Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[amt] 01/2/2024 19:32

OK still makes share price at about 30p.
So does look a high risk high reward share

[brileyloucan] 01/2/2024 18:07

There are some very heroic assumptions in that NPV calculation:
Commission and pay for a study and then don't use the prices that they come up with for Struvite.
Using a MOP price of $412/t when currently around $300/t
Using an 8% discount factor. For this level of risk reality is that 12%-15% is more reasonable.

On the bright side they do provide a stress grid. If you pick the top left box you get $0.8bn and if I halve that to roughly account for a more sensible discount factor (use of 12% rather than 8% over 20 year mine life with capex upfront) you get $400m. So still underpriced. Then discount a bit further to account for time to actually get into production.

Markets maybe giving it a 10% COS.

I hold but will add more on ESIA and funding completion. Even at triple the price would be a better risk reward.

[amt] 01/2/2024 17:00

The NPV of the project is 80 times the current market cap.
Does that mean the share price will go from 2p to say one quid if the project is approved ?

[pensionplanner] 01/2/2024 15:29

One thing for sure the world will need more and more fertilisers.

Don't post that often, but just buy shares for the long view.

[donald pond] 01/2/2024 14:47

Potentially Parob. But there's very little interest in AIM at the moment. This could easily be 10/12p in a more positive market

[pensionplanner] 01/2/2024 14:46

Don't presume they will get the patent. Its suggested to be patent applied for but not always that easy especially with chemical process rather than inventing a device.

Hope it does get it, but still holding here as either way the project always had legs provided it gets clearance from authorities.

[parob] 01/2/2024 14:38

Someone has posted this comment in the telegram group. Any thoughts on it?"What the market needs to understand, is this new KMP process (that's getting patented) will be the industry standard for ALL potash projects around the world, and Emmerson will be licensing it to ALL of those companies"

[parob] 01/2/2024 14:12

"A real gamechanger for the project". Watch $EML's CEO, Graham Clarke, provide an overview of the Khemisset Multi-mineral Process, explaining how it significantly reduces the Project's environmental impact, and greatly improves its economic returns hTTps://www.youtube.com/embed/jBDm-0WoUgk

[parob] 01/2/2024 09:55

If todays news doesn't significantly increase the chances of getting the environment permit I don't know what will.

[cyberbub] 01/2/2024 09:22

Yes the value in the project is abundantly clear, and even larger as of today. The question has been, for the last 2 years since the Moroccans started their go-slow: will it be Emmerson shareholders that realise that value?I'm keeping an eye out again here...

[apfindley] 01/2/2024 09:14

Yawn.The return of cyberbub. How timely.

[nash19] 01/2/2024 09:10

When you dig a 1 km decline for a mine people tend to know about it. I dont think it was intended to be a secret either.The announcement today is a decent reminder of the big boy value of this project. Sense and gravity will take hold here.The malaysians are in this to build a world class potash mine, the thesis is only enhanced since they invested. EmL banging around between 20 and 50m in value is utterly meaningless in the context.

[cyberbub] 01/2/2024 08:59

Just looking in here after a while. Great news in principle this morning, impressive development, and a huge jump in NPV, but it's all useless if the government still refuse to issue the ESIA. I see from recent posts that OCP are planning to develop the central section and apparently have already started opening a decline, had no one been aware of this before it was announced? I agree it seems odd for them to do that while surrounded by Emmerson property, are they also setting up a separate mine plant?? That would seem very inefficient. There is definitely something going on, but what, and when, anything will happen is anyone's guess. Certainly the Singaporean investors will be pretty unhappy at the moment, 70% down on their investment price, hopefully they are rattling some cages in Rabat, although it seems that the Moroccan govt are impervious to any sort of friendly pressure or reasonable deadline planning.

[apotheki] 01/2/2024 07:45

Chief Executive Officer, Graham Clarke, said: "The Khemisset Multi-mineral Process is an exciting, innovative development that represents a major improvement both environmentally and economically.

"The KMP arose from our team continuously exploring ways to minimise impact on the environment, particularly when it comes to water; we are always striving to protect this critical resource. It also forms part of the optimisation work that we had committed to do in discussions with water authorities in H1 2023. The KMP addresses these issues, while also delivering significant economic upside through the production of new fertiliser products to complement Khemisset's potash.

"The KMP transforms the environmental credentials of the Project by eliminating the requirement for the disposal of brines through DWI and significantly reducing process water consumption, both important points for the Moroccan authorities and local communities. We believe it further strengthens the case for approving our Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ("ESIA").

"Struvite and vivianite are multi-nutrient fertilisers containing phosphate, nitrogen, magnesium, and iron respectively. Their lower solubility means the nutrients are released over a longer period, and are less prone to being washed away by rain. This means that application rates can be less frequent, and phosphate run-offs that cause eutrophication of streams and lakes are significantly reduced.

"As part of our Scoping Study, we have updated our economic estimates for the Project, both based on the Original Design and the new KMP. Cost inflation since 2020 has inevitably resulted in an increase in capex of approximately 31% for the Original Design. In the case of the KMP, the elimination of DWI reduces this increase to 28%.

"More significantly, the addition of new revenue sources delivers considerable economic benefits, with the IRR of 40% for the Project including the KMP considerably higher than most potash projects in development.

"The KMP process sets a new benchmark for the industry. The Company is excited by the results of the study and is eager to progress the findings.

"With regards to the ESIA approval, we believe that the Moroccan authorities are continuing to assess the Company's application. We will provide further updates on all matters, including any formal notifications regarding the ESIA, in due course."

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/2/2024 07:45

#Cottoner, not only that it has OCP either side looking to develop their own projects, if we control the template, this again points towards some sort of eventual project ownership and consolidation..?

[cottoner] 01/2/2024 07:42

Also..

KMP has significant value as intellectual property with additional potential licencing revenues. The Company currently has a patent pending

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/2/2024 07:41

Very pleased with that update today given the reason the local permitting authorities were not able to approve our ESIA was on the basis of water consumption and tailings..Onward and upward.. :o)

[nash19] 01/2/2024 07:38

Wow didnt expect that. There is clearly a lot going on below the water line here, thats the most reassuring for me. This is a seriius and advanced project.

[allinforabigprofit] 01/2/2024 07:37

Sets a company apart from the State player a very positive move gain approval.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/2/2024 07:10

Very nice RNS this morning detailing new processing methods reducing water consumption and no tailings at Khemisset with updated project CAPEX estimates..

[nash19] 28/1/2024 21:56

And we were told the delay was this committee being scheduled. If its scheduled, has met and did nothing on EML. Imo thats negative.Its already 3rd world shambolic bullsh1t that the morrocans have approved OCP ESIA 2 years agao and found no way thru for EML. When it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and kicks you in the face repeatedly like a duck...its a duck.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/1/2024 14:38

#APF, fair point on the wording and interpretation of project approval, but consider the limitations of the translation from Arabic, I read it as permitting approved or awarded..

We will have to see what comes our way.. :o)

[apfindley] 28/1/2024 10:14

Why?These 42 are for "project approval"Emmerson already have project approved and mining licenses in order. They are awaiting Esia to pass environmental, which is years ahead of project approval stages.Why should we need an rns for something which relates to other projects? Weird view Nash.

[nash19] 27/1/2024 21:16

Now this is v interesting. Its fauroy binary - if EML on this list 5p+ next week.If its nit turn off the lights. EmL better be ready wuth RNS.