Electrocomponents Share Discussion Threads

[spyderman] 21/6/2004 09:06

i believe the shares are ex-div on wednesday

[spyderman] 17/6/2004 09:55

hi mog, and 12.6p of that yield coming out next week

[mog] 17/6/2004 09:45

Yes I occasionally pop in! Looks like Capital Group Companies Inc has been buying. I just like this company for it yield (about5%) and potential for growth as world economies recover. I also use them (RS Components is their trading name) and they are always very efficient.

[spyderman] 17/6/2004 09:28

is anybody there?

[spyderman] 17/6/2004 08:41

huge vols yesterday, is it investors rushing in ahead of divvy or something else going on?

[spyderman] 16/6/2004 20:25

gosh, 8.2m buys vs 1.5m sells, anyone heard any rumours?

[spyderman] 15/6/2004 10:19

i think ECM needs about 25-30% to get back into FTSE

[spyderman] 15/6/2004 10:15

divvy coming out next week, will be interesting to see what shares do

[spyderman] 04/6/2004 10:53

and thats up 7.1% on last year.... wonder what divvy will be growing at when things are better eg europe in recovery

[spyderman] 04/6/2004 10:42

someone after the 12.6p divvy going ex on june 23, about 3.5% of yield

[huwrayhenry] 16/5/2004 12:29

Recent uptrend on hold at the moment.
Short to rising support at 325 or hold for 300.
HH.

[blunderbuss] 23/4/2004 12:32

Hmmmmmm, someone seems to be short of this stock to pay today's price.

[the bounty hunter] 13/4/2004 20:16

Electrocomponents (ECM)

Business

ECM offers a high service distribution to technical users, offering 300,000 products to over 1.5 million end user customers. Product range includes: automation, books, cable and connectors, consumables, electricals, electronic devices, health and safety, information technology, mechanical, office equipment, power supplies, test and measurement and tools. ECM has 26 operating companies: 1 in the UK, 11 in the rest of Europe and 14 in the rest of the world.

Key Financial figures and overview

Market capitalisation of £1.5 billion, based on current price of 353.75p.
Turnover about £743 million - including £366m in UK, £224m in rest of Europe and £103m in North America.
Estimated eps (before goodwill amort) of 18p, giving p/e of about 20
Current dividend yield 4.8%
Dividend cover: less than one
Net assets 88 p per share at 30 Sept 2003
Net debt of £69 million at 30 Sept 2003.
Estimated pension deficit after tax £34m at 30 Sept 2003
Over 5,000 employees.
High margins in UK business – attempts to diversify client base from manufacturing into other sectors has had limited success.

Trends
Turnover: £711m (2000); £824m (2001); £760m (2002); £744m (2003).
Pre-tax profit: £112m (2000); £115m (2001); £124m (2002); £101m (2003);
Estimated £106m (2004).

1988 to date chart



Strong uptrend existed from 1991 to the end of 2000 with the price rising from 100p in early 1991 to 830p on 1 Sep. 2000. A large part of this gain has been reversed since this time, hitting a low of 225p in March 2003. Recent support levels appear to be around 335-340 and longer term support at 280-95 being form March 2003 and around 300-330p back in 1988 & 1989.

One-year chart



After hitting a low on 12 March 2003 of 225, ECM recovered in a strong uptrend to 385 on 22 August 2003. It then retraced part of the gain late August/early September before falling 25p on 23 September on disappointing trading update. It hit a recent closing low of 315.25 on the 26 September 2003. Since that point, it has remained in a tight trading range – 315.25 to 362. The rise in share price in late March/early April was probably partly due to 1.7 million increase in holding of Capital Group Companies Inc.




5-day chart

Last monday saw another attempt to break through 120 day resistance around 362 and was rejected soundly.



Current moving average prices

Cur price 353.75
20 day ma 342,1
50 day ma 347,5
200 day ma 345.5



Recent closing high/lows recorded during recent periods
15 day 30 day 60 day 90 day 120 day since 23/9/02
high 360,75 360,75 361,5 361,5 362,5 385,75
low 327,25 327,25 327,25 316,75 316,75 225,25




Price Volatility

Average daily volatility calculated over year to date is 4.3p per day.

Average volume in 2004

Average daily volume in 2004 to date is 3,055k




RSI 14 & 21 daily & weekly stats

weekly daily
RSI 21 49.2 56.4
RSI 14 63.3 64.6




RSI over 70 has provided a good sell signal and 30 a buy signal. RSI 14 daily and weekly are currently towards the top end of its recent range.






Performance relative to ftse 100



ECM has closely tracked ftse over last 3 months.


Sector Competitors
Premier Farnell (PFL) – turnover £764m, mkt cap £896k.





Institutional holdings

Five substantial shareholdings are reported in last annual report, with between 3 and 5%.

Directors' purchases/sales during last year
Insignificant.

Last Year end
31 March 2004 – results due in May 2004

Recent key dates
Trading Statement – 23 March 2004
Interim - 5 November 2003
Trading Statement – 23 September 2003
AGM – 18 July 2003
Final – 29 May 2003

Ex-dividend dates
Interim: 17 December 2003
Final: 18 June 2003

Recent broker notes
Coverage started by CFSB:
22 Sep – CFSB set price target at 377p with neutral rating.

Bull points
Mgt believe that by growing market share in other markets to UK levels will result in significant value creation for shareholders – both in volumes and margins. ECM has had a progressive dividend policy.

Bear points
Negligible growth in revenue and profit over last 4 years. UK business suffering due to lack of growth in manufacturing. Other sectors such as health etc have not been able to offset weakness in manufacturing. Margins in UK remain very high and may be subject to pressure at some stage in future. Estimated p/e ratio of 20 appears high for company with a lack of revenue and profit growth. Dividend is not covered by profits after tax and looks excessive unless rapid bottom line growth is resumed.

Assessment
ECM's rating is considered too high and looks good short material and a visit back to the March 2003 low may occur. A stop loss at 365 should be set and re-enter short position at 365 on downside.

[harleymaxwell] 16/3/2004 12:19

anyone have any coments on this. graph looks like a downtrend in place??

[josephmsmith] 17/12/2003 23:24

so no allowance for xd today?

[harleymaxwell] 17/12/2003 09:48

mad

any more conclusive??

[mad4it] 16/12/2003 12:40

Hmmm! Looks like a head and shoulders formation on the 3 month chart, which is nearly complete.

...but more worryingly there is a bigger one forming on the one year from the March lows.

[harleymaxwell] 16/12/2003 12:07

any long term views on this - looks like going lower

[huwrayhenry] 11/9/2003 22:08

now 347, proberly bounce a bit...
may go long now? watch PFL which has fallen much further for up bias.
HH.

[alared] 22/8/2003 17:06

Come Sept. come 425p Haw Haw, Haw Haw.

[alared] 22/8/2003 11:23

Bit of profit taking before the L O N G weekend.

[alared] 21/8/2003 10:23

No way,if your shorting this you`re on a loser,425p next test

[huwrayhenry] 20/8/2003 22:45

Well it's up thru 360 - now back down to it!
HH.

[alared] 15/8/2003 14:52

Very light volume though!

[dwschag] 15/8/2003 13:02

I hope so
Glenn