Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 03/11/2010 14:03

U.S. Oct. ISM services index 54.3% vs 53.2% Sept.

[briarberry] 03/11/2010 12:03

Interesting comment...


"The reality is that the GOP (The Republicans) will not support more fiscal initiatives and so we are likely about to see a pronounced slowdown in the pace of economic activity because outside of government intervention and inventory accumulation, catalysts for growth are few and far between".

[briarberry] 03/11/2010 11:42

Copper, very longterm...

China is on pace to almost triple its annual use of copper to 20 million tons in 25 years, according to CRU, a London-based metals and mining consulting firm. That's more than the world produces today. Rising demand will create a potential global shortage of 11 million tons a year by 2035, CRU forecasts.

"There is absolutely torrid growth taking place in central China," says Daniel Rosen, a principal of the Rhodium Group, a New York-based economic advisory firm. "It's going to build an Eastern China over again."

China's consumption of the metal has tripled in a decade to an estimated 6.8 million tons this year, according to CRU.

The number of kilograms of copper consumed per capita in China last year was 3.9, compared with 6.5 for the U.S. and 8.6 for Japan, says Jeremy Gray, global head of resources at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. As the country develops, China's consumption per person may rise to 5 kilograms by 2015, he says.

State Grid Corp. of China, the country's largest electricity distributor, will absorb one million tons of copper a year until 2015, according to Qu Yi, CRU's Beijing-based copper analyst.



The commodity bull market could last another 10 years and more, ie higher prices and scarcity. (Assuming no recessions (like 2008) or pandemics).

Plus Brazil, India and all the rest

[briarberry] 03/11/2010 10:37

Republicans vow to cut spending and reduce the size of government...


US Republicans have seized the House of Representatives in mid-term elections, dealing a severe blow to President Barack Obama's ability to pass laws.

Speaking after his own re-election, Mr Boehner vowed to cut spending and reduce the size of government. He said voters had sent Mr Obama a message to "change course".



(how serious about cuts are they???)

[briarberry] 02/11/2010 16:46

Foreclosure gate = 42 regional banks stocks down more than 2% today - this has been going on for a while..

[briarberry] 02/11/2010 14:43

Fed tomorrow at 6.15 GMT

I had thought that the Fed would need some sort of deflation scare as an excuse to announce QE2 - But the markets are expecting QE2 now, so it looks like the Fed will at least have to give the bull a carrot or something. The Fed doesn't like to disappoint?

No doubt, the Fed will get a lot more criticism if they announce a big QE2 without a scare first, audit the Fed etc ???

I don't think the 2 trillion QE3 will come until next Springtime, although I must say that it's just a guess

This is interesting if you missed it...

Diapason Explains Why Hyperinflation Is Ben's End Goal

(here is the Fed pdf release) Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

[briarberry] 02/11/2010 12:07

Reserve Bank of Australia raises the cash rate to 4.75% from 4.5%; Aussie dollar surges.

India raises two key rates by quarter-point

[briarberry] 01/11/2010 19:10

Treasury expects to borrow $431 bln Jan.-March '11
U.S. cuts Q1 borrowing est. to $362 bln vs $380

[briarberry] 01/11/2010 14:01

October ISM manufacturing index rises to 56.9%

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of factory activity rose to 56.9% in October from 54.4% in September

[briarberry] 30/10/2010 21:10

Emerging market bond fund assets...

...this is one of the "Unintended Consequences" of QE. It's a stark visualization of the mad dash to lend money to anyone that will pay you one iota of yield.

[briarberry] 29/10/2010 13:32

Q3 GDP accelerates to 2.0% pace from 1.7% in Q2
Q3 inventories adds 1.4 percentage points to GDP (this should be slowing)

[briarberry] 27/10/2010 14:26

Durable-goods orders jump 3.3% in September

Excluding the 15.7% rise in transportation orders, durable-goods orders were down 0.8% in September, the second decline in the past three months.

Orders for core capital equipment goods fell 0.6% in September after a 4.8% rise in August, a signal that the manufacturing sector is cooling off.

[briarberry] 27/10/2010 12:24

Insiders are selling

The overwhelming volume of sell transactions relative to buy transactions by company insiders over the last six months in key leading sectors of the market is the worst Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, has ever seen since he began tracking the data.

[briarberry] 26/10/2010 23:13

Foreclosuregate...

An interview with a mortgage guru
(direct link)(36min)
(page address)

(funny)

[briarberry] 26/10/2010 15:59

October 20 – Bloomberg (David M. Levitt): "U.S. commercial property prices tumbled for a third straight month in August to the lowest level in eight years, pulled down by declining values for distressed real estate, according to Moody's... The Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index fell 3.3% from the prior month to surpass the post-crash low in October 2009... The measure is 45% below its October 2007 peak and is at its lowest level since June 2002."

[briarberry] 26/10/2010 11:19

QE: The Numberless Oblivion
If you print a trillion, I'll print a trillion – and other instances of behavior leading the world toward high inflation and political instability

[briarberry] 26/10/2010 11:12

Sweden's central bank raises benchmark interest rate quarter-point to 1%

[briarberry] 25/10/2010 19:14

Bloomberg / Businessweek 10/31/2010: The top 20% richest Americans own 84% of the nation's total wealth. The poorest 20% own 0.1%

"Wall Street incomes are surging back. The government reported this week that the real wage and salary income of finance industry employees based in Manhattan rose nearly 20 percent in the first quarter of this year. That surge helped make Manhattan the fastest-growing county in the United States in terms of terms of year-over-year gains in income. www.nytimes.com

[briarberry] 25/10/2010 15:19

Existing-home sales sales are 19% below last year...


The National Association of Realtors said sales rose 10% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million, from a downwardly revised 4.12 million in August.

Nonetheless, sales are 19% below the 5.6 million unit pace in September 2009

And prices of existing homes slipped 2.4% to a median price of $171,700.

(different news sites giving different prices)
The median price fell 3.3 percent to $171,700 with the average price down 3.5 percent to $218,200.

(unadjusted?) Existing home sales volume down to 379k in September from 414k in August.

[briarberry] 25/10/2010 14:45

G-20 - nothing happened ?

[briarberry] 25/10/2010 12:39

Is the Stock Market Going To Be Disappointed by QE2?

St Louis Fed President Bullard said yesterday that, "No decisions have been made. . . If we do decide to go ahead with quantitative easing we could think in increments of about $100 billion . . . and then I think we could give forward guidance [at each FOMC meeting] for the next meeting that would suggest how likely the committee thinks it is to continue these purchases."

[briarberry] 25/10/2010 12:20

Fannie and Freddie May Need Another $215 Billion. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two housing finance giants seized by the government in 2008, may need as much as another $215 billion of additional capital from the U.S. Treasury through 2013 to offset losses and maintain a positive net worth.

[briarberry] 23/10/2010 14:56

Jail not bail... The banksters and mortgage fraudsters are all staying out of jail...


Countrywide's Mozilo settles lawsuit

Angelo Mozilo, former chairman and chief executive of Countrywide, the biggest US sub-prime mortgage lender, has agreed to pay $67.5m (£42m) in penalties and compensation to settle a lawsuit brought by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The settlement came just before Mozilo and his former colleagues were due in court to face charges of civil fraud and insider trading. Under the terms of agreement, the men did not admit wrongdoing.

The civil complaint also accused Mozilo of acting on his inside knowledge of the company's precarious state when he sold shares between November 2006 and October 2007 ahead of its collapse, reaping more than $139m. (139 - 67.5 = 71.5)




And yet they sent Martha Stewart to jail...