Empire Metals Share Discussion Threads

[qipincha] 12/8/2009 09:30

anyway, we have a strong morning

Time Price Volume Value Buy/Sell Type
09:03 5.48p 17,928 £982 Buy O
09:00 5.25p 56,857 £2,985 Unknown O
08:56 5.18p 19,323 £1,000 Sell O
08:55 5.44p 130,000 £7,072 Buy O
08:55 5.44p 130,000 £7,072 Buy O
08:54 5.18p 19,094 £988 Sell O
08:48 5.40p 10,000 £540 Buy O
08:44 5.40p 2,800 £151 Buy O
08:43 5.25p 9,258 £486 Unknown O
08:43 5.15p 16,666 £858 Sell O
08:40 5.05p 9,905 £500 Sell O
08:39 5.05p 8,000 £404 Sell O
08:38 5.50p 13,984 £769 Unknown O
08:37 5.50p 14,000 £770 Unknown O
08:36 5.50p 7,818 £430 Unknown O
08:32 5.05p 5,000 £252 Sell O
08:29 5.50p 9,090 £500 Unknown O
08:28 5.50p 18,769 £1,032 Unknown O
08:25 6.00p 8,000 £480 Buy O
08:24 5.55p 36,036 £2,000 Buy O
08:22 5.00p 21,644 £1,082 Sell O
08:22 5.00p 10,000 £500 Sell O
08:21 5.00p 100,000 £5,000 Sell O
08:19 5.60p 20,541 £1,150 Buy O
08:18 5.65p 8,629 £488 Buy O
08:18 5.60p 17,546 £983 Buy O
08:17 5.65p 4,016 £227 Buy O
08:16 5.65p 10,358 £585 Buy O
08:10 5.70p 17,220 £982 Buy O
08:08 5.72p 20,000 £1,143 Buy O
08:07 5.15p 3,000 £154 Sell O
08:05 5.38p 18,383 £988 Sell O
08:05 5.38p 10,000 £538 Buy O
08:04 5.50p 19,704 £1,084 Buy O
08:03 5.50p 4,000 £220 Buy O
08:03 5.38p 18,604 £1,000 Buy O
08:03 5.00p 14,778 £739 Sell O
08:03 5.38p 686 £37 Buy O
08:02 5.25p 10,000 £525 Unknown O
08:02 5.38p 19,000 £1,021 Buy O
08:02 5.25p 10,000 £525 Buy O
08:02 5.38p 60,000 £3,225 Buy O
08:00 5.25p 2,857 £150 Buy O
08:00 5.25p 4,492 £236 Buy O
08:00 4.55p 10,000 £455 Sell O

[thearcticfox] 12/8/2009 09:28

Bobsidian is one of the few people on this thread who know what he's talking about. This is a likely pump and dump.

[qipincha] 12/8/2009 09:27

To Bob,

I don't think it is a bad thing to have a parent company like Engel.
At least, they secure part of the loan.

Please check the definition of bank guarantee
which means if eee can not pay back money on time, parent company has to cover the debt.
I don't think it is a bad thing.

Regarding the holding company is not eee itself, what's the problem with that?

[very quick] 12/8/2009 09:14

The value of Vitosha & Panorama is 15.4 million euro's alone, not to mention the other stuff.

Construction co's have big loans. LOL

bobsidian: get a grip

Read my posts 279/280/281/282

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

[bottompicker] 12/8/2009 09:07

the MM's arent giving a fair spread on this. Price goes through the roof, so they widen the spread, walk it down. When those same MMs can trade within the spreads, its no wonder they make vast amounts of money, they can just buy at 4.50p and sell at 6p which a normal person can only buy at 6p and sell at 4.50p.

How is that being masters of the universe?

[bobsidian] 12/8/2009 08:55

The AIM listed market has seen a "dash for trash" as funds have flooded in to buy up equity in technically bankrupt companies. This phenomenon has been much commented on in the media.

IPI is not EEE. For every success there may be a failure. A red flag amongst a series of red flags lies in the corporate structure of EEE. Did you know that EEE was not the main holding or parent company in the larger group of companies ? It is unusual in a large group of companies for the share issuing entity to be any other than the main holding or parent company.

Add to that the debt profile of EEE. The problem that they appear to have is that a significant proportion of their debt is in the form of loans rather than short term facilities and credit lines and most of those loans are falling due within months. It may not be enough to be able to pay back "most" of the debt as it falls due. They have borrowed from a series of financial institutions across eastern europe to fund their activities on a project by project basis. Failing to be able to pay just one could trigger a collapse in this house of cards as the financial institutions involved rush to enforce their security.

Any business involved in property has seen the value of their collateral collapse over the course of the last 2 years. And being able to sell all of their stock of constructed properties is not a given due to restrictions in availability of mortgage finance across eastern europe. Any more current revaluation of their asset holdings and stock of land and work-in-progress may reveal just how under water EEE actually are. As you say the results of EEE may reveal all...if they have the luxury of time to report.

All imho.

[very quick] 12/8/2009 08:33

Like i said yesterday, there will be more fireworks here at the end of the month with the results, maybe we will get the sale value of Panorama.

I said a fair current share price is @ 10-12p

[qipincha] 12/8/2009 08:20

hi bob,

thanks for your detailed reply.
just a quick reply of why I said I do not worry their debt...
1. compare with other companies' debt level
please look at company, for example ipi, how much their net asset--GBP(21.1m) , which is negative. as their debt is much more than their asset value. then look at their share price, do you think eee deserve a bit rise?

2. based on eee's financial report, their debt level is slightly over 40m,with parent company support and repayment by selling their completed properties, most of their debt is secured, sounds reasonable. Only around 10m left on their debt book, do you think that is much?

I will find another time to explain more. However, just be patient, we shall see eee results whithin a few weeks' time, let us see.

[bobsidian] 12/8/2009 00:09

"Looking at the company debt, I am not worrying as the amount is not significant at all."

In a world where so many construction companies have gone under due to their inability to refinance, that is indeed a brave comment to make. EEE is leveraged to the hilt and has admitted in the notes to its financial statements that it may not be able to realise enough from certain projects to cover their costs. In large part, their costs have become their debt. Financial reporting by its nature tends to accentuate the positives and underplay the negatives unless otherwise compelled to so do.

It is noteworthy that unlike quite a few U.K. based housebuilders, EEE has not taken anywhere near the same level of writedowns to its owned land or its stock of property available for sale. It is quite understandable that they would be loathe to do so as just such an exercise could seriously impair key debt and liquidity ratios and trigger an unwinding of the group structure as debt attaches itself to assets held within different subsidiaries and the subsidiaries themselves detach from the group.

It takes time to refinance and restructure, of that there is no doubt. But the timing of the clarification of certain elements of its inter-company borrowings is interesting. What triggered the need for such a clarification ? It could not be its share price performance as it has been on a downward trajectory for quite some time. So once again, what was the trigger ?

Access to capital markets may have been effectively closed off with there being a distinct absence of willing underwriters to any possible capital raising exercise. Furthermore, the parent company may not have access to sufficient means to effectively preclude dilution of its own stake with unspecified and little understood implications for the group structure as a whole. So to a large extent EEE may be on their own. Any hint at a failure to satisfactorily conclude the sale of the panorama project may spell the end of this entity.

"don't understand where these pump and dump discussions come from..."

Stockmarket history in general and the AIM listed market in particular is littered with not insubstantial "dead cat bounces" immediately prior to the failure of entities. But equally, and certainly recently, there are shares with exposure to real estate valued at fractions of their apparent underlying worth that have risen like phoenix from ashes - but not without Level 2 signifying more supportive activity than shown on EEE.

"my advice, do not affect by what others saying, do your own research and do what you want"

Absolutely. But do indeed do your own research - particularly when there are more questions than answers. Momentum and the appearance of momentum are alluring and "pump and dump" exercises rely on that allure.

A share to watch as events unfold.

All imho.

[guru11] 11/8/2009 22:44

As one said above, one can be trapped into a share like this for many months, unless it continues to bounce back up.

The question is -
is it a one day wonder or
is there substance here and reasoning why it went up ??

Time will tell!

[qipincha] 11/8/2009 20:47

strong performance
end of the day

given current economic enviroment, borrowing money is always difficult. Looking at the company debt, I am not worrying as the amount is not significant at all. and the completed project can obviously generate enough money to pay off most of their debt.

to me, this is a good investment opportunity after efd and cbi...

don't understand where these pump and dump discussions come from,I have put my money on this share a long time ago, don't think a few people's pump and dump can change thing dramatically...

my advice, do not affect by what others saying, do your own research and do what you want!

[very quick] 11/8/2009 14:22

Level 2

2--20,000--4.0-5.5--20,000--2

[parvez] 11/8/2009 14:20

MMs are offering as well as bidding in a 75K

[very quick] 11/8/2009 13:32

Watch out for the results @ 28th August 2009

[bobsidian] 11/8/2009 13:32

Yes. The share price is being quietly walked back down with large numbers of shares being offloaded.

If anyone has a doubt as to the perilous state of the finances of EEE, take a look at the last set of audited financial statements. Take a look at the amount of debt that is falling due for repayment within one year. Then take a look at the security obtained by some of its maturing loans. Suddenly on a calling in of loans the apparent value in the Balance Sheet could easily evaporate.

Then take one look at the array of companies forming its corporate structure - Enronesque in its complexity. For one reason or another the parent company has filtered funding through subsidiaries rather than direct to EEE. Why ?

Interestingly KPMG appear to have given a clean audit report without seeing the need to comment on going concern - most unusual given that so much of the debt of EEE is falling due for repayment within one year and certainly unusual for the current economic climate and the sector to which EEE has exposure.

If you own shares in EEE, exactly what are you owning ? If the corporate structure disintegrates, exactly what are you left with ?

Buyer beware.

All imho.

[very quick] 11/8/2009 13:23

Engel Market Cap: Current: 4.61 million
NAV: 36.56p

So current share price is well below What the real Market Cap and NAV is.

I see 12p as a fair price at 10.2 million Market Cap.

[very quick] 11/8/2009 13:18

The Panorama Project has 46 Units.
The Vitosha project has 164 units.

[very quick] 11/8/2009 13:17

ENGEL has finished building the VITOSHA & PANORAMA residential combined 210 apartments with a combined value of 15.4 million Euro's

So if the sell Panorama for lets say 6-8 million Euro's, thats not bad.

[very quick] 11/8/2009 13:09

Results @28th August and will include the value of the sale of Panorama.
This will be back to 10p by the end of the month.

[parvez] 11/8/2009 12:58

what has stabalised?