Equals Share Discussion Threads

[carcosa] 19/11/2024 10:31

The latest "put up or shut up" (PUSU) deadline was unusually extended by only 21 days, rather than the typical 28. Coupled with a marginally improved offer of 137p per share and the statement that the bidder has "completed its due diligence and is advancing necessary transaction documentation," this provided sufficient confidence for many financial commentators to assert their belief that the deal is likely to proceed.

However, the current PUSU deadline expires tomorrow. It strikes me that aligning a PUSU expiration date precisely with the formal presentation of an offer is neither necessary nor likely. As such, I anticipate either another PUSU extension or confirmation that an offer will not materialise.

Given the limited upside—assuming an offer is confirmed, the risk premium suggests a share price of 133-134p, reflecting a 5% gain over the current mid-price—I am surprised that retail investors are holding on. This suggests they may be expecting a further improvement to the offer?

[loglorry1] 18/11/2024 12:56

@Slogsweep you'd have been better off buying crypto and many other things but hindsight is a wonderful thing. As long as the deal completes you'll have done well.

[masurenguy] 18/11/2024 12:52

Equals (EQLS)

Equals has received a cash offer from a consortium led by private equity firm JC Flowers and Tower Brook Capital. The initial 135p share offer valued the fintech group at £276m. This was sweetened with a £4m special dividend. Equals recently paid a 1p interim dividend from its £28.3m net cash pile. With shares offering a 14.5% upside to the indicative 137p take-out price, “there is an opportunity to make a quick-fire gain”. Buy (125p).

Investors’ Chronicle

[slogsweep] 14/11/2024 11:31

Looking back over the last year I'd have been better off selling EQLS and buying MEGP and GFRD. Even if the deal comes off at 135 share price growth over year will be only be 18% plus about 4% in divvy including 2% in the deal.

[slogsweep] 14/11/2024 11:16

FIN looks good bought last year at 12p and added later. If you are looking for a steady performer(40% pa share price growth for last 4 years) with a decent yield (5.27%) try MEGP. GFRD also looks good only bought this year but it has a good long term record share price growth this year 47% yield 6.5%

[westhall] 13/11/2024 09:16

Where is everyone buying if the offer goes through?

FIN is looking very cheap with its growth. 2025 EV/EBITDA ratio of 5, dropping to just 2.7 for 2026.

Market cap £20m. 2026 end net cash of £7.7m, 2026 EBITDA of £4.6m.

[ashleyjv] 12/11/2024 10:10

They usually draw it out to the last second but, hopefully they will post sooner

[ltinvest] 12/11/2024 09:16

De here tomorrow. Usually get updates on a Wednesday. Or do you think it will go all the way to the 20th before we get an update?

[swiss paul] 09/11/2024 20:11

and so said CAB payments!

[pol123] 07/11/2024 19:13

Deal still on and will land next week ;-)

[cp42kx07] 07/11/2024 17:56

Possibly, but perhaps insufficient volume to tell. Personally I'd rather the company gets another couple of years under its belt before being sold (assuming that the "strategic review" wasn't initiated due to a major undeclared problem...).

[slogsweep] 07/11/2024 17:46

looks like deal off then

[ltinvest] 04/11/2024 20:42

Heading in the right direction. Market finally coming round to a deal being done maybe

[mcl1] 30/10/2024 17:28

Nice call Monday morning @neilll77....I'm sure your detractors have apologised !!!

[loglorry1] 30/10/2024 17:04

It's 137p @daveme the 1p has gone ex already. Just so you can be extra grumpy !

[daveme] 30/10/2024 16:37

Although I don't think it will make any difference, I for one won't be approving a bid of (effectively) 138p. The share price would probably have been close to that at this stage, anyway, due to the progress of the company over the last year. A bid of 138p contains no premium for the expected growth of the company going forward.

I will be interested in what management say as to the reasons behind this debacle of a 'strategic review'.

[masurenguy] 30/10/2024 15:03

Today will be the biggest daily trading volume since 10 July when the non-binding offer from the Consortium was first revealed. It would appear that the market is fairly confident that a deal will be agreed on the baisis of todays PUSU announcement.

[ltinvest] 30/10/2024 11:38

Guess it depends how long completion takes whether the extra 2p dividend is worth it or not. But the language makes it seem like a done deal.

[its the oxman] 30/10/2024 11:29

Yes looking a lot more certain here now.

[ashleyjv] 30/10/2024 11:11

It's nice to see that the market is responding positively to one of Equals RNSs, it usually takes a few days for the market to react

[mcl1] 30/10/2024 08:57

Fingers crossed the vindictive Labour Party do not introduce something to unravel the whole process at the last moment.

[ltinvest] 30/10/2024 08:44

Guess we have to wait a bit longer to see the 135p + 2p then. As still not a legally binding offer just a non binding proposal still. But the improvement suggests they are keen to complete. Which is good.

[loglorry1] 30/10/2024 08:40

Todays news de-risks it significantly again. 120p sounds about right given remaining risk and time to close the dal probably 2025Q1.

[masurenguy] 30/10/2024 08:38

"After being told by various analysts that the 'fair value' of the company is between 165p and 175p over the last couple of years, yes it's disappointing."

Just a bit of perspective in relation to analysts views on "fair value" here. When the SR was announced, a year ago on 1st Nov 23, the EQLS shareprice was 110p. If this deal is subsequently concluded at 135p then the premium on that price will be 22.7%. If a special dividend of 2p is added then the premium becomes 24.5%. One of EQLS largest competitors, Wise (who have a slightly different business model), were 670p on that same day and they are are currently 713p. Their shareprice reflects an increase of only 6.4% over the same timescale.

Of course as investors we would all have loved a higher acquisition price of circa 170p but it is the market, at any given point in time, that ultimately determines price not 'various analysts'!

[shallwe] 30/10/2024 08:04

After being told by various analysts that the 'fair value' of the company is between 165p and 175p over the last couple of years, yes it's disappointing. However, a nice profit nonetheless for most of us.