Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 23/10/2010 00:20

Four more bank failures ups 2010 tally to 136

Kan., Ill. bank failures bring 2010 total to 138

[briarberry] 22/10/2010 22:06

The amazing Amazon stock bubble
October 22, 2010 10:31 AM

The online retailer's shares are valued at more than three times Apple's and more than two times Google's. And there's no reason why.

Whenever a stock can potentially drop 50% and still be considered overvalued, that's when you know the stock is a bubble. Amazon (AMZN) far surpassed bubble territory ages ago but investors still continue to plunge billions of dollars into the company. If the stock were to crash to $80 a share today from $164, it would still be trading at a significantly richer valuation than Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) or even Research in Motion (RIMM).

While Amazon continues to execute at a very high level – yesterday it reported better than expected sales growth of 39% and earnings growth of 16% -- the stock still trades at a very lofty 67 P/E ratio. That's more than triple Apple's 20.1 P/E ratio, or Google's 24.6 P/E ratio. Even more striking is that the company trades at 2.31 times its expected 5-year growth rate, which indicates that the stock has gotten way ahead of itself. Ideally, a company should trade at no more than a 1:1 PEG ratio unless the company has a consistently proven track record (like Apple) of far exceeding analyst expectations.

[briarberry] 22/10/2010 16:32

POMO Question = Does the Fed usually do so many POMOs ? I cannot remember seeing so many. Do they give a reason anywhere ?

Answer = All part of the QL1.5 program. $32 billion target this month.
(according to

Fed just bought another $2.5 billion in Treasuries, settling Monday. The difference next week versus this week is that next week Fed buying will be met with a wall of Treasury supply

[briarberry] 21/10/2010 23:14

The Fed has done a POMO every few days, what going on ???

20 Oct $0.6bn
18 Oct $6.3bn
15 Oct $4.7bn
06 Oct $2.1bn
05 Oct $5.1bn

[briarberry] 19/10/2010 15:26

Goldman Sachs quarterly profit falls 40%

[briarberry] 18/10/2010 21:33

Apple Q4 revenue $20.34 bln vs $12.21 bln
Apple Q4 net income $4.64 vs $2.77

[briarberry] 18/10/2010 16:56

Citi only made a profit because they lowered their provisions for losses...

Citigroup's quarterly revenue was $20.74 billion, down from $23.14 billion in the year-ago period.

Credit provisions at the company fell to $5.92 billion, down from $9.1 billion in the year-ago quarter and $6.67 billion in the second quarter of 2010.

Citigroup's local consumer lending business generated revenue of $3.5 billion, down 16% from the previous quarter because of losses on asset sales and a continued decline in balances.

[briarberry] 16/10/2010 21:57

Bancor - a few people talking about Bancor...

The Bancor was to be backed by barter and its value expressed in weight of gold.

Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 Keynes' proposal is winning in importance: In a speech delivered in March 2009 entitled Reform the International Monetary System, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China called Keynes' bancor approach "farsighted" and proposed the adoption of IMF SDRs as a global reserve currency as a response to the financial crisis of 2007–2010.

[briarberry] 15/10/2010 20:08

Todays Fed POMO $4.7Bn

[briarberry] 15/10/2010 18:26

The world trade imbalance is still there and the more money the Fed pumps in the more stuff the US people buy from China and other exporter nations...


The US trade deficit with China was at an all-time high of $28bn (£17.43bn) in August, up 8.2%. So far this year, the trade deficit is running 20.6% higher than the 2009 pace.

[briarberry] 15/10/2010 17:47

NDX index being held up by just 3 stocks...

NDX up 27, of that AMZN contributing 2 pts, AAPL contributing 10.5 pts and GOOG 8.9 pts

[briarberry] 15/10/2010 15:22

Foreclosure gate got JPM, (plus their silver shorts) ???

[briarberry] 15/10/2010 13:17

Ben Bernanke Speaks
8:15 AM ET

Bernanke: Risk of deflation higher than desirable
Bernanke: Too low inflation to last for some time
Bernanke: High unemployment rate likely to linger
Bernanke backs cautious approach on bond buys

[briarberry] 15/10/2010 12:53

Do index funds protect against inflation? Brazil 1968-2004

On the Brazilian stock index graph, we see that in this 36 year period, stock prices rose ten-fold and dropped 90%, twice - extreme volatility to match extreme inflation.

Furthermore, the graph shows that in US dollar terms, Brazilian stocks offered no protection at all against inflation.

Throughout most of this period, inflation ran about 20-25% a year, except in the early 1990s, when there was hyperinflation of over 1000% a year.



The green line represents the São Paulo stock index converted into US dollars.

[briarberry] 15/10/2010 11:47

GE industrial bellwether

GE Q3 total revenue $35.89B vs $37.8B
GE Q3 earnings 18C vs 23C

Analysts had seen GE earnings of 27C ???

less than last year, not a good sign

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 21:54

I wonder if anyone would stop paying their mortgage because they thought that the bank might not have the paperwork to foreclose them???


U.S. bank credit-default swap spreads "have widened sharply amid fears of prolonged litigation," said Gavan Nolan, vice president of credit research at Markit, in a note. "Bank of America's spreads are now at their widest levels since July 2009. There are also concerns that the issue could have a damaging effect on the fragile U.S. housing market."

Separately, U.S. foreclosure filings rose 3% in September from the previous month, RealtyTrac said Thursday.

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 21:05

Google Q3 rev $7.29 bln vs $5.95 bln
Google Q3 net income $6.72 a share vs $5.13

it's not all good news though
AMD Q3 loss 17c vs 18c loss year ago

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 20:58

Gasoline - The indicator that doesn't lie because it's measured in barrels and not in printed currency...

The demand side may be signaling consumer weakness. At minus 1.1 percent, on-year gasoline demand is the weakest since February. Gasoline output, at 8.7 million barrels per day, is the lowest since February.

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 20:11

Foreclosure gate

#1 According to the Associated Press, financial institutions were hiring just about whoever they could find, including hair stylists and Wal-Mart employees, as "foreclosure experts" to help them rush through the massive backlog of foreclosures that were rapidly piling up.

#2 There is soon going to be a colossal legal scramble to figure out who actually owns millions of U.S. mortgages.

How do you foreclose on a home when you can't figure out who owns it because the original mortgage is part of a derivatives package that has been sliced and diced so many ways that its legal ownership is often unrecognizable?

#3 Legal battles over foreclosure documents could soon spawn thousands upon thousands of lawsuits across the United States.

#4 The problems with foreclosure paperwork may be more widespread than anyone would have dared to imagine.

#5 If some banks discover that they are missing the paperwork for large numbers of mortgages (as is currently being alleged), those banks could be forced to significantly revalue those assets (as in "close to zero") on their balance sheets.

#6 Renowned investor Jim Sinclair is actually warning that the collapse of securitized mortgage debt could be the "final shot" that will wipe out many financial institutions across the United States.

[briarberry] 14/10/2010 20:00

Foreclosure gate ??? BKX down 3.7%...



although this is only down 1%