It's the multi bagger that I will hold for - and that is biggest when they announce a mine JV! IMO. DYOR. GLA.