Eqtec Share Discussion Threads

[m4rtinu] 30/6/2020 17:22

A nice steady rise in share price of 3-5% a day will do me.

[gspanner] 30/6/2020 13:41

Juju Ramp alert! I sold ITM too early, but I am happy to have put my proceeds into here, whatever the market does.

[juju44] 30/6/2020 13:34

GS - yes very serious sum

[bmnsa] 30/6/2020 13:29

Remember your oft mentioned 30p outcome for EQT Sid.You are a turncoat Sir.

[juju44] 30/6/2020 12:33

Here ? Today 800000 in one trade . I have bought 1.5 mill in one go in the past

[gspanner] 30/6/2020 12:23

You must have made a serious sum on ITM juju... Out of interest what was the max size you bought in?

[iamgreat1] 30/6/2020 11:31

Placing 0.6

[juju44] 30/6/2020 09:44

I bought more three times today as I could not but a decent quantity in one gulp

[mick sturbs] 30/6/2020 09:41

Greek deal signed maybe?

[bmwman3] 30/6/2020 09:33

Smart money is here!!

[m4rtinu] 30/6/2020 07:19

Gsp - thanks for sharing.

[gspanner] 29/6/2020 22:42

An excellent summary copied with permission of ‘Lunum’

‘EQT ValuationToday 14:41
Great RNS this morning, which I think adds significant value to an already undervalued business. A lot of the detail below is taken from the Arden research report, linked here: hxxps://research.arden-partners.com//view_repos/_7b492cb8-2c31-4893-9545-55e215f40c12.pdf

EQTEC begin to receive revenue upon financial close of a project. They receive payments in 7 parts, totalling 30%-40% of the projects Capex, when certain milestones are hit. For small projects (0.5MW-2MW) these 7 revenue milestones are over 12 months, and for large projects these are over 3 years. So Billingham, when financially closed, will generate c. £50m-£60m over 3 years. EQTEC receive 25% of this £50m-£60m (£12.5m-£15m) UPFRONT, before any work actually takes place. This is the most important part. This payment should land this year, which makes EQTEC fully funded for the foreseeable.

North Fork is already financially closed, EQTEC are due a final payment of c. $700k Q4 2020 before the project is commissioned Q1 2021. EQTEC have a 20% stake in North Fork, and their project will be valued at $20m with annual revenues of $4m (EQTEC stake = $4m, EQTEC revenue $800k p.a.). Agrigas is also due to financially close this year, of which c. £2m of revenue is due to EQTEC over 12 months, with £500k coming at financial close H2 2020. We also have Biomasse in France, of which £5m of revenue is due over 15 months upon financial closure, c. 33% that should arrive in 2021. Same goes for NAPA in California, and Agrigas 2 in Greece.

Designing the projects costs between 2-4% of Capex. What was announced today was that there was a collaboration on projects where two were 25MW Size (same as Billingham). If financial close is achieved on these 2 projects, that is another £50m of revenues over 3 years per plant. This means it would cost EQTEC c. £6m-£10m to design these two projects. This should easily be covered by the money coming in from the projects already agreed above.

They have also said that they had a current non contractual pipeline fo £130m (I assume Capex) of projects. I think it's fair to say that 25% of this could become real (c. £40m of revenue for EQTEC, maybe 50% of that in 2021).

Considering EQTEC only had revenues of £1.9m in 2019, it looks like we are looking at > £10m in 2020, and on for £30-£40m in 2021. Add in the deal closed today, if both financially close that £30-£40m would be nearer £60m. From the research report, 38m in revenue produces c. £6m in profit. Using a very normal P/E ratio of 15, that implies a market cap of £90m, 3x where we are today. Personally, I think that represents fair value and where the share price should be and thats why I am not selling a single share, despite being in from 0.15p. If we close the projects announced today, we would probably be looking at a company worth £160m, >5x the current share price.

Every deal/project we sign from here is additive to this valuation, and that is why this is so exciting.’

[phoenix36] 29/6/2020 19:18

Thanks for that buddy.

I was burnet a bit with sirus minerals so a little cautious now.

[gspanner] 29/6/2020 19:11

Phoenix,

I have been at this a long time to find my retirement via my SIPP, an investor rather than a trader. I have never seen a small company with such a compelling case for investment.

Unique Validated IP which solves big problem, momentum pushing adoption, Good management, good model (outsource the financing), good margins where the projects quickly become a cash cow following fully funded commissioning, outsourced equipment manufacture (no expensive factory’s to build). The management chooses the projects to build, such is the demand.

Look you make your choice where you invest... FWIW I suspect I will lose a lot more than you if I am wrong!

[phoenix36] 29/6/2020 17:22

Hey Crosschris
No problem,not at all I have very little knowledge in this game. And have done research but a lot of it goes over my head sadly. I have a few investments so always looking for advice on here to see what’s going on.

[crosschris] 29/6/2020 16:51

No problem phoenix, just took you as being one of the many derampers that turn up on these boards. Good luck with your investment.

[jakecat1] 29/6/2020 16:40

Have a look at TPG - see what you think. Under the radar and potentially massive.My view is that there could be a few more fundraisings/dilutions here. Longer term though - you should be absolutely laughing. This is valued ridiculously low against rivals -Eg PHE - but is actually much further down the page.

[phoenix36] 29/6/2020 15:36

Thank you skinny, I was unaware that simple people where not aloud to field any questions again sorry everyone

[phoenix36] 29/6/2020 15:34

Sorry crosschris I was meant to post on phe thread. If an admin can delete my post please

[crosschris] 29/6/2020 15:13

phoenix, funny how you've been posting on PHE for a while and now come here talking about dilution and being wiped out. Pretty poor effort at deramping...filtered the newest idiot.

[skinny] 29/6/2020 15:13

phoenix, the shares issued as a result of warrants being exercised are already in circulation - so the dilution has already happened.

From the recent RNS :-

The Company will make an application to the London Stock Exchange plc for the 205,400,000 New Ordinary Shares, to be issued and allotted as a result of the warrant exercises set out above, to be admitted to trading on AIM ("Admission"). It is expected that Admission will become effective and dealings will commence on or around 26 June 2020. The 205,400,000 New Ordinary Shares will rank pari passu with the existing Ordinary Shares.

Following Admission, there will be 4,229,776,247 Ordinary Shares in issue. This number may be used by shareholders as the denominator for the calculation by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change in their interest in, the share capital of the Company.

[phoenix36] 29/6/2020 15:00

Hey guys,
Love reading the debates on here. I am not anything as wise as people on here. The share dilution could I ask kindly for someone to explain, has this happened now or something that may happen? If so I’m a small investor say I own £1000 worth of shares at current value would dilution wipe this out?

[wilsonst1] 29/6/2020 13:53

Yep very happy with the way it's going. DP and his team doing a great job.