Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 15/2/2011 20:31

S&P500 company Q4 earnings, overall most of the good earnings news was due to multinationals like GM, earnings increases from domestic (USA) business are still in the low single digits...


Daniel Akerson, chief executive of GM

China is central to our global strategy... we want to understand the preferences that the China market wants. We bring our best designs, best technology to China.

...

In 2010 GM sold a record 2.35m cars in China, marking a record for sales within the domestic market. It was also the first time in GM's 102-year history that it sold more cars and trucks in China than it did in the US. GM now has an estimated market share of 14.7 per cent in China.

[briarberry] 15/2/2011 15:17

Mr Obama proposed a budget that will push the this year's deficit to a fresh record of $1.65 trillion or 11pc of GDP, partly due to payroll tax cuts agreed with Congress last Autumn. It is unprecedented to run deficits on this scale two years into recovery.

[briarberry] 13/2/2011 21:28

The Baltic Dry Index has failed as an indicator as there have been too many ships built recently

[briarberry] 13/2/2011 15:37

Bailout boom ???


Consumer credit rose $6.1 billion in December showing, for the first time in the recovery, gains for both revolving and non-revolving credit. Revolving credit (credit cards), up $2.3 billion, rose for the first time in 27 months. Non-revolving credit, reflecting strength in vehicle sales, extended its run of strength with a gain of $3.8 billion.

...

Bernanke's Bubblenomics

You're probably wondering how consumer credit can expand when households and consumers got whacked for $11.4 trillion in the meltdown and their debt-to-disposable income is still way off trend? Well, just go to Google News and take a peak at all the zero-down intro offers on auto loans. That will explain the whole thing. We're back to Square 1; selling products to people with shaky credit who can't come up with a couple hundred bucks for a down payment. Credit expansion is easy when you offer people something for nothing. It's getting repaid that's hard.

(worth a look)

[briarberry] 13/2/2011 15:33

The trade deficit - the difference between imports and exports - hit $497.8bn (£311bn) last year, up 32.8% on the year before, the biggest annual percentage gain since 2000.

Imports from China hit record levels, totalling $364.9bn for the year.

The closely-watched trade deficit with China rose by 20.4% to an all-time high of $273.1bn, the largest imbalance the US has recorded with a single country.

[briarberry] 09/2/2011 18:21

Todays 10-year aution is said to have turned out ok

[briarberry] 09/2/2011 01:53

Treasury sold $89 billion (35 + 22 + 32) today and that's after $62 billion (32 + 30) yesterday

plus 10 year on Wednesday at $24 billion

Total to be sold (inc rolled over) in 3 days $175 billion


Todays 3-Yr Note Auction (probably means nothing but who knows?)...

Judging by direct and indirect bidding, buyside demand for the monthly 3-year note auction was very weak. Dealers ended up with 62 percent of the auction vs 45 percent in January and a long-term average of 42 percent. Coverage of 3.01 is respectable as is the stop-out rate of 1.349 percent which is only fractionally over the 1:00 p.m. ET bid. Demand for Treasuries is slipping following the results. The Treasury auctions $24 billion of 10-year notes tomorrow. (6pm GMT)

[briarberry] 08/2/2011 13:23

More talk of haircuts...


AMAGERBANKEN - $2.8 Billion Bank Failure In Denmark: Senior Bondholders Whacked 41%

Amagerbanken was taken over by the Danish government today. As with the Irish banks, Amagerbanken suffered huge losses on loans to property developers and investors in commercial real estate. But the rescue comes under new regulations which stipulate steep losses for bondholders. According to Bloomberg, senior bondholders and depositors over the insured limit will face losses of approximately 41%.



"Fine Gael ... is committed to forcing certain classes of bond-holders to share in the cost of recapitalising troubled financial institutions. This can be done unilaterally for the most junior bondholders (owners of preference shares, sub-ordinated debt and similar instruments), but should be extended - ideally as part of a European-wide framework - for senior debt for institutions like Anglo Irish and Irish Nationwide that no longer have any systemic economic importance."

[briarberry] 05/2/2011 22:30

A number of people are pointing at the widening gap between rates (eg TNX) and commodity prices (eg GKX, CRB etc)

[briarberry] 04/2/2011 13:32

Nonfarm payrolls + 36K

[briarberry] 04/2/2011 11:06

TBAC Forecasts $95 Billion Q1 Increase in Net New Borrowing

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) told the Treasury that it will need to borrow $95 billion more in the first quarter than had been estimated in the last TBAC report in early November. The increase is apparently due to the cut in payroll taxes, although the committee gave no specific reason for the increase in its report to the Secretary. The entire increase will be loaded into February and March. January borrowing was little changed from the November forecast. The Treasury market has been pounded over the past couple of days as it ponders the impact of the unexpected increase in supply.

[briarberry] 01/2/2011 19:38

The bailout bubble seems to have started affecting prices in the US now too...


ISM Mfg Index

The strength of activity in part reflects rising prices with input prices which jumped nine points to a rare plus-80 reading at 81.5. The gain reflects rising prices for energy, metals and chemicals.

[briarberry] 29/1/2011 00:46

New budget CBO estimates released Wednesday predict the U.S. government's deficit will hit almost $1.5 trillion this year, a new record.

(plus they need to rollover trillions of old debt)

...

Quotes at Davos forum: "The fiscal problem is very serious. The bond vigilantes have not yet woken up in the U.S. in the way they have in the euro zone. Unless the U.S. addresses this fiscal problem, we are going to see a train wreck."

[briarberry] 26/1/2011 16:38

Nearly one in four people in Nevada who lost their homes to foreclosure have admitted to walking away even though they could afford their monthly payments, according to a study released today by the Nevada Association of Realtors.

The study said 23 percent of those surveyed described their own situation as a strategic default, meaning they decided to stop making payments on their debt despite having the financial ability to pay.

[briarberry] 26/1/2011 16:30

New Home Sales - The headline sounds good but it's a record low for December...


New Home Sales increase in December

In December 2010, 22 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for the month of December.

[briarberry] 26/1/2011 11:52

Are emerging markets slowing ???


South Korean economic growth slowed in the final three months of last year to 0.5%, from 0.7% the previous quarter, as retail spending and manufacturing production slowed.

Earlier this month, South Korea raised interest rates unexpectedly to 2.75%.

[briarberry] 25/1/2011 16:13

India's central bank has raised interest rates again in an attempt to curb inflation.

The seventh rise in a year took the rate at which the central bank loans to commercial banks from 6.25% to 6.5%, the highest since early 2008.

[briarberry] 25/1/2011 15:29

Korea Line Corp., South Korea's second-largest operator of dry-bulk ships, filed for receivership after a global oversupply of vessels caused rates to tumble to the lowest in almost two years.

The shipping line intends to maintain operations, it said today in an e-mailed statement, after making the filing at the Seoul Central District Court. The company, which didn't say how large its debts were, is seeking to freeze assets.

Korea Line, unprofitable in six of the past seven quarters, halted its shares as it works to restructure debt. Dry-bulk rates have plunged 58 percent in the past year amid an expanding global fleet and slowing demand for commodities in China as the government works to cool economic growth.

[briarberry] 21/1/2011 01:18

Brazil slams brakes to curb inflation, risking hot money tsunami

Marcelo Ribeiro from the Pentagono Asset Management said Brazil is repeating its age-old pattern of boom and bust. "Brazil is wrongly perceived as the world's best investment play. Fiscal policy is ultra-loose and sooner or later the fiscal vigilantes will force dramatic changes," he said.

Mr Ribeiro said Rio's richest district, Leblon, is now more expensive than New York's Upper East Side, and Brazilian tourists find London cheap. There has been an explosion of derivatives contracts on the real. "These are all signs of a gigantic bubble," he said.

The state development bank lavished subsidised credit on companies to keep the economy humming during the global credit crisis, much like the role played by local governments in China's boom - if less extreme.

[briarberry] 20/1/2011 15:42

Poland + Brazil raise rates

[briarberry] 19/1/2011 21:24

more lower earnings...

Seagate Q2 net income 31c vs $1.03 a share
Seagate Q2 rev $2.72 bln vs $3.03 bln

EBay Q4 net income 42c vs $1.02 a share
EBay Q4 revenue $2.5 bln vs $2.37 bln