Empyrean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[safiande] 22/3/2022 12:40

This is a statement from today´s Cenkos report on Jade but which applies equally to Mako:-

"Early stage oil and gas companies normally expect the most dramatic value uplift for a project to occur between first resource discovery and project FID."

Current FID for Mako is H2 / early 2023. So as mentioned by Toon it is possible that EME might be targeting a sale this year pre FID if they plan to exit before development.

First major step is of course execution of the GSAs.
Eight days ago Gaz mentioned signature within a fortnight to a month. Also backed up by Coro.

This is an extract from the body of the report in addition to the opening para provided by Jem in relation to the GSA:-

"Negotiating A Gas Sales Agreement At A Time Of Record Gas Prices.

Providing downside protection to Empyrean’s high impact oil exploration programme is the Company’s 8.5% interest in the Mako gas field. At 495Bcf, the field is the largest undeveloped gas discovery in the prolific West Natuna basin, and is strategically located in close proximity to the ‘gas hungry’ markets of Singapore and Indonesia. The current focus at Mako is the securing of a gas sales agreement – essential for the commercialisation of the project and for Empyrean to realise value. The timing couldn’t be better, with South East Asian gas prices increasing 61% since the start of 2022 and 5.6x year-on-year.
A long-term gas sales agreement has the advantage of providing the contractor with line of sight on revenues and cashflow, whilst also insulating the contractor from commodity price volatility, "

[blakieboy7] 22/3/2022 11:35

Just saw this fwiw - htTps://twitter.com/rosolanor/status/1506227529736232965?s=28

[abergele] 22/3/2022 11:33

Soggy,,
Good lad your getting the averages better now,,,
I thank goodness was'nt about here in the very high times over a pound,but have held loses from 22p and all points lower,
Never mind,,we shall be rewarded one day,,,good luck to you,and all Lth's

[soggy] 22/3/2022 11:13

See this going up thing...I must say, I like it a lot more than the going down thing the share price seems to do so often!

I still have a small tranche from the £1.50 days, and just noticed a tranche in my ISA from 24p. Fortunately I've got a good wadge from below this level...

[bushman1] 22/3/2022 11:03

Many thanks Blakieboy ;


Empyrean Energy Plc One of the Highest Impact Wells of 2022.

Empyrean has secured a rig slot for the drilling of the Jade exploration well in Block 29/11, offshore China.

The NH9 drilling rig is anticipated to become available in late March or mid-April, with drilling to commence in early to mid-April.

The well is targeting 225mmbbls of mean oil in place in a world class conventional oil target, with Empyrean assigning the well a 41% internal geological chance of success (GCoS).

It is anticipated that the Jade prospect will take c26 days to reach total depth (TD), with the testing of any oil column encountered expected to take a further 14 days.

Jade is the first of three identified prospects within Block 29/11, which have an aggregate mean in place potential of 884mmbbls.

A discovery at Jade would remove any residual geological risk, whilst also increasing the commercial chance of success, leading to an estimated 3.6x increase in our risked mean oil in place Jade NPV10 to 47.8p.

Further, as Empyrean delineates and develops any discovery, the potential risk decreases to the point of first production, where there is 0% risk.

Unrisked, our NPV10 of the Jade prospect is 112.4p.

In the P10 oil in place upside case, a discovery would increase our risked NAV to 81.6p, whilst our unrisked valuation would increase to 193p.

At the P10 volume, discoveries at both Jade and Topaz (Empyrean’s other drill-ready prospect in Block 29/11) would lead to an increase in our NPV10 to an aggregate 185.6p, increasing to 452.1p, unrisked.

[blakieboy7] 22/3/2022 10:54

Bushman, Jemjem posted more detail earlier this morning

[bushman1] 22/3/2022 10:47

36jay Many thanks for posting. Would you also be able to post the link please ?

[blakieboy7] 22/3/2022 10:40

Bottoms up!!

[36jay] 22/3/2022 10:40

452p unrisked.Great broker notes.
Price: 8.20
Strong Buy
RE: New Brokers noteToday 09:34
Substantial Re-Rating Potential On Success: Starting from 13p to 47p. This then goes Bananas and into £Pounds. DYOR

We value the Jade prospect using an NPV of the forecast field net cash flows – as we do for the rest of Empyrean’s portfolio. We apply both ageological (41%) and commercial (30%) risk weighting to the Jade prospect to come to our
13.3p risked valuation.

[bluehooperman] 22/3/2022 10:39

Will 9p be the old 8p support level?

[cmackay] 22/3/2022 10:38

I think we have definitely seen the bottom here lol

Well held, holders

[kir] 22/3/2022 10:21

I look forward to mid April start drilling date. That would mean there is more oil drilling success in the south china sea.

[blakieboy7] 22/3/2022 09:56

Up up up!!

[bluehooperman] 22/3/2022 09:53

How things change sooooo quickly :-D

[lazarus2010] 22/3/2022 09:20

Pro---thanks for the link, much appreciated. The great thing about the potential valuation up to nearly £5/share is that it at least gives an indication of what it could be worth to the eventual buyer and hence gives a yardstick for potential sale price. If potential is £5 once in production, then a 100p share price target is not out of the question...aimho dyor niai

[abergele] 22/3/2022 09:10

Why don't they buy and hold,then they could see how high this can go,
not 100k in and 100k out each day..bahhh

[cashandcard] 22/3/2022 09:02

Very promising at the P10 risk levels for both Jade and Topaz. Time for the drillbit to tell us the rest.Cash

[jemjem] 22/3/2022 08:46

I think any reference to development and production is merely an indication as to what this Block could be worth - to whoever owns it at the time. The more it gets delineated, the more the value increases.
Imo

[pro_s2009] 22/3/2022 08:45

Download link for the Cenkos note on EME if you want to download the PDF.



.

[los ricos] 22/3/2022 08:42

solfire

it will always be a wide spread until it takes off and becomes more known to those with DMA.

[los ricos] 22/3/2022 08:41

Thanks JJ

But, re "Further, as Empyrean delineates and develops any discovery...."

will EME develop it (assuming Chinese take the 51%, so leaving us with 49%)? or remain as an explorer as mentioned by TK in the past?