Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 27/9/2009 23:46

September 24 – Bloomberg (Kartik Goyal): "India's merchandise exports dropped 19.7% in August from a year earlier... That compares with an average 30% slide in the six months through July."

[briarberry] 27/9/2009 13:00

1930s - lets hope this doesn't happen again...



When the bear market rally died, bonds spiked back up for the final time before the great bond crash.

Whats interesting here is bonds crashed in 1932 at the same time that equities did. The lows in the stock market occurred in 1932. So why didn't we see another flight back to the safety in bonds in 1932 as stocks were crashing?

The reasons were two fold: Liquidity concerns and fears around inflation as a result of massive government stimulus.

[briarberry] 26/9/2009 17:40

Dysprosium + Terbium

While some of the 17 rare-earth elements are actually fairly common, the most sought-after elements for high-tech applications are indeed rare, like dysprosium and terbium.

[briarberry] 26/9/2009 12:27

Housing Crash to Resume on 7 Million Foreclosures, Amherst Says

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.

The "huge shadow inventory," reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.

[briarberry] 26/9/2009 11:10

Euro-Zone Private Sector Lending Cools Sharply

By Nina Koeppen Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Lending to the euro-zone private sector cooled sharply in August, indicating that financing constraints for companies and households pose a threat to the area's economic recovery.

The annual growth rate of private-sector loans slowed to a new record low of 0.1% in August from a revised rate of 0.7% in July, data from the European Central Bank showed Friday.
...
The ECB data showed that the annual growth rate of loans to non-financial companies decreased sharply, to 0.7% in August from 1.6% in July.

Loans to euro-zone households fell at an annual rate of 0.2% in August after being flat in July.

The annual growth rate of broad M3 money supply declined to 2.5% in August from 3.0% in July - the lowest M3 growth rate since the creation of the single currency.

[briarberry] 25/9/2009 23:33

CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (AP) -- U.S. regulators said total losses from large loans at banks and other financial institutions nearly tripled to $53 billion in 2009, due to a deteriorating economic environment and continued weak underwriting standards.

According to an annual report released by the four federal bank-regulatory agencies on Thursday, credit quality deteriorated to record levels this year.

The report said total identified losses of $53.3 billion in 2009 surpassed last year's total of $2.6 billion, and nearly tripled the previous peak in 2002, when losses totaled $19.1 billion.

[briarberry] 25/9/2009 15:37

U.S. Aug. new-home median price falls record 9.5% year over year. The median price of an existing home fell 2.1 percent in August

New Home Sales - Level 429 K. August's level would have been below July's level were it now for a downward revision with July now reading 426,000 vs. an initial 433,000.

Durable Goods Orders - New Orders - Yr/Yr Change -20.2 % (was -22.8%)

Industrial orders in the EU rose 1.6% MoM, but fell 24.9% YoY

[briarberry] 24/9/2009 16:26

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's exports fell for an 11th month in August as the economic recovery struggled to gain traction.

Shipments abroad dropped 36 percent from a year earlier compared with a 36.5 percent decline in July, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. From a month earlier, exports fell 0.7 percent, the second straight decrease.

[briarberry] 23/9/2009 23:03

Fed - so they have another $393 billion MBS (by March), $11 billion treasuries, $71 billion agencies to buy (to print money for). Added together that's $475 bn left out of the $1750 bn total announced. $1275 bn already done (already printed).


The Fed maintained its $300 billion Treasury-buying program, set to end in late October. The Fed has just $11 billion available for such purchases left under that program, according to Cantor Fitzgerald.

The Fed has purchased $857 billion of their scheduled $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, according to Morgan Stanley.

The U.S. central bank has also bought $129.2 billion of the planned $200 billion in so-called agency debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks, which finance mortgage purchases.

[briarberry] 23/9/2009 19:20

bailout bubble extention...

Fed extends MBS, agency buying through March

[briarberry] 23/9/2009 01:10

Deflation in the real, non bailout economy - MEW down minus $48 billion in Q2...


Q2 2009: Mortgage Equity Extraction Strongly Negative

For Q2 2009, the Net Equity Extraction was minus $48 billion, or negative 1.8% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI).

[briarberry] 21/9/2009 01:20

The FHA, the government agency so important to the recovery of the housing industry, as the insurer of so many low down-payment mortgages, says it is in trouble financially, and will have to make major changes in deciding which mortgages it will accept in its program of insuring banks and lenders against losses.

The delinquency rate on the mortgages it insures has risen from 5.4% a year ago to 8%. By law it is required to maintain a capital reserve of 2% of guaranteed loans, and is close to slipping below that figure from having a reserve of more than 6% a couple of years ago.

The result is likely to make it more difficult for people to obtain the 3.5% down-payment mortgages the FHA guarantees for lenders, which have become more than 25% of all new mortgages for home sales.

[briarberry] 21/9/2009 01:20

September 18 – Wall Street Journal (Peter Eavis): "More than half of U.S. residential mortgages are being made by just three large banks. It is a stunning change, but is it good for the housing market, and to what extent will it boost profits over the long term for this elite trio: Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan Chase? Right now, housing remains on government life support. Treasury-backed entities are guaranteeing about 85% of new mortgages, while the Fed buys 80% of the securities into which these taxpayer-backed mortgages are packaged."

[briarberry] 16/9/2009 14:41

Treasury International Capital

Total flows, which include short-term securities, were minus $97.5 billion vs. June's minus $56.8 billion.

[briarberry] 15/9/2009 22:05

Retail, Best Buy Co. reported this morning...


Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Best Buy Co., the world's largest electronics retailer, said second-quarter profit fell 22 percent as sales of digital cameras, video games and DVDs declined.

Sales at stores open at least 14 months dropped 3.9 percent. Comparable sales dropped 6.2 percent a quarter earlier.

[briarberry] 15/9/2009 14:08

gasoline & energy prices seem to of had a large effect on economic stats released today


Retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales posted a 0.6 percent advance.... whereas headlines read +2.7%

PPI. The jump in the latest month was led by an 8.0 percent surge in energy costs with food price inflation was also strong with a 0.4 percent boost.

[briarberry] 14/9/2009 23:17

UK banks 'face £130bn more in losses'
Moody's warns of loan losses for industry over next years

[briarberry] 14/9/2009 16:41

The 'ghost fleet' near Singapore. The world's ship owners and government economists would prefer you not to see this symbol of the depths of the plague still crippling the world's economies

interesting photos...

[briarberry] 14/9/2009 13:51

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, the largest bank rescued by the U.K. government, plans to close its overseas commercial-property unit and dispose of the 33 billion pounds ($55 billion) of loans that it holds, a person familiar with the plan said.