Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 03/8/2009 13:42

Brazil, Industrial Production, June: -12.4%

[briarberry] 03/8/2009 12:57

India - Merchandise shipments dropped 27.7 percent from a year earlier...


Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- India's exports declined for a ninth consecutive month in June as the worst global recession since the Great Depression slashed demand for the nation's products.

Merchandise shipments dropped 27.7 percent from a year earlier to $12.8 billion, after sliding 29.2 percent in May, the government said in New Delhi today. Exports plunged 33.26 percent in March, the biggest fall on record, according to Bloomberg data going back to April 1995.
...
India's imports fell 29.3 percent in June to $18.97 billion


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some improvement in July ? ...


Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- India's manufacturing output rose for a fourth month in July as higher government spending and lower interest rates boosted domestic demand, a key gauge showed.

Markit Economics' Purchasing Managers' index stood at 55.3 in July, unchanged from June, according to a report released today. It was the fourth monthly reading above 50, which indicates factory production increased.

[briarberry] 02/8/2009 13:14

I've no doubt US GDP is lower than -10% yoy


How is such a misleading GDP report created?
The answer lies in a disturbing mixture of seasonal and hedonic adjustments, imputations and other statistical wizardry not subject to review or insight.



(it's just lies, just another weapon of mass delusion)

Construction Spending - Y/Y -11.6 %
Exports Y/Y -21.3 %
Imports Y/Y -31.3 %
New orders for durable goods Y/Y -26.8 %
Retail sales Y/Y -9.6%
Industrial production Y/Y - 13.6%
ATA Truck Tonnage Index Y/Y -13.2%
PORT OF LOS ANGELES Container Statistics, calender year, Y/Y -15.59%
State tax collections Y/Y -11.7% maybe -20% soon
Railroad operator CSX's shipping volume -21%
Dow Chemical Sales plunged 31%
UPS' U.S. domestic package segment, average daily volume declined 4.6 percent in the second quarter.

State tax collections for the first quarter of 2009 showed a drop of 11.7 percent, the sharpest decline in the 46 years for which quarterly data are available. Combining the Census Bureau's quarterly data with its annual statistical series, which extends back to 1952, the most recent decline in state tax revenues was the worst on record. Early figures for April and May of 2009 show an overall decline of nearly 20 percent for total taxes

Second-quarter net income at UPS Inc. fell 49%, compared with a year earlier, but all three main divisions remained profitable despite the ongoing recession and a 16.7% decline in global revenue. UPS said average daily international export volume decreased 7.3 percent.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 2.4 Percent in June. Compared with June 2008, tonnage fell 13.6 percent, which surpassed May's 11 percent year-over-year drop. June's contraction was the largest year-over-year decrease of the current cycle, exceeding the 13.2 percent drop in April.

[briarberry] 02/8/2009 13:08

South Korea is showing an improvement but I guess that's due to increasing exports to China...

South Korea, Industrial Production, June: -1.2%
Thailand, Industrial Production, June: -7.8%

[briarberry] 01/8/2009 14:26

Wall Street insures itself (yeah that's reasurring)...


Billions in Lehman Claims Could Bury an Elusive Insurer

Capco is an insurance company that is supposed to protect big-money investors in the event of a catastrophic failure of a major brokerage firm.
...
The worry is that the company, which has never paid out a claim, might be unable to cope with the Lehman bankruptcy.

If it were overwhelmed by claims, the banks and brokerage companies that own Capco, as it is known, could end up owing billions of dollars.
...
By some industry estimates reviewed by the insurance department, Capco could face nearly $11 billion in claims but has only about $150 million with which to meet them.
...
Capco was created in 2003 by Lehman and 13 other banks and brokerage companies as a kind of marketing tool. The pitch was that while Capco would not insure customers against investment losses, it would compensate them if the firms failed. Capco promises to provide virtually unlimited coverage above the $500,000 offered by the Securities Investors Protection Corporation and its equivalent in Britain.
...
Brokerage companies used to buy account protection insurance from large insurance companies like Travelers and the American International Group. But in 2003, those insurance companies stopped offering such policies, saying it was impossible to calculate their liability. Enter Capco.
...
The bottom line is, this insurance should have never been sold to clients

[briarberry] 31/7/2009 23:59

Four bank closures bring 2009 tally to 68

[briarberry] 30/7/2009 21:14

6 losses / 14

AmerisourceBergen swings to profit
Hanover Q2 net income $1.25 vs 20c loss year ago
Genworth Q2 loss 11c vs 25c year ago
Cummins reported a profit of 28 cents a share, down from $1.49 year ago
NetSuite Q2 loss 8c vs 5c year ago
Goodyear reported a loss of 92 cents a share, vs. a profit of 31 cents a share.
McAfee Q2 net income 18c vs 30c
Synchronoss Q2 net earns 8c vs 8c
MetLife Q2 loss $1.74 vs $1.26 EPS last year
Disney Q3 net income 51c vs 66c
Las Vegas Sands Q2 loss 34c vs 2c
RealNetworks Q2 loss $1.40 vs 1c
Pitney Bowes Q2 net income 57c vs 61c
DTE Energy Q2 net income 51c vs 17c

[briarberry] 30/7/2009 19:44

bellwether

Dow Chemical for the June quarter, had a loss of $435 million, or 47 cents a share, a reversal from the prior year's profit of $776 million, or 81 cents a share. Sales plunged 31% to $11.32 billion.

[briarberry] 29/7/2009 21:09

Visa did OK but ... 8 losses / 13

LSI Corp. Q2 loss 9c vs 2c year ago
Varian Medical Q3 net income 68c vs 58c
Lincoln Financial Q2 net loss 62c vs earns 48c
Symantec Q1 net income 9c vs 20c
Visa Q3 Class A net income 97c vs 51
Royal Caribbean sinks on loss, outlook
Brookfield Homes Q2 loss 12c vs 33c year ago
Aflac Q2 net income 67c vs $1
Flextronics International swings to a loss
Tesoro Q2 loss 33c vs 3c EPS year ago
Hartford Q2 loss 6c vs $1.73 EPS year ago
Lam Research Q4 loss 70c vs 57c EPS year ago
Equity Residential Q2 net income 35c vs 47c

[briarberry] 29/7/2009 13:34

ConocoPhillips Q2 EPS 87 cents vs $3.50

U.S. June durable-goods orders down 2.5% (monthly)

New Orders - Yr/Yr Change -26.8 %

[briarberry] 28/7/2009 14:09

U.S. May Case-Shiller home prices up 0.5%
U.S. Case-Shiller index down 17.1% in past year

[briarberry] 27/7/2009 21:20

Masco Q2 net income 15c vs 23c
ACE Ltd. Q2 net income $1.58 vs $2.18
Torchmark Q2 net income $1.38 vs $1.47 a share
Amgen Q2 net income $1.25 vs 84c a share
Amgen Q2 rev $3.71 bln vs $3.76 bln
Plum Creek Q2 net income 19c vs 18c
Plum Creek Q2 revenue $272 mln vs $376 mln
Fidelity National Q2 net income 40c vs 3c
Fidelity National Q2 rev. $1.57 bln vs $1.17 bln
PartnerRe Q2 net income $8.10 vs loss of 64c
PartnerRe Q2 revenue $1.27 bln vs $809.4 mln
Meritage Q2 net loss $2.37 vs 79c loss a share
Manitowoc Q2 loss 14c vs EPS of $1.01 year ago
Ambac sees Q2 net loss, loss expenses of $1.3 bln
Crane Q2 net income 47c vs 97c a share

[briarberry] 27/7/2009 12:11

Corning Q2 EPS 39 cents vs $2.01
Honeywell Q2 EPS 60 cents vs 96 cents
Cal-Maine Q4 earnings 43c vs $1.54
Enterprise Products Q2 net $186.6M vs $263.3M
RadioShack Q2 earnings 39c vs 32c
Aetna Q2 earnings 77c vs 97c
Lorillard Q2 EPS $1.71 vs $1.25

[briarberry] 26/7/2009 17:40

High-frequency trading is explained in this graphic



full article


podcast for lazy readers, GS is mentioned

[briarberry] 25/7/2009 23:31

US GDP next week

The economy probably declined 1.5 percent in the three months ended June 30, marking the fourth straight drop and the longest such streak since quarterly records started in 1947, according to the median of 66 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

[briarberry] 25/7/2009 22:46

Is China the next bubble ?


John Mauldin this weeekend...

Can China Lead the Global Recovery?
China is growing by about 8% a year, which is amazing on the surface of it, as their exports are down about 20% (more in some sectors). How can that be? I continually read about how China is going to lead the world out of its global funk. And 8% growth in GDP does seem pretty strong. But we need to look a little deeper.

If I told you that the next US stimulus package would be $4.5 trillion dollars, mostly given to banks that would be forced to loan out the money quickly, do you think that might jump spending and GDP in the short term? Would you start looking for a few bubbles to be created? What about the dollar?

That is the equivalent of what China is now doing. The volume of credit that is flowing into China is equivalent to one-third of their GDP. Banks that already have large problem-loan portfolios are now lending even more, in a very short time frame. China has severe capacity-utilization problems, as trade has sharply fallen; and the US consumer is unlikely to return to anywhere near the level of consumption that was the case in 2006.

The Chinese stock market is up 85% this year, and commodity and real estate prices are rising. And no wonder: the money supply shot up 28.5% in June alone. That money is looking for a home. My friend Vitaliy Katsenelson has written a very perceptive essay for Foreign Policy magazine, talking about the nature of the current growth in China.

"But don't confuse fast growth with sustainable growth. Much of China's growth over the past decade has come from lending to the United States. The country suffers from real overcapacity. And now growth comes from borrowing -- and hundreds of billion-dollar decisions made on the fly don't inspire a lot of confidence. For example, a nearly completed, 13-story building in Shanghai collapsed in June due to the poor quality of its construction.

"This growth will result in a huge pile of bad debt -- as forced lending is bad lending. The list of negative consequences is very long, but the bottom line is simple: There is no miracle in the Chinese miracle growth, and China will pay a price. The only question is when and how much."

I am going to quote at some length from Simon Hunt's latest note. He travels very frequently to China and is one of the world's true experts on the copper market. If you want to know something about copper, ask Simon. Copper, we are told, is the metal with a PhD in economics. If copper prices are rising, then the economy is booming. And historically, that has more or less been the case. But there may be reason to believe that PhD may be no more useful this time around than a regular Ivy League degree.

"The world community has come to see that China is its savior. Growth picked up sharply in the second quarter, but it is based on fixed asset investment and renewed speculative activity in the real estate sector. It is not what the actual GDP or IP [Industrial Production] numbers will show that matters, but the quality of that growth. Money is cheap with loans and credit freely available, so much so that China risks developing new bubbles in the stock and commodity markets and real estate. Speculation is based on the simple premise that prices must rise. Foreigners as well as domestic participants are feeding this frenzy, especially in metal markets.

"The frenzied loan and credit growth is unlikely to be cut back until the fourth quarter at the earliest. It is not this year or next which worries us, but post 2010. What will China do when the world economy gets hit with its next big leg down?

"There is no better example of this speculative activity than what is being seen in the copper market. It is easy for global merchants, hedge funds etc to ship cathode into China and warehouse it outside the reporting system, so fuelling investors' sentiments that copper demand in China is soaring and at the same time draining copper from the rest of the market.

"It is not so much industry which is doing this buying in China, but individuals, financial institutions and even small companies divorced from the copper industry who are buying and holding the metal because copper is a store of value and prices will go up is the common response. We updated our numbers for the first half of this year. They are truly staggering. Over 1 million tonnes of cathode is sitting in China mostly outside the reporting system as a punt on rising prices." (Emphasis mine)

If it is happening in copper it is likely to be happening in other commodity markets as well. If you are trading the metals, you should be aware that a quick drop could happen if demand falls off due to there being a glut of supply coming back onto the market.

Why would China engage in what seems from our shores to be very risky behavior? Because from their point of view it makes sense. It is not a lot different in concept than what the US or England is doing to stimulate their economies. The scope and size are different, but China also has a much different problem. They are attempting to soften the transition from an economy dependent on the US consumer to one that is more balanced. Will they be successful? The answer depends on what they are actually trying to do. You could (and should) also ask whether Bernanke will be successful when he decides to remove reserves from the economy. Avoiding financial Armageddon may be the measure of success in both countries, with the reality that there will be some pain, no matter what.

Who Ends Up with the Old Maid?
But the important news out of China this week was the assertion that China was getting ready to use its massive $2.2 trillion reserves. From the Financial Times:

"Beijing will use its foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world, to support and accelerate overseas expansion and acquisitions by Chinese companies, Wen Jiabao, the country's premier, said in comments published on Tuesday.

...

[briarberry] 24/7/2009 20:21

Today's chart illustrates how earnings are expected (38% of S&P 500 companies have reported for Q2 2009) to have declined over 98% since peaking in Q3 2007, making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative.

[briarberry] 23/7/2009 21:06

Amazon.com Q2 net income 32c vs 37c
Burlington Northern Q2 profit $1.18 vs $1 a share
Federated Investors Q2 net income 52c vs 57c
CA Q1 net income 37c vs 37c a share
Chubb Q2 net income $1.57 vs $1.27
PMC-Sierra Q2 net income 3c vs 60c a share
Microsoft Q4 net income 34c vs 46c a share - profit disappoints as sales drop 17%
Capital One Q2 loss 65c vs profit of $1.21 a share
Netflix Q2 net income 54c vs 42c
Juniper Networks Q2 net income 3c vs 22c
American Express Q2 net income 9c vs 56c
KLA-Tencor Q4 loss 9c vs EPS of 60c year ago
Omnicom profit plummets as economy, currency bite
Broadcom posts lower second-quarter profit
Xerox profit drops 35%, hurt by business cutbacks
Eastman Chemical Q2 net income 89c vs $1.48

[briarberry] 23/7/2009 19:54

Taiwan, Industrial Production, June: -11.4%

[briarberry] 23/7/2009 15:54

UPS profit down 49% on fewer shipments

Occidental Petroleum earnings fall 70%

[briarberry] 22/7/2009 21:07

losses only 3 / 16

Unibail-Rodamco reports $1.9 billion loss
Home builder NVR sees profit fall 19%
Intuitive Surgical Q2 net income $1.62 vs $1.28
Energen Q2 net income 76c vs 93c
Alliance Data Q2 net income 51c vs 60c
Citrix Systems Q2 net income 23c vs 18c
EBay Q2 net income 25c vs 35c a share
Sanmina Q3 net loss 9c vs 3c a share profit
Qualcomm Q3 net income 44c vs 45c a share
VMware Q2 net income 8c vs 13c
E-Trade Q2 loss 22c vs 19c loss year ago
Mosaic Co. Q4 net income 33c vs $1.93
SanDisk Q2 net income 23c vs 33c a share loss
Genzyme Q2 EPS 70 cents vs 25 cents
Noble Q2 net income $1.49 vs $1.39 a share
Albemarle Q2 net income 42c vs 67c