Empyrean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[abergele] 05/4/2022 10:32

Price moving up..all change,let the buying commence..gl.all.lth's

[stewart4990] 05/4/2022 10:10

Regarding the CLN is it 50,000,000 less converted 8,750,000 and 18.750.000
so balance to convert 22,500,000.

I would think those will be easily converted and then sold.

[neo26] 05/4/2022 09:15

BuzzOnce this spuds those cln shares will be gone in a jiffy.

[neo26] 05/4/2022 09:12

HelpfullHow is RRR doing? You chum Bell sure knows how to produce shareholder value.

[lazarus2010] 05/4/2022 09:11

Helpfull...some reasonable points there, but what about this scenario...

we will need cash to test the well if they find hydrocarbons...everybody and his dog knows this. Conversely if we don't hit hydrocarbons we don't need the cash...it's a classic chicken and egg scenario.

Now if we don't hit oil, we still have Duyung. If the share price drops, as most of us would expect, we can raise cash on the back of Duyung rather than having to raise funds by a share placing.

The question would then be do we raise funds by selling part of our stake or all of it, and chase Topaz, or do we raise funds to put Duyung into production? The early amounts needed would not need many shares to be issued, so we could keep the 8.5%, take it to FID at which point our stake will be even more valuable, and then raise the cash to fund it to development, again either by selling a part stake or by a share placing...

I don't think your proposals are the only options.

[helpfull] 05/4/2022 08:41

Tickety tock! Funding shock!

The company needs to consider a cash raise at present. Before the drill reaches the target. Funds will be low after paying for the drill and the cyber fraud. Funding will be needed for any testing, if required. That's about $7,000,000. It would be prudent to raise that money now. If Jade is successful a $7,000,0000 cash raise now would be irrelevant. If Jade is not successful the share price will go through the floor (the Duyung backstop will not help) and a $7,000,000 cash raise now, will appear very astute and tide the company over for a good 6-12 months.

Everything is on the line with the Jade drill. The share price is going to oscillate for the next six weeks. Wasn't the share price supposed to be 18-24p by now? Top slicing and all that? Shareholders should beg the management to raise cash now.

Be careful.

[judijudi] 05/4/2022 08:35

We don’t
imo

[starzerus] 05/4/2022 08:33

How do we actually know what is left?

[neo26] 05/4/2022 08:21

They need to hit first then we can dream.Cln are being sold hence share price temperamental. I think around 1.8m left after the current ones have been sold.

[10owen] 05/4/2022 07:23

If Steve's numbers are any where near being right and we have the commercial find we all hope for you will be able to buy him a pub not a few pints.Gla.

[jamesiebabie] 04/4/2022 22:19

He's given us all a little masterclass for free, that's what he's doing.

I'll be ready to buy him a pint or two.

[bluehooperman] 04/4/2022 22:10

The three post I've posted are from Steve LarrattHe's a massive help on our telegraph group, with a world of knowledge :-))

[bluehooperman] 04/4/2022 22:07

As we all know the GSA is due on the Mako gas field of which EME holds a 7.5% interest in the 495Bcf. The Gas Sales Agreement has been hinted at by several parties to be immanent at any time now. To put a value on the asset to try and work this out is an interesting one. With every 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas being equal (or equivalent) to one barrel of oil. We can guesstimate therefore...495,000,000,000 / 6000 = 82,500,000 barrels of oil equivalent of which EME has a 8.5% interest. As the asset is nearby to pipelines it is easy to get into production with minimal capex. So at circa 7mn barrels of oil equivalent to EME and assigning a value of circa £5 a barrel it could be worth 35mn at present or 5.4p per share. Upon a direction going forwards with a viable GSA this should add potentially another £35mn onto the mcap or $10 in the ground value. This is before sales and is only an in the ground value. Once sales and the concept have been seen to be in place with sales than a Nav percentage can be applied to the sales. Dependant upon the terms of this then this is a conservative value.This reiterates the underpinning of the share price at 10p or so with potential of 12p based against nav if production is in short term.The Mako prospect has flowed an amazing 10.9mn cubic feet a day stable and at nearly 100% methane with excellent proven source rocks should be a welcome asset to bring online in an area that current imports over 95% of its gas and oil. That puts a firm expectation of a high gain for the asset and those involved. Production of Jade and TopazAs above if we take our percentages into production with a 49% ownership at 10,000 barrels a day per asset at $50 a barrel profit is £500,000 a day in profit to EME. Plus in the ground values. If going into production on both assets we can assume a market cap, at mean values of 731mmbls in the ground 365mmbls to EME at $10 in the ground value minimum and into production is circa £3bn mcap At P10 figures on Jade and Topaz combined 1.28bn barrels, our 49% stake 640mmbls and at $10 in the ground figures plus NPV assigned could be a mcap of 5bn +Full production figures At mean figures and a value of sale at $50 over the life of Jade and Topaz 49% holding would net 365mmbls x $50 = £13,931,593,750 / shares =£22.81 per share.At P10 figures assuming the same $50 per barrel over the life and 49% holding would net 640mmbls x $50 =£24,428,000,000 /shares = £40 per share

[bluehooperman] 04/4/2022 22:07

Assuming that CNOOC has their 51% they might be seen as a primary mover. I would also ask you to look at Roc oil as a possible company to become involved. Gaz has history with them as well as them buying out multiple companies in the area to build on their reserves in the area and they have a solid working relationship and often get documents and licenses etc fast tracked due to their excellent working relationships with all parties in the area for exploration and production of gas and oil. If we assign a value against a possible takeover at $85 dollars a barrel as a cost against Brent crude. Operational expenditure of around $20 a barrel inc taxes.This will leave a potential upside of over $50 a barrel.If we assign a flow of 10,000 barrels a day (possibly add in a hand full of production wells) break even against upside potential at circa $50 a barrel most companies will want to break even within a year or two against Capex. If we assume recovery at around 50% of the oil in place ( there are multiple feeder channels so will repressurise and re-fill the trap so this could be a much better figure than normally found, this is also an expectation based against other producers in the area) 112,500,000/50% = 56,250,000 barrels at $50 = £2,143,757,812.50If we assume capex on Jade into production is circa £20mn taken into account the figures and production etc around 10,000 barrels a day... £20mn ($26mn / $50 profit per barrel =520,000 barrels of oil to be sold to breakeven divided by 10,000 a day, we could be looking at a break even within two months of the start of production so as these are minimal intrusions they cannot be a major concern or part of any takeover bid. If we assign the expected life of Jade at mean levels 225mn and 50% recovery 112.5mn barrels/10,000 a day is around 30 years life. At P10 values the figure is 100mmbls net to EME after CNOOC and recoverable figures are accounted for. So assuming the same figures the well life will be 54 years.Takeover value. If we assign a value at today's prices against recovery values and 1/6th worth of profits at $50 a barrel profit. At mean figures We come with a value of £695,676,312.50/shares =87p At P10 values the figure is £1,252,217,362/shares = £2.05Topaz takeover.At mean figures 506mmbls @50% recoverable and our 49% share. We have a well life of 70 years. If we assume a 1/6th as a takeover value £1,607,235,208/shares or £2 a share. At P10 figures 891mmbls @50% recoverable 50% ownership, 10,000 barrels a day is a life of 122 years (I would expect multiple production wells to be drilled here). If we assigned a value against this as a takeover £8,490,394,687/ 1/6th /shares = £10.60 a share.So to summarise at mean values Jade and Topaz could be worth circa £3 a share.At P10 values £12 a share.With no value assigned to any other assets

[bluehooperman] 04/4/2022 22:06

Potential figures for near term Post Jade, post Topaz and sell off and into production.I am going to use the mean figures for all drills as anything additional will be a bonus, I will also include a figure for P10 lest we forget the majority of drills in the region have hit their P10 targets plus. This also assumes that the drills hit commercially viable oil.Realistically we are looking at in the ground figures to assign a value to EME pre production. There is also an overlap of derisking against Topaz to consider. The independent analysis done by Gaffney Cline associates puts in place 506mmbls at Topaz. I will assign again a buy out of 51% and add a 5% derisked value against Topaz post Jade drill.shares in place assuming all warrants exercised and a small placing for on going administrative costs I will use 800mn I was going to use 888,888,888 ;)I will also assume costs back from Jade will be used to cover Topaz drill plus income from other assets.The other consideration is what value to assign to the oil in the ground figure, EME themselves have put figures to $5 and then $10 per barrel post flow testing. I am going to use a conservative $7 per barrel. The $10 is in line with recent discoveries but again I am always conservative. Jade MeanSo with Jade mean figures in place of 225mmbls. Let's assume a 51% buyout so circa 112,500,000 barrels to EME x $7 = £601,102,687 /800mn shares = 75p per share for Jade. If we add 5% of derisked quantity of Topaz at their mean figures we will be circa 85p per share. Again that is at mean oil figures.Topaz meanSo with Topaz mean figures in place of 506mmbls Let's assume a 51% buyout so circa 253,000,000 barrels to EME.253,000,000 x $7 = £1,350,000,000 /shares. = £2.21p per share for Topaz.Combined valuation circa £3 a share against Mean targets for our 49%. That is oil in the ground figures. Jade and Topaz P10 figures valuation Assuming the above figures but based against P10 estimates.Jade P10So with Jade P10 figures in place of 395mmbls, Let's assume a 51% buyout so circa 197,500,000 barrels to EME x $7 = £1,050,000,000 /shares = 131p per share for Jade. If we add 5% of derisked quantity of Topaz at their mean figures we will be circa 145p per share.Topaz P10So with Topaz P10 figures in place of 891mmbls Let's assume a 51% buyout so circa 445,500,000 barrels to EME x $7 = £2,377,000,000 /sshares = £3 per share for Topaz. Post Jade discoveryTwo scenarios are a total buy out before production of Jade or into production. Buy out scenarios. With oil in demand from China and near term production being a very realistic scenario based against nearby commercial discoveries Jade could be productive in under 18months. This is very attractive to any major that can see the potential value from setting up the field and into a relatively low risk and capex project

[buzzzzzzzz] 04/4/2022 17:51

I would not be surprised if we get Jade touchdown before the Duyung GSA the way things are going!!

[buzzzzzzzz] 04/4/2022 17:16

It will be the convertible loan holders feeding the market.

So far 26,750,000 shares have been converted reducing the 4m owed to £1.8m

That means potentially another 22,500,000 overhang!

[jamesiebabie] 04/4/2022 16:53

Laz - the weather in the SCS only gets worse tomoz.

[jemjem] 04/4/2022 16:30

CLN holders selling imo.
Wouldn't be surprised to see another RNS tomorrow or Wednesday, with another conversion. Be great to see it all done.
Imo

[begorrah88] 04/4/2022 16:23

Well at least we know it is none of the placees that have been doing all this selling. Toon was quite emphatic in his anger at the temerity of that suggestion!Must just be those pesky pi's again.;-)