Equals Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 04/12/2024 14:58

In September 2023 before any mention of a Review or bid situation the share price was 5% higher than it is now.

Directors have a fiduciary duty to do their best for all shareholders.

Something has gone badly wrong here as I have made an actual loss on my shares and a huge opportunity cost has devalued them even further in the last 15 months.

[owenski] 02/12/2024 16:55

If this awful debacle comes to nowt after a year when the board could've stopped it a long while back, I'd hope some of the board go.

[pol123] 02/12/2024 16:27

I am not a defender of EQLS in particular. But alot of people dont seen to understand their business and spout a load of half truths

That aside, looks like the deal is sunk based on recent share price action. Which is good IMO as 135 was well short of the mark

[74tom] 02/12/2024 12:48

Yes, and what PER are banks trading on? Barclays is on 8x, so if EQLS makes all it's money from interest income and has a loss making underlying business then why should it be trading on more than that? That would put it at 72p using next years forecast EPS.

[pol123] 02/12/2024 07:34

marcusw, thats how banks generally make money....doh

[pol123] 28/11/2024 15:19

Agree, initial pull back that will be short lived IMO, thats just the market norm. I will be adding on any downdraft. We will also be out of the news vacuum
Growth a rev are real. 6 months on we should be around the £1.50 mark, as long as the marco holds up

[loglorry1] 27/11/2024 22:54

If you think it rises if the deal fails you are dreaming. Also if you think they are throwing off loads of excess cash I think you are also a bit dreamy. The profits are after a lot of adjustments. I'm long and they should scale and grow rapidly but the price will drop to at least 90p if the deal fails. That's realistic.

[zebbo] 27/11/2024 22:23

I agree tabhair, the company performance has been solid. TBH the share price should rise if the TO fails. If it all falls through I would like surplus cash returned to shareholders. As a starting point, 10p special divi
Re the TO, how the consortium have got to this point (i.e. TO Price agreed) and not decided who is putting up what, is quiet frankly unbelievable

[tabhair] 27/11/2024 17:37

Chuckling away to myself while reading some of the comments above. A lot of people putting 2 + 2 together and getting potato as a result!

It's certainly a possibility that the proposed deal would fall through. You can never say never. But in my experience, this is an extremely unlikely outcome. Deals tend to fall through at a very early stage. I've never seen a deal go on for this long, and get an agreement on valuation and have completed due diligence only to fall through.

I still have the chance of this deal going through at 90%. I know the Railsr valuation is a sticking point, but it is also possible that Towerbrook go it alone, they certainly have the firepower to do so. There's also the possibility (not likely, I know) of a new bidder emerging. The company performance has been excellent over the last year, and this type of company is in demand.

In my opinion though, the most likely scenario is the deal gets done as is by the current consortium at 135p+2p. Personally I am buying shares on this weakness.

[nico115] 27/11/2024 17:01

If I was selling a co and the buyers were delaying this long I would tell them where to go .It's been going on for over a year now no?Mgnt need to go ...positions untenable

[owenski] 27/11/2024 16:33

No one was queuing up to buy this so called gem, remember, the company decided to tout itself, and now it sounds like different parties can't agree on who's going to stump up what percentage.

A complete shambles and a disgrace, it also suggests as a commercial operation, this company might not be as attractive as the paid market pundits suggest it is.

The board cannot be said to be operating in the interests of shareholders, it's bizarre, over a year to sort this complete fiasco out and as already mentioned, the market doesn't seem to be pricing in a green light here.

[66fingers] 27/11/2024 16:19

*Sorry for the typo in my previous message, it should have said 'More important, is whether the company can re-establish any credibility within the city.'

[66fingers] 27/11/2024 16:17

I think the deal is doomed to failure. More important, is whether the company any credibility in the city. It's demonstrated itself to be a company that no-one else wants to buy and this will be confirmed once the formal announcement that the deal won't be going ahead and the share price drops in response. Serious questions to be asked of the Board in my opinion.

[eagle eye] 27/11/2024 15:06

Fair point and sorry to ask.
I'm not surprised it's a sensitive issue with shareholders.

[mcl1] 27/11/2024 14:51

It has been a complete and utter sh.t show since they first made the announcement.
They referenced likely suitors, one of whom immediately denied any interest. There was clearly only one option on the table, a sale, so why mislead us by calling it a ‘strategic review’.
After 4 months they then lost a reputable suitor only to be replaced by the clowns who are ‘window shopping’ now.
Where has Ian S-T been during all this and more importantly the Board who should be representing the interests of all shareholders.
Truly a textbook case in corporate ineptitude and how to destroy shareholder value.

[eagle eye] 27/11/2024 14:43

Anyone get the feeling this deal might not go through?
Current 116p is 18% below the 137p (135p + 2p dividend) due imminently.
If this was a done deal I would expect the share price to be much nearer 135p.

[74tom] 27/11/2024 14:27

I've gone on record multiple times over the last 6 months as to the reasons why I think they are so keen to accept a 135p offer. It's down to the make up of their earnings and the complete reliance on interest income.

Paul Hill explained his thinking on last Friday's vox call;



He reckons they'll do 12.5p of EPS next year and that 25% of the forecast EPS is interest related (which he puts on a 8x PER) and then rates the rest of the business at 15x. Combining the two you get a SOTP valuation of 158p.

The problem is the accounts don't reflect that thinking at all.

In the interims they disclosed an adjusted profit of £9.1m, they then said further down the RNS that "Interest income on safeguarded customer funds rose to £9.6 million".

So that means that the underlying business excluding interest income lost £0.5m

So what figures is Paul Hill looking at? It certainly beats me.

[earwacks] 25/11/2024 14:30

After last results and next year’s forecast, I find it really hard to understand why the board are even considering such a derisory offer. Should have been kicked in to touch after the first two parties pulled out. The consortium are apparently in disagreement about the value of the business of one of the consortium. It’s like a takeover of one of the consortium trying to takeover the whole of Equals. absolutely bonkers. Hopefully even if they do come to an agreement The board will reject the bid with a little pressure from shareholders.

[66fingers] 23/11/2024 01:03

Paul Hill and Paul Scott talk about Equals at around 44m 40s

[swiss paul] 21/11/2024 21:31

Wonder what these guys think about representing ALL shareholders

Alan Hughes Non-Executive Chairman
Sian Herbert Non-Executive Director
Christopher Bones Non-Executive Director

[ltinvest] 21/11/2024 09:03

I guess there are potential questions whether they will get shareholder approval considering the financial performance of the company. Perhaps Railsr financial performance has worsened in this time leading to whatever they have put on the table being worth less hence the issue with the consortium having financing but disagreeing on the stakes each will hold. If this deal does fall through I would expect the price to drop back in the short term in which case I would load up the truck so to speak. All speculation of course I have no real idea of what's going on.

[shallwe] 21/11/2024 08:44

Interesting article in The Times, I couldn't have put it better. I think that the takeover panel should also explain themselves as well as the bod.Something is very fishy. With various financial analysis and journalists all coming out with a fair value of 165-175p over the previous two years, then trying to sell the company for 135p (+special div), something isn't quite adding up.

[owenski] 21/11/2024 08:34

Disingenuous management as far as I'm concerned.

[cp42kx07] 21/11/2024 08:29

Truly a shocking situation that undermines trust in both the company's management and the regulators. The current offer price appears laughable given the performance and prospects of the business.