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[2350220] 22/5/2022 13:48

Completely off topic,
Did anyone else see the amazing Lancaster fly overhead (down South)?
I heard it before I saw it go right over our house.
John

[504] 22/5/2022 11:59

I believe that the Ethernity part in the G1 was overplayed initially by Ethernity. Steven Glapa told me "Ethernity provided a nice FPGA-based Ethernet switch that enabled some customization of our packet processing that would have been more difficult with an ASIC-based product from Broadcom or whomever, but rest assured, 99% of the real rocket science in G1 was hand-built by the Tarana team over the past 12 years of incredibly hard work, several genuine industry-first inventions, and nearly $300M in investment"
Ethernity said "Ethernity has provided Tarana its unique silicon-tuned software, which, thanks to the efficiency of the ENET Flow Processor design, fits into low-cost FPGAs. Working in concert with Tarana's radio technology in its tower-installed base nodes, the ENET Flow Processor provides advanced networking functions, traffic control, and management for up to 512 homes per ENET SoC"

I think that there's quite a lot of difference between a custom patent protected one off only from Ethernity SoC and how Steven Glapa described it. Certainly when I spoke with people in technology sales I was told $1000 a unit would be cheap. So maybe it's not so custom and they didn't do so much laws of science bending and it's just a standard FPGA SoC.
Numbers don't add up and this is likely to be a 500 component device so at $150 what's the margin. It's likely that Ethernity hold the supply of components into third party production. Whether they do or not isn't really important it's whether or not those components are available and what they cost. Margins will be squeezed.

[astralvision] 22/5/2022 11:40

No harm in guesstimating Tarana looks like a few $m at best to ENET for a while, imo

[purchaseatthetop] 22/5/2022 11:30

astral....Tarana have the IP and the patents to protect their IP. They have a decade of development that gives them huge barriers to entry for new entrants. I think that the growth has really only just started for them and the IPO will not be about revenues in 2022/3 but in five years time. That is what is so exciting for ENET with Tarana. It is a long burner that will just grow. Maybe we overestimated revenues for 2022. Almost certainly it seems but we were simply guesstimating which is fun. But actually that does not matter too much as long as we can see the future revenue streams.

[astralvision] 22/5/2022 11:08

PaTTIf the % of households connected is far lower than 5%, then that could make some sense of the situation.That the roll out is actually going quite slowly in terms of actual subscribers.In which case the $2m of orders could well be enough for 2022 and give stock going into 2023.But if the hope is to do hundreds of millions of households in a decade, then they need to be getting more than, say, 1m-2m subscribers in a year, otherwise Tarana's projections are just a load of hot air.

[purchaseatthetop] 22/5/2022 10:54

astral....whatever it is and whatever the game being played, I have 100% confidence that Tarana are going to deliver exactly what they say they want to. The BoD that they have is devastating. Sadly, I simply do not believe a word that our BoD say. They are playing their games. However....whatever the future is it can only be really good with Tarana onboard especially with G2 coming 2023. I think that the % of the households actually connected is far lower right now than 5%. Remember that Nathan confirmed to me that the max users on any one BU was 113 for Wisper.

[astralvision] 22/5/2022 10:51

PaTTRe'. I once again go back to my theory that the BoD are simply not going to give anything up front that they might have to back down on again like in 2021. They are frightened (correctly) of uncertainty.'This don't hold water wrt Tarana.The c $1.25m for 2022 is a firm order and will be completed, subject to components, which they inform us they've sourced.So this order is about as firm as you're ever likely to get and is included in their $4.5m or whatever it is forecast for this year.

[astralvision] 22/5/2022 10:36

PaTT
Again from the London meet, the Tarana is not as hands off as we’ve speculated on here. ENET are responsible for the components for the chip set and ENET say component restricted, hence why Tarana ordering now for 2023.
There is a complete disconnect between Tarana’s ambitions and what we know re Tarana’s orders.
The safest course of action is to assume Tarana are massively overstating their case, to get customers on board and to build their IPO case. All imo.
It simply does not add up and not even anywhere close.

[purchaseatthetop] 22/5/2022 10:26

astralvision.....that is what I have also been trying to get my head around. I once again go back to my theory that the BoD are simply not going to give anything up front that they might have to back down on again like in 2021. They are frightened (correctly) of uncertainty.

There are three major chips in the G1. One is ENETs. So, if Tarana are going to hit their IPO targets the numbers of BUs will have to be vastly higher than those figures you quote. We have no idea if Tarana actually have component shortages that are constraining rollout. There seems to be no let off on their new territories etc.

I guess this is a known unknown. However, I will be sending an email to Tarana right now asking them if their development is being restrained by component shortages. I am amazed what people are willing to tell me. Will report back.

[astralvision] 22/5/2022 10:01

Plus G2 set to launch second half of this year.
I hope ENET get paid for that upgrade!

[astralvision] 22/5/2022 10:01

So how does any of the info fit with the info we have from ENET?
From the London meet it has been reported DL said around $150 for Tarana and that they are now booking into 2023, due to the component squeeze.
For ease of simplicity let’s call it c $1 per subscriber to ENET.

If the eventual aim is hundreds of millions of subscribers, that should be over $200m to ENET.

What we know so far:

2021, $765k sales. Enough for 765,000 subscribers, but there will be a big element of the BNs go in first and the subscribers build over time. So this amount probably covers a fair amount of subscribers going into 2022.

2022, $1.235m sales, covers a further 1.235m subscribers.

So 2021's orders of $2m are sufficient to connect 2m subscribers by the end of 2022


2023, $800k to date. A further 800k subscribers.

If they are going to be connecting tens of millions in a year to hit their targets either they (ie Tarana) are kidding us or they will have to multiply those orders up rapidly.
You would think the target must be 5m+ in 2023, which would equate to $5m to ENET. Sounds like Tarana need to seriously up their 2023 order or miss out.

Something don't add up here big time!!!!

Are Tarana bulling it up for all its worth, with an eye on the IPO, or are ENET not revealing the true position? Can't see ENET would have anything to gain.

Tarana's global roll out, at the moment, looks like it is component restrained and they are unlikely to hit their goals, on the basis of a fairly paltry, for them, $800K order for 2023. Unless it's all hot air,Tarana needs to be ordering another , say, $4.2m for 2023 in the next few months, to give $5m total for 2023 and potentially connecting another 5m subscribers
7 months of the year left, would have thought if Tarana want to go for it in 2023 then those orders need to be in asap.

Tarana's true intentions and internal forecasts are ,imo, indicated by orders to ENET. Sounds like they are holding back to me. Unless they have another supplier for the chip set beyond ENET, which seems unlikely given the near term G2 roll out.

all imo, dyor, etc etc
atb

[purchaseatthetop] 22/5/2022 09:52

504....fully agree. The 15m figure is the theoretical number that could have G1, not that have G1. It is a circle of radius maybe 5m round every existing tower and all the households inside these circles.

[504] 22/5/2022 09:42

Not quite, so 15 million can now take a service and hundreds of millions will be connected. No way Tarana has manufactured 15 million home units and 120 providers have not connected 15 million end users. It's the industry standard of premises passed which isn't difficult with wireless. Likely 5-10% of those are actually connected.
Obviously this number will grow rapidly and so will the need for performance haul. This is where Ethernity are. They can get more performance for less through cable and wireless. This is why timing of UEP2025 is perfect.
Tarana likely aren't 1% into their potential market yet. Ethernity market is about to open and I suspect that it will ramp quickly as ISPs reach haul capacity at the tower.

[purchaseatthetop] 22/5/2022 08:30

Worth remembering what Prime Movers lab said about their investment in Tarana in March 22:



"The company now serves more than 120 service providers who are deploying the technology to cover more than 15 million households around the world. The platform is surpassing performance expectations, turning customers into raving fans, and putting the company on track to generate massive revenue in 2022 and beyond."

"They are removing barriers for the more than 3 billion people around the world who do not have access to the internet. G1 is transformational technology that will connect hundreds of millions of households to broadband internet for the first time."

So, we are just at the start of the journey with Tarana and it will grow for years and years.

The same story but larger now than the last funding story in October 20:



"Over this coming decade, Tarana and its partners will connect hundreds of millions of households to broadband internet for the first time. We are grateful for the opportunity to be partnering with and supporting Tarana Wireless on this important mission. Thank you to Basil, Kranti, Sergui and the rest of the team for your incredible work thus far!"

So, around 15m households covered so far with the target of hundreds of millions. Quite a lot to look forward to. Weird to have a company that makes its strategy and objectives so clear.

[j arthur rank] 21/5/2022 07:52

https://twitter.com/wispanews/status/1527397121791500288?s=21&t=s3Y0QlkImjkvWgokLHQL_w

[504] 20/5/2022 23:02

Investment in Open networks growing rapidly.

[collywobbler] 20/5/2022 21:34

Even if I wanted to invest in those British pig dogs I couldn't !

[dplewis1] 20/5/2022 21:21

Picocom are a U.K. company though, so probably already in decline. Surprised they ever got established in the first place tbh

[purchaseatthetop] 20/5/2022 20:20

They are in early development. Good sign as others are following the now marked path.

[504] 20/5/2022 19:57

Cheque books are opening. We can expect month on month significant growth into OEMs and Integrators and that will quickly filter down to Ethernity.

[504] 20/5/2022 19:41

Looks like Picocom are going the Ethernity route. I wonder where they got their new solution. However it is it demonstrates Ethernity are on the right track and the market approaches.

[astralvision] 20/5/2022 14:54

Agree with that 504.

[504] 20/5/2022 14:08

Astral I think that the key information is that they turned a custom product with one application into a commercial multirole product. They added additional ports, onboard power and interfaces to account for every type of scenario. This is the first product to be made general enough for volume production and sales.
I don't know exactly where the tipping point is for mass understanding but it's ahead somewhere and I can wait. Just a small buy for me today with spare change. Slowly slowly.