Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 12/9/2009 23:44

Is China the next bubble ?

China's central bank said M2, the broadest measure of money supply, increased to 57.67 trillion yuan at the end of August, up 28.53 percent from a year earlier.

[briarberry] 12/9/2009 17:00

Italy, Industrial Production, July: 1.0%
Mexico, Industrial Production, July: -6.5%
India, Industrial Production, July: 6.8%
Uruguay, Industrial Production, July: -4.35

[briarberry] 12/9/2009 15:07

Might GM still go bust ???


Concerned that too few Americans are willing to buy a car from a bankrupt automaker with a legacy of poor quality, General Motors Co. has come up with a deal: Try one for 60 days. If you don't like it, you can get your money back.

GM's U.S. sales are down 35% so far this year. Its market share is at an all-time low. Even the wildly successful "cash for clunkers" program did little to boost the company's fortunes.

Now, with $50 billion in federal bailout funds on the line, and in the face of what continues to be a brutal auto market, GM management appears to be taking a huge bet that innovative marketing can save the company.

[briarberry] 12/9/2009 12:28

FDIC - Regulators closed three more banks Friday, bringing the 2009 total to 92.
The Corus failure will cost the federal deposit-insurance fund $1.7 billion.

[briarberry] 10/9/2009 23:29

Interest Only Loans: Another Time Bomb...

An analysis for The New York Times by the real estate information company First American CoreLogic shows there are 2.8 million active interest-only home loans worth a combined total of $908 billion.

The interest-only periods, which put off the principal payments for five, seven or 10 years, are now beginning to expire. In the next 12 months, $71 billion of interest-only loans will reset. The year after, another $100 billion will reset. After mid-2011, another $400 billion will reset.




Wealthy individuals' Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings jumped 73 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the National Bankruptcy Research Center, a research firm in Burlingame, California.

[briarberry] 10/9/2009 23:01

not much change in exports, imports...

Year-on-year, overall exports improved to minus 22.4 percent from minus 22.7 percent in June while imports edged up to down 30.4 percent from minus 31.3 percent the previous month.

[briarberry] 09/9/2009 12:18

boosted by bailouts...

Mortgage applications jumped sharply in the Sept. 4 week in the latest indication of strength in the housing market. MBA's purchase application index, boosted by the approaching end of the government's first-time buyer credit, rose 9.5 percent for the biggest gain since April.

[briarberry] 08/9/2009 20:15

Deflation, again in the non-bailout economy there are signs of deflation...

U.S. consumer credit down record amount in July
U.S. July consumer credit down at 10.4% rate
U.S. July consumer credit down $21.55 bln (yeah that's -ve, month over month)

June's figures were revised to show a $15.5 billion drop, previously reported as a $10.3 billion drop.

[briarberry] 08/9/2009 18:58

US consumers need a bailout...


WASHINGTON - The Cash for Clunkers buzz is starting to wear off and it seems that some buyers are having serious second thoughts about getting on that government-funded bandwagon, according to a new survey.

The new survey by CNW Purchase Path, of Bandon, Oregon, finds that of nearly 1,000 Cash for Clunkers participants, 17 percent say they have some or serious doubts that they should have made the new-vehicle acquisition.

"Primary reason: They are now facing a $275-$350-per-month car payment that didn't exist prior to acquiring the car or truck," said the report. "That amount, they say, could negatively impact the total family budget more than expected prior to buying the new vehicle."

[briarberry] 08/9/2009 14:01

Hiring plans drop to record low

Employers' hiring for the upcoming quarter drops to the weakest level in the 47-year history of Manpower's outlook survey.

[briarberry] 07/9/2009 17:31

Natural gas, Zapata George in an interview said...

"shale gas wells cost $10 million to find and produce
results in a price for gas of $7 per 1000 cubic feet
he says these new type of gas wells only last about a year"

interesting as US gas is under $3 at the moment

although in the FT they say producers are well hedged, so low prices could continue for duration of contracts

[briarberry] 07/9/2009 17:21

Germany, industrial orders fell 19.8% in July year-on-year...


German industrial orders rose 3.5% in July month-on-month after increasing 3.8% in June, the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology in Berlin reported on Monday.

"The increase is due mainly to large-scale orders for miscellaneous vehicles

Industrial orders fell 19.8% in July year-on-year, the ministry reported.

---------------------------------------------
Building tanks to improve tanking economy - "the increase was almost solely due to a large order for armoured cars"

[briarberry] 04/9/2009 22:18

The New Inflation Threat (Weimar World)

Late on a Friday in August, when most people around the world were not looking, the international monetary system, in an unprecedented move, evolved. We were notified by the IMF of the following:

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said it today pumped about $250 billion into foreign-exchange reserves worldwide, acting on an April call from leaders of the Group of 20 nations to boost global liquidity.
[...]

What this means is that for the first time in history we have a world central bank capable of creating money out of thin air. No longer does the IMF need to borrow money with a vote of all members plus the consent of the US congress. It can simply create whatever amount of money it needs through the creation of SDRs. Not for itself, mind you, but for the world. The SDR has been around since 1967, but never as a convertible asset. That changed Friday, August 28th, 2009. The SDR has quietly mutated.

The decision was made August 7th, in an IMF vote. According to the IMF "global reserves will increase from just USD33bn to USD283bn or about 4% of global reserves excluding gold. In addition, the IMF will start issuing SDR notes later this year (China, Brazil and Russia will be the main buyers). These SDR notes can be counted as part of currency reserves and hence SDR assets could reach 5% of total reserve assets later in 2009 and possibly surpass GBP, JPY and CHF in importance as reserve assets." This is a foot in the door.
[...]

Surplus nations can now provide "voluntary trading arrangements" with non-surplus (importing) nations with the IMF as "broker". This sounds like a mechanism for the surplus nations to provide buying power to importing nations at the expense of us all.

The ability to inflate has now been augmented. It has transcended national boundaries from national central banks to a world central bank. This "new" bank now has the power to create money. Inflation is no longer limited to one currency but will affect all paper currencies in the world. We now have the prospect of a synchronized international inflation. It's not enough that citizens throughout the world had to keep a keen eye on their nations central bank, now we all need to keep an eye on the IMF.
[...]

[briarberry] 02/9/2009 15:33

Factory Orders 1.3 %

boosted by an aircraft-related burst of 18.5 percent in transportation goods

Excluding durable and non-durable transportation goods, orders fell 0.7 percent.

Nondurable goods orders fell 1.9 percent, the largest drop this year and reflecting declines in petroleum and coal products

[briarberry] 31/8/2009 13:22

Shanghai Composite down 6%

[briarberry] 30/8/2009 14:50

Natural Gas down at $3


but the future futures still at $4, $5, $6 per balloon full


UK, LNG will be good for the UK but yeah I guess it will be more expensive than the North Sea gas that we've been used to. We should soon be getting 20% of our gas through a pipe from Norway which is good :) (I guess the UK will need a lot more Kroner)

[briarberry] 30/8/2009 14:44

UK, the non bailout economy still in trouble...

Net lending to non-financial UK companies fell £4.1bn in July, the steepest decline since the credit crunch began.

[briarberry] 30/8/2009 14:11

GDP... lots of people are saying that the USA will have +ve GDP growth in the 3rd Q 2009 (now), as business gets ready for Santa Season (inventory rebuild, bailout/stimulus spending etc)(even Alan Greenspan was saying it would happen)

How much is Santa likely to order this year ? Will retailers manage to sell it ?

(then back to -ve in Q4 2009 or Q1 2010 ???)

[briarberry] 27/8/2009 21:49

US military spending surge

[briarberry] 27/8/2009 17:38

EU, The real economy (the non bailout economy) is showing signs of deflation...

EU loans fell 0.4 percent, the biggest decline ever recorded...


Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Loans to households and companies in Europe grew at the slowest pace on record in July, suggesting the economy may struggle to recover from its worst recession since World War II.

Loans to the private sector rose 0.6 percent from a year earlier, the slowest growth since records began in 1991, after increasing an annual 1.5 percent in June, the European Central Bank said today. On the month, loans fell 0.4 percent, the biggest decline ever recorded.

[briarberry] 26/8/2009 03:37

Japan's July imports down 40,8% on year
Japan's July exports down 36.5% on year
Toyota reportedly to slash production by 10%
Japan's July trade surplus quadruples on year

[briarberry] 26/8/2009 01:31

EU

Industrial new orders in the EU fell 0.4% MoM and down 24% YoY
Construction output in the EU fell 3.3% MoM and down 14.1% YoY.